NFL Picks – Week 8 by Greg Sellers

Good to see my picks of the week finally coming through (that’s good for me, that’s for sure).

Picks of the Week = 3-1 (week 7 ), 7-6-1 (blog season total).  Minnesota was so close to making that a perfect week.  Underdogs just keep winning, this season has been crazy.  You will see this week that I’m going to lean on a lot of underdogs.

Upset Pick = 1-1, 1-3 (blog season total).  Okay, so my promise didn’t come to fruition but it was a Percy Harvin foot of making it happen.  It’s fun to watch Favre, I’ll hate it once he is gone.

Quick Picks = 4-6 (week 6), 13-13 (blog season total).  So I got burned by betting my Bears and going against my better judgment, taking the 9ers and Cowboys.  One thing I have learned over the years is quit guessing when a hot team will go cold or a cold team will get hot.  You would rather keep winning until that one loss then keep losing while you try to guess when it’ll turn.  I knew better.

I’m leaving this section for a Bears rant.  Thank goodness it’s a bye week because I can’t be pissed off over a team that just drives me nuts.  I understand the Bears have a terrible O-line and struggle to run from time to time but you can’t go away from it.  It makes no sense to abandon the run like they have the past two games even though they have both been close.  They ran around 13 teams each game, that’s stupid.  When Cutler is getting sacked a billion times a game it might be smart to run some draws and screen passes to stop the defenders from cheating.  Also, they’re rushing average per attempt the past two games haven’t been below 3.5.  Let’s do simple math, 3 downs times 3.5 equals 10.5, that’s a first down!  This has to change and I believe it will after the bye week.

Another thing, Lovie Smith is terrible at challenges.  It was pretty funny that all my friends were making fun of him this past Sunday because it’s comical at this point.  What put the icing on the cake was Mike Lombardi devoting an entire article on how terrible he is and put stats to it on nfl.com.  We’ve been saying this for years.

Enough of the rant, let's make some money!

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1.       Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) – I’m very surprised this isn’t a 3 point game or higher.  The Raiders are showing they are a decent team, the AFC is much stronger than the NFC and Seattle is not good away from home (the Bears game doesn’t count, they suck).  A healthy McFadden I think will run all over the place.

2.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals – I’m surprised Vegas is thinking these two teams are even (don’t forget, you get 3 points for being home).  The Bucs have an edge to them right now and the Cardinals are a mess.  Plus, my buddy Joe has told me that those fans barely knew who was on that team when they were making a super bowl run, I doubt the crowd will matter.

3.       Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas is finally starting to swing away from Bengals but even though they are at home, I still think they shouldn’t be favored.  Miami is undefeated on the road and Carson just doesn’t have it.

4.       Tennessee (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers – Wow, they really think San Diego Chargers are the better team, really!?  This is your classic, the Chargers need to turn it around soon but like I said earlier, quit guessing when it’ll happen.  Keep going against them until you see it and I’m riding Tennessee hard lately, and they have disappointed.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys – So the Cowboys are bad, they lose their QB for pretty much the season and they are favored by 6.5??? I know the Jags are not that good but let’s be honest, Cowboys shouldn’t be giving 6.5 to anybody.  Plus, like I said earlier, AFC is so much better than the NFC.

Upset of the Week

See Tampa Bay – I just think they are better.  No need for more explanation.

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

Quick note on the blurbs.  You noticed that my main picks are mainly underdogs and my other picks are favorites?  That’s why I don’t trust them, the underdogs have been cleaning house this year.

1.      Denver Broncos (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers – The reason why I put vs. is that it’s played in England (not Arkansas Ernie, the country).  This is your typical both teams suck, take the points.  Keep this in mind, if they have terrible weather which happens a lot in England, take the under at 42.

2.      Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-3) – I was surprised to see the Lions favored but they are undefeated against the spread.  Here’s a suggestion, you wait to make this bet because I would think the line will move towards the Redskins, it’s much better to take that pick at -2.5.

3.      Green Bay Packers @ NY Jets (-6) – Pack still banged up and Jets are really good.

4.      Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams (-3) – Pay attention here, if Stephen Jackson is hurt and not playing, switch this pick.  He’s the most important guy to that team.

5.      Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) – I don’t know why I’m scared of this pick.  This should be an easy win for the Chiefs but I will admit, the Bills are getting better.  If the Bills cover this, I think it’s time to start picking them as underdogs.

6.      Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots – The line is saying -5 for the Patriots and is closed due to not knowing the status of Favre.  To be honest, this will be the only game this year I’m making no pick at all.  There are too many variables right now.

7.      Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (-1) – Steelers I think are better but the Saints aren’t done.  I believe a rowdy Sunday night crowd will the lift the Saints

8.   Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) – Ughhh, this one is tough but I have always gone with Peyton Manning at home on a night game.  It think he makes a statement in this one.

Week 7 Picks by Greg Sellers

That’s the bounce back week I was looking for.  Keep one thing in mind, I moved the Tennessee game as one of my picks of the week (realize, my picks of the week affect my pocket book).  On to the recap.

Picks of the Week = 2-2-1 (week 6 ), 4-5-1 (blog season total).  Not too bad but a strange set of way to get there.  First, I don’t want to talk about the Bears.  Second,  the Jets shouldn’t have covered, the Titans hammered the terrible Jags, Oakland should have covered but didn’t and the Colts should have worked it.

Upset Pick = Lose, 0-2 (blog season total).  Thanks to the officials, they handed a pass interference that wasn’t even close.  That cost the Chiefs the game.  But, the Chiefs were in control all game and couldn’t pull it out.

Quick Picks = 6-2 (week 6), 9-7 (blog season total).  I wish I could be putting money on these picks last week, that’s how things go.

I have nothing special to talk about NFL for this week so I’m going to dedicate it to our softball team.  In the start of our double elimination tourney, we put down the second team in our league.  On top of that, they are the biggest aholes I have ever played against.  It was nice to shut their punkasses up and put ourselves closer to the championship.  I’m ready for us to make it rain!!!

On with the picks.  By the way, the weirdest week I’ve ever seen.  There are so many 3 point games.  It’s so tough to figure out who is so good and bad right now.

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1.       Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – If Atlanta is legit, they should easy put down the Bengals.  Also, Matt Ryan is money at home but shaky on the road.  As for Carson Palmers, he is terrible on the road and terrible at home.  That means Carson Palmer is terrible.

2.       Cleveland Browns (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints – This is your typical over reaction game.  Just because New Orleans rolled the overrated Bucs.  My rule is, take a hot team but I need to see it more than just one game.  Even though Colt McCoy doesn’t excite me, he did a good job hanging with arguably the best team in the league.  I see them holding it close.

3.       New England Patriots (+3) @ San Diego Chargers – So you’re telling me that these two teams are even, are you kidding me???  Antonio Gates is out and they are starting their third or fourth string running back.  Patriots don’t have let downs after good games, I think Bill will have their team ready for another big win, on the road no less.

4.       Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay Fudge – Brett Favre, hate him, love him, it doesn’t matter.  He is so about himself that this game matters a ton to him.  He just wants to always stick it to his former team no matter what he says.  Now they have Moss ready for a full week and Green Bay are so banged up.

Upset of the Week (double dose)

See Minnesota and Patriots – Not only do I think these two teams cover but they will both win straight up.  I’ll guarantee this; I’ll be back to even after this week for my upset picks

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1.      Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (under 41) – This pick is a shout out to my buddy Scott.  I couldn’t figure out what spread to pick but this will be low scoring, take the under.

2.      Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Line is still not up because of the uncertainty of the QB on Jags.  I’ve seen lines of -9 of chiefs, which scares me but I’m still rolling with them.

3.      Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles – I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten foot poll.  This is a gut pick.  The Eagles are up for a let down somewhere in the season and I’m guessing this is it.

4.      Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (-3) – I don’t want to talk about this game, let’s just move on.

5.      Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) – This will be your classic, we shouldn’t have lost our last game due to being conservative, we will take it out on a terrible team.

6.      San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Carolina Panthers – I’m going against my better judgment and giving the 9ers the benefit of the doubt, they can’t lose this game and only win by less than 3.

7.      St. Louis Rams (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I’m a complete Rams homer now.  I just have so many odd bets ridding on them.  If they can’t win this game, they won’t make my other bets come true.  Let’s go Sammy Sweetheart.

8.      Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Seattle Seahawks – I understand that the Seahawks are great on the road but I can’t see giving any NFC West team 7 points no matter who they play.  That division is terrible.

9.      Oakland Raiders (+8) @ Denver Broncos – Again, this division is terrible.  I will always take this many points on terrible teams playing terrible teams.

10.  NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) – You know my take on the Cowboys, overrated but this is one of those no one believes in us and we will crush them.  I hate this pick the most but sometimes you just use your heart.

Week Eight – Crazy Season Continues

For the second week in a row, the #1 team in the nation went down.  It probably won’t be the last time I say that this year.  It’s setting up to be a crazy 2^nd half of the season (yes, it is halfway over…very depressing).  Surprise, surprise the game of the week is once again in the SEC regardless of where ESPN takes Gameday.

SEC Games – 4-2 straight up last week; 46-10 for the season

Mississippi @ #23 Arkansas – The early battle for last place in the SEC West (yes, check the standings) takes Arkansas’ not-so-favorite son back to Fayetteville.  You know he will have a pompom in one hand and a microphone in the other to sing the fight song after the game to all three Rebels fans that show up.  Wasn’t Masoli a Heisman candidate at Oregon last year?  Is this just another example of HDN’s QB killing skills or is it a combination of bad Ole Miss skill personnel and SEC defenses?  I say a little of all of the above.  I could see the Hogs coming out a little flat, but the Hogs talent will win out in the end.  Hogs 38-23

#8 Alabama @ Tennessee – The game usually reserved for the third Saturday in October although it is on the fourth this year is the most special game of the year to me.  Sure Alabama has their hated rival in Auburn and Tennessee has its hated rival in Florida, but this rivalry is unique and sometimes hard to explain.  It is a rival where there is a mutual respect for one another.  Alabama is #8 on the college football all-time wins list and Tennessee is #9 (we’ll catch you one of these days Jamie!).  Just as the different colors of leaves begin to fall this time of year (including orange and red), it always signals it’s time for the game of the two winningest teams in the South to go at it one more time.  It seems like recently these two teams can’t both be good during the same year.  In the last 13 years, they have both been ranked only three times, including only once where they were both ranked in the top 10 (1999).  Even more amazing is that these two have never faced each other in the SEC championship game since it began in 1992.  On to the game…I still think Bama is feeling the sting of the loss from two weeks ago.  I don’t know how motivated they will be this week because they didn’t look too excited to be playing last week in the win over Ole Miss.  Once again (and more to come), they will be playing a team coming off of a bye week.  We know what both teams have by now.  Bama is still deep and very talented.  The Vols lack depth in many places, and Dooley has mentioned playing true Freshman QB Tyler Bray in the first half this week, which will likely pay off in the long run but not on Saturday.  Vols hang around for a while like they have in most of their losses this year, but Bama pulls away late.  Bama 28-13

#6 LSU @ #4 Auburn –  See “If I were a bettin’ man...” segment below.

Side note:  I do realize last in the SEC West equates to champions in the SEC East this year.

Notable Games Around the Nation – 1-2 straight up last week; 15-5 for the season

#1 Oklahoma @ #11 Missouri – This game looks a lot better with the rankings in front of the team names than what it is going to be.  Missouri managed to play their first road game of the year just last week!  How in the world do you manage that?  Give Missouri’s schedule to 75% of BCS teams, and they are undefeated and in the top 15.  They are a fraud!.  On the other hand, the Sooners play their best football when people are doubting them.  Some are suggesting this upset happens; I am not one of them.  The Sooners will be ready, and they have played in tougher places than Columbia, Missouri on a Saturday night.  Sooners 35-24

If I were a bettin’ man... – 0-2 against the spread last week; 8-8 for the season

Vegas is getting really tough as the weeks go by.  I’ll take one stab at a game I think is a little off this week.

#6 LSU (+6) @ #4 Auburn – Is Auburn a team of destiny with a tailor-made schedule to go to the BCS Title Game?  Is Cam Newton going to win the Heisman?  How many times have we seen this play out?  A hot team who has came out of nowhere to get all the love after an impressive win the week before.  Auburn has won three of its games by three points and another by eight.  The game last week was a lot closer than the final score.  They are not a juggernaut despite what some may think.  Auburn’s #1 SEC total offense squares off against LSU’s #1 SEC total defense.  On the other side, LSU’s #10 SEC offense faces Auburn’s #9 SEC defense.  This will be a great, hard-hitting game just like every game in the series the last 10 years or so.  I enjoy this game more each year than about any other SEC matchup.  Auburn has played a tough stretch of games in the SEC grind already, and it’s only mid-October.  LSU has been discounted because of their coach’s IQ or lack thereof.  What you can’t discount is the LSU defense.  These guys have an incredible future NFLer at every level of its defense.  Drake Nevis on the line, Kelvin Sheppard and Ryan Baker at linebackers, and a freak of an athlete that can match Cam Newton at corner back in Patrick Peterson.  When you have a great player at every level like that, your defense is going to shut some teams down.  I believe LSU is going to shut Newton’s running down (relatively speaking) and make him throw.  I haven’t been too impressed with Auburn’s WRs this year.  LSU’s offense will be able to score on Auburn’s defense also and maybe throw in a special teams TD.  Auburn will finally run out of juice this week, and then we will hear about this is their eighth week in a row and they were tired.  So once again a team that is getting all the love one week will find themselves with a loss (see Michigan, South Carolina, Ohio State) the next week, and their star will fall behind in the Heisman race.  LSU wins 24-21 straight up, and Les is a genius for at least another week.    

And They Muffed It...by Joseph Michael -

Coming soon…

Happy Saturday!

Week 6 NFL picks by Greg Sellers

What a rough start to the blog.  I had to pick a week when a lot of crazy upsets happened but don’t worry, I’ve bounced back every week.  This means you should go heavy on my picks.  Now that I’ve jinxed this week, let’s move on to the recap.

Picks of the Week = 2-3 (week 5 ), 2-3 (blog season total).  Did I really lose to Max Hall, Jake Delhomme (that’s all I need to say) and I hate you Houston (more on that in a bit).  The rest happened like I thought.

Upset Pick = Lose, 0-1 (blog season total).  Holy crap, could I have been more wrong on that one?  I guess if you’re going to lose, lose big so you don’t get your heart ripped out (thanks Succop)

Quick Picks = 3-5 (week 5), 3-5 (blog season total).  Let’s put it this way, the Packers won and the Bears rolled, that’s all I really cared about.

One thing I wanted to talk about this week, my 3 rules that I started using this year.  These rules have been great for me so far but when I go against them, I always get nailed.

Rule #1 - Don’t bet with your heart (or with beer in your system) you always get burned.  This is why I avoid betting on the Bears or the Vols unless there is just some crazy reason (in my head) I feel that it will work in my favor

Rule #2 – Don’t just bet because there is a game going on, what I like to call an action bet because you’re bored.  That has always killed me and I did it the first week of the season and hasn’t ever since.  What I mean by that is betting the Thursday and Friday college game along with the Sunday and Monday NFL game just because you want something to root for, don’t do it.  If you didn’t like it in the first place, why would you like it now?

Rule #3 – This is the one rule I have broke the most and can’t figure out why.  It’s called the personal team kryptonite.  That means, no matter if I bet for or against that certain team, I lose no matter what.  In college it VaTech and Pitt, they kill me.  I now have two for NFL, if you ever see me bet in my main picks portion, put up your mortgage the other way.  Those two teams are Houston and Atlanta, they are dead to me.

On to week 6, it’s time to MIR (make it rain)!!!  You know these picks are MITB, isn’t that right Scott and Ernie?

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1. Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears (-6) – Okay, fine, stop your laughing.  I know you’re saying but Greg that is your number #1 rule, how can that be your pick?  That’s a great question and here’s why.  Seattle is terrible on the road, 0-2 and both were by 17 points.  The Bears D is awesome right now and I think Bears win big, don’t worry, Cutler is back.
2. NY Jets (-3.5) @ Denver Broncos – I love Kyle Orton but you can’t be one dimensional against this Jets defense.  They are clicking on all cylinders right now and I don’t see it stopping here.  I know Denver plays tough at home but I think the Jets just man handle a team that has no running game.
3. Oakland Raiders (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers – I don’t understand this line at all.  Can people just stop thinking that San Fran is any good?  Maybe everyone just over valued them.  On top of it, they are in the worst division in football, how are they 0-5.  I know, it’s because they suck.  This just seems like an easy pick to me.
4. Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Washington Redskins – I have made a killing on picking Peyton Manning on Sunday or Monday night games with low spreads, especially now that they have their backs to the wall with two straight loses.  Redskins struggle to score and won’t be able to keep up, I love this pick.
Upset No Longer Lock of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston – Fact #1, I’m 3-0 picking them as an upset this year.  Fact #2, Houston can kiss my ass.  Is that good enough for you?

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1. San Diego Chargers (-9) @ St. Louis Rams – I want to thank the Rams for at least trying to win the division.  I enjoyed the ride.  They are banged up and SD has to win this one.
2. Baltimore Ravens @ New England (-2.5) – I have no idea on this one.  I feel Baltimore is better but Belichick is 7-0 after a bye week, I think they will be ready.
3. New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) – I can’t believe I’m leaning this way.  Is this your typical SB hangover, is Josh Freeman at least decent.  I guess I’m picking this because it’s a divisional game with the home team getting points.
4. Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) – I don’t trust either one of these teams, I think Falcons are overrated but the Eagles are so up and down.
5. Detroit Lions (+10.5) @ NY Giants – If I’m not mistaken, the Lions have covered every spread.  You never go away from what works, so I won’t.
6. Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers – Why, because I hate the Packers and they are overrated, that’s why.
7. Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) – Good luck Colt McCoy, I hope you don’t die in your first start.  Oh wait, I really don’t care, have fun getting pummeled.  The reason why this isn’t one of my main picks, I hate taking a divisional game with this many points, you’d be surprised how close these games can get even though it’s all pointing towards a blowout.
8. Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings – No line on this game because of not know if Brett Favre will play, oh wait, he’s Brett Favre, he’ll play.  I would take the Vikings if he starts but nothing more than 4 points.
9. Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – This game is close to making my picks of the week (it probably will, because I love action).  I just think Tennessee will control this game in the trenches, it won’t look pretty, but they’ll pull it out.

Week Seven – BCS Shakedown Begins

The first BCS rankings come out on Sunday.  We already had our first major change to the polls last week with Alabama going down.  Assuming they handle yet another creampuff, Boise State is already predicted to be the #1 team in the first BCS standings.  Even funnier than that is that Ohio State (#1 in both human polls) is predicted to be 4^th or 5^th in the BCS due to their low computer ranking.  I predict this will be the craziest, most debated BCS in its 13 years of existence due to:  1) the three highly ranked “non-BCS” teams, 2) likely no better than one loss SEC teams, and 3) Big 12 undefeateds that have played zero or one ranked team all season.

SEC Games – 5-2 straight up last week; 42-8 for the season

#10 South Carolina @ Kentucky – South Carolina has to be feeling pretty good about themselves these days.  They just beat Bama for the school’s first win ever against a #1 team.  Couple that with their already FOUR bowl victories in its school history, and they are quickly becoming a legit 2^nd-tier SEC team.  I predicted Kentucky to give Auburn fits last week, and they did just that with Aubie winning on a last-second field goal.  Under Spurrier, the Cocks have had many letdowns losing to the likes of Vandy and Kentucky when it appears that they are cruising in to the second part of the season a legit SEC East contender.  This year is the best shot they’ve ever had to win the East.  I think they win here, but close once again.  Cocks 24-23 

Mississippi St. @ #22 Florida – See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below.

#12 Arkansas @ #7 Auburn – The year of Auburn’s perfect schedule to make a run at the national title game continues this week with one of their most difficult games at home once again.  Cam Newton continues to impress.  The Hogs looked a little off last week; don’t know exactly what it is but something didn’t look right (at least they covered though!).  They have obviously had a problem putting together a whole game this year.  In three of their first five games this year, they have had a half where they have scored a TD or less.  In another game, they had two scoreless quarters.  Petrino has three wins against top 25 teams at Fayetteville – two being against Auburn and the other being against a Gus Malzahn coached Tulsa team.  Although this series has been unpredictable with the underdog, lower-ranked, or road teams winning its fair share, this one comes down to the game being played at Auburn to me.  The inconsistency of the Hog offense keeps me from picking them on the road this week.  They have become that team that puts up a lot of stats, but when they inch close to the redzone, something always happens.  Grab the TP; time to roll Toomer's Corner.  Auburn 33-31

In the “I’d rather go shopping for pumpkins at the local pumpkin patch instead of watching these” SEC games this week, Georgia over Vandy, LSU over McNeese St. and Alabama over Ole Miss.

Notable Games Around the Nation – 0-2 straight up last week; 14-3 for the season

#1 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin – A lot of the Ohio State haters are pointing to this one as when the Buckeyes go down and the national title game talk (and subsequent failure if they were to make it) ends.  I think Wisconsin is highly overrated.  They struggled at home against an average Arizona St. team that will finish in the middle of the pack in the PAC 10.  Their only other challenge was Michigan State, which they lost.  Since Ohio State only has to concentrate on winning a couple of tough games a year, they rarely have a letdown game.  Wisconsin will have the Buckeyes undivided attention, which is not good for the Badgers.  Ohio St. 27-13 

Texas @ #5 Nebraska (-9.5) – See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below. 

#15 Iowa @ Michigan – I am really putting two Big Ten games in the other notable games of the week?  I must be sick.  This will be an interesting one to me though.  A contrast in styles – fast offense versus a fundamentally sound, strong defense and an efficient offense versus a tackling optional defense.  Iowa’s defense is one of the best in the nation, and I think they contain Shoelace.  I’ll go with Iowa in this one although it is in the Big House.  Iowa 26-24 

If I were a bettin’ man... – 1-1 against the spread last week; 8-6 for the season

Texas @ #5 Nebraska (-9.5) – Husker players and fans have been counting down the days to this game for ten months now since they thought they were robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game in December.  The Huskers defense and Taylor Martinez’s QB play have led some blowouts so far for the Huskers.  The Horns have no identity on offense.  They’ve already tried to be a tough running team (hasn’t worked and won’t work against the Huskers front).  They are coming off of a bye, but I think their only other option is to unleash young Garrett Gilbert to throw the ball down the field like he hasn’t done up to this point.  I don’t think that will work this Saturday either going in to the most hostile game the Horns will be going into in a long time.  The usually cordial fans of the Huskers will be out for blood.  Also, something not to overlook…Bo Pelini and his brother Carl (D Coordinator) were very pissed about the way the Big 12 title game ended last year.  They know they won’t face the Longhorns again (likely ever unless in a bowl game) due to the Huskers moving to the Big Ten, and if they beat the Horns Saturday, they won’t be facing them in this year’s Big 12 title game unless OU has an epic meltdown.  So if you take all of that into consideration, Huskers roll big in this one and the Pelinis won’t let up.  I’m guessing Huskers by at least 17.

Mississippi St. @ #22 Florida (-7) – Urban is catching all kinds of heat this week.  Two game losing streak and letting an electric offensive player back on the team after he texted his girlfriend “time to die bitch” just a month ago.  According to CUM, letting him back on was because “he is not a violent person,” not because his offense is sputtering and he needs to add a playmaker to it (Rainey won’t be back until the Georgia game though).  On with the game…I still feel the same about Mississippi State; they are getting way too much hype for a potential six-win team.  What this line is telling me is that on a neutral site (if you take away the four points you get for being the home team), Florida is a field goal better than the Bulldogs.  Even more, you are telling me that if the game was in Stark Vegas, the Bulldogs would be a one point favorite.  This is hilarious!  The gap in talent is HUGE.  On the road so far this year, Miss. St. was destroyed at LSU and beat a Houston team on its 3^rd QB of the year.  Granted, Urban isn’t going to run the score up because his old buddy Dan Mullen is on the other sideline, but you know if this game is close in the 4^th quarter (doubtful), he will punch across another TD or FG to go up two scores late (and cover the seven points).  In summary, you got a desperate Florida team with a bye week next week with a healthier Jeff Demps playing with an overrated, undermanned opponent with inexperienced QBs at night in The Swamp.  Easy money!

And They Muffed It...by Joseph Michael -

Wow, since Ernie covered pretty much everything, there really isn't a whole lot to add this week.  No teams did anything stupid last week and things are rolling along this college football season.  ESPN is pushing Nevada up the polls without them even coming close to covering the spread.  They are at #19 and the only team they've played that I'm sure isn't made up is the California Golden Bears.  So it should set up nicely when they play Boise at the end of the year and Boise wins by 5 touchdowns.  But that's not what I'm here for, and it seems like I said I wasn't a conspiracy theorist like my dad earlier this year?  I'm hear to bitch.  So let's do this, I said "no teams" shot themselves in the foot last week. But someone definitely muffed it.

Let's talk about three subjects that are very near and dear to my heart (imagine the most sarcasm you can in a person's voice or words when I say that....) in no specific order, the Arkansas Media, Michael Dyer, and Gus Malzahn.  Only one of them muffed it, but the other two sure as hell are reaping the benefits.  I'll start with the culprit, the Arkansas Media and I'll work my way down.  Bo Mattingly, Arkansas Democrat Gazette and anyone else giving Gus Malzahn and Michael Dyer a forum to voice themselves and bolster Auburn recruiting in the state of Arkansas, ESPECIALLY during game week, what the hell are you thinking?  They are gone.  Malzahn because of Nutt and Dyer because he's afraid of competition.  More on Dyer later.  But I'm getting ahead of myself.  Bo Mattingly has Malzahn on his show at least twice a month and that just shouldn't happen.  I understand Malzahn is from Arkansas and he may be a great coach, it's not my personal opinion, I've read his book and I can sum up pretty much every chapter by him saying "what you want to do is create a mismatch", or "speed the tempo up on offense and tire out the defense", yeah, I nailed that book summary.  But the man has gotten results everywhere he's been and I can't deny he has a knack for coming into Arkansas and taking some of our top talent to a team that we play every year.  I'm not saying that him being on the show or any other media outlet is the reason we lost Dyer last year, or are going to lose Frazier this year, but it damn sure doesn't hurt them. I have no vendetta against Malzahn and when he gets his head coaching job at Louisiana Tech or wherever he lands, let's have him on the radio and front of the newspaper every damn day for a month.  Malzahn Mania, it'll be like Hulkamania except without all the yellow.  But, while we're playing and trying to outcoach and out recruit him to win a ballgame every year, can we stop treating him like he is Robert Downey Jr. at a strip club???

Finally, I would be remissed if I didn't talk a little bit about what I think of Michael Dyer.  Last year, there were more reports of Dyer getting ready to commit to the Hogs then there were sightings of the Loch Ness Monster.  Which is sad twofold, A) because I love Nessy and B) I really wanted Dyer to come to play for his home state.  I think it's a great thing and would be very gratifying.  I mean, I know I'm on the Razorback faithful about a lot of little things they do, but every fan base has them.  What is unique about Arkansas is we are the only show in town.  Dyer chose to spurn his home state and go elsewhere because "Relationships" were better at Auburn. "Relationships" are more important than football down on the plains then they are on the hill.  Still, you have to remember this is an 18,19,20 year old kid saying these things. I honestly don't know his age.  So I let all this go, he's not the first big time recruit to say no to his home state and he won't be the last.  Hopefully, his career will be better than Cedric Houston, who???  Sorry Ernie, but that one really hurt me.  I've heard stories of Dyer telling Jerico Nelson, DD Jones, Jerry Franklin and a host of others not to worry, the only reason he was taking a trip to Auburn was to recurit for Arkansas, and I'm not even worried about that because I'm pretty sure those boys will handle that during game time.  But, I'll tell you what I can't let go.  Dyer having the Arkansas coaching staff send a Letter Of Intent the night before Signing Day getting the whole state's hopes up when he knew he was still going to Auburn.  Or the fact that he put a video on Youtube with two of his buddies and I guess his girlfriend (congratulations to him on that by the way, I didn't realize Martin Lawerence needed a stunt double on Big Momma's House) chanting "F Arkansas, F Arkansas", and then coming back and telling people from Arkansas about morals and family values in their own newspaper.  Hopefully that's something he'll learn, and soon.  As the great Tommy Tice says "stay humble or stumble", I just hope that when and if you do, the Arkansas Media is all over it and don't muff it again and they treat him like an Auburn Tiger, because that's all he is now, and that was all his choice.

Enjoy the games!

NFL Picks – Week 5

New to the blog this week...NFL picks by Greg Sellers

I’m excited to introduce to you guys my first blog.  It involves gambling on the NFL, it’s going to be great.  The blog will be put weekly on Saturday’s and include every pick on the NFL schedule.  If anyone has any comments or would like to argue a pick, go ahead and do it, I’d love to see what you guys think.

I’ll explain the layout of the picks in a sec but first I’ll tell a little bit about myself.  First, if you are reading this for a great piece of English literature, you are wasting your time.  There will be plenty of errors in grammar, structure, etc.  I’m an engineer, I do numbers, that’s what’ll you’ll get, deal with it.  Second, I am considered the NFL guru in Arkansas.  That’s sad to say but I guess it’s due to the fact that barely any one cares about the NFL in this state, but I’ll take the title, sounds cool anyway.  Third, I’m a huge Bears fan.  Keep that in mind when I’m making my picks for that team.  I will never bet against them in my picks of the week but if I bet for them, I’ll try and give a rational explanation.

Enough of all of that boring nonsense, let’s talk about the format of the blog.  I will every week come up with a minimum of 4 picks that I feel strongly about.  It will either be a spread or over/under pick (if you are reading this, I’m assuming you know what I mean by that).  Second, I will come up with one underdog pick.  This means I will pick a dog to win the game straight up.  So far, through 4 weeks, I’m 4-0 in that category.  I picked KC three weeks in a row and picked Denver last week.  If you don’t believe me, ask the created of thankgoditsaturday blog, Ernie (who by the way does a fantastic job on his blog and gave me the inspiration to do mine).  Last, I’ll do the rest of the games.  Those games I personally will be staying away from (if you know what I mean) but I like the challenge of still getting them right.

This will be the only week I have that long intro.  From week 6 on, I’ll explain my thoughts of the previous week, show you my record, then get straight to that weeks picks.  HERE WE GO!!!

Picks of the Week (I’m going with 5, in no particular order)

1.       Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns (+3) – That’s right, for my first pick I’m taking the Browns, how you like that? Here’s a stat my friend Joe pointed out to me, the Browns have led in the 4^th quarter of ever game and they are very feisty.  Their three losses have been by 3,2 and 7.  Home games were a 2 point loss and a 3 point victory against the Bengals. Falcons are overrated too.

2.       NY Giants @ Houston Texans (-3) – This is my lock of the week.  Giants can’t score at all, they destroyed the Bears and had a sad 3-0 lead going into the half.  Houston will also be getting back their stud linebacker Cushing this week.  Also, Vegas gives home teams three points.  Do you really believe these two teams are even, please, Houston will roll.

3.       New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals – I’ll make this quick, Arizona is terrible, N.O. hasn’t hit their stride yet and are still 4-0 and Vegas has been scared of all the close games this season.  I’ll be surprised if they don’t win by 14 or more.

4.       San Diego Chargers @ Oakland (+6.5) – Division games are always a closer game than people realize.  Oakland has only been blown out in one game this season, week 1.  Oakland is much improved, will have Bush for this game and I just think SD is just not the same.   I even feel this could be an upset, but take the points.

5.       Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys – Overrated, clap, clap, clapclapclap.  That’s my chant for the Boys.  Tennessee is fired up after that loss to the Broncos and this game will controlled by Tennessee up front (that means a close game).

Upset Lock of the Week (I’m calling it a lock until I lose)

St. Louis Rams (+140) @ Detroit Lions – I love the Lions feistiness but there’s just something about the Rams right now (maybe the fact that if they win the division I win a 1000 bucks).  If you read the article I read on ESPN, you’ll feel the same way too.  Bradford has been good, Jackson is the man and the D has done well.

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1.      Denver Broncos (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens – When in doubt, take seven points or more.

2.      Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) – If the Bills are going to win one, here it is.

3.      KC Chiefs (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts – This one’s tough because I really like the Chiefs but when the Colts lose they come back with a fury.  I say Chiefs run a bunch and keep it close but don’t have enough for Manning in the end (plus the Chiefs had two weeks to study).

4.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals – See pick 1.

5.      Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (under 33) – If the over/under was 25, I’d still take the under.  Panthers can only run/Bears have a great Run D. Bears never score….I was going to throw a joke in there but I’ll leave it alone.

6.      Green Bay Fudge (-3)  @ Washington Redskins – AHHHHH, I hate the Packers.  Quit putting your dumb fake title belt on your body Rodgers, you look like an idiot.  Here’s a concept, win an important game instead of being a fantasy stud.

7.      Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) – Vick/McCoy hurt.  San Francisco can’t be this bad can they?  I believe they turn it around here.

8.      Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-4) – I don’t think Moss will matter in this game, not used to the system plus Revis will be on him like a fat kid on cake.  Jets are just on a roll, plus they get Santonio back.

Week Six – It’s Go Time!

As we step further into the best regular season of any sport in the world, we have some challenges for some top teams this weekend.  Also, some of the big time rivalry games get cranked up.

SEC Games – 6-1 straight up last week; 37-6 for the season

#12 LSU @ #14 Florida – Both teams are coming off of losses…oh wait, after further review, just Florida lost last week.  Please excuse me while I vomit about the outcome of the LSU-UT game one last time.  CUM (Coach Urban Meyer of course) tried to get cute with a jump pass against Bama last week.  He had two problems though:  1) he was playing Saban’s defense and 2) Tebow was in Nashville preparing to hold a clipboard all day the next day instead of being the one to throw the jump pass.  Both of these teams have issues – LSU having more because of their luckier than good head coach.  This one is simple – CUM is pissed, Les is dumb, and LSU doesn’t have enough offense although they have the talent to be really good.  I will be rooting for LSU and I still like their defense, but Gators find a way to score some points…Florida 23-13

Tennessee @ Georgia – First time since 1906 these two traditional powers face each other with both having losing records.  I deem this the Hangover Bowl.  Which team will be able to get up for this game after huge disappointments last weekend?  We all know what happened to the Vols.  Even worse (maybe), the Dogs lost at Colorado and the Buff fans stormed the field…after beating a 1-4 team.  Richt is feeling the heat to say the least.  I can see this one going one of two ways:  big Bulldog win playing to support their coach or a narrow Vol win.  I think AJ Green picks the Vols defense apart on 3^rd downs, and the Vols play it close for a while but fail in the end once again.  Georgia 27-16

#11 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M in Dallas - See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below.

#1 Alabama @ #19 South Carolina – Bama ends its brutal three game stretch and South Carolina has had a week off to get way too over-hyped for this game.  I’ll say it again…Bama’s focus being a repeat champ is just amazing to me.  Saban really has them brainwashed.  Hey, whatever works.  I like the Cocks balance on offense this year, but I am not completely confident in their defense.  Spurrier will once again yank Garcia when Garcia makes a mistake just to show the national TV audience that it is not his fault.  South Carolina ‘wants” to win, but they are pretenders in my book until they pull off a win like this.  Bama 28-13

In the “I’d rather go shopping with Samantha” SEC games this week, Vanderbilt over Eastern Michigan, Auburn beats Kentucky (in a close one) and Mississippi St. defeats Houston.

Notable Games Around the Nation - 3-0 straight up last week; 14-1 for the season

#23 Florida State @ #13 Miami – Man this used to be the game of the year.  I barely heard anyone talk about it on the national level this week.  It is slowly becoming a very important game again – at least in the ACC, which has been terrible thus far this year.  I think Miami is the better team before considering the home field advantage.  The Noles defense is questionable at best, especially playing in Miami.  Jacory and the boys have a field day…Miami 33-19

#17 Meeeeechigan St. @ #18 Meeeeechigan – How quickly Rich Rod gets off the hot seat with an easy opening schedule and a freak of an athlete running past all the beefy northern teams.  The schedule is about to get a lot tougher for the Wolverines in the upcoming weeks, but I say they remain undefeated for at least one more week.  Once again, it just comes down to who the home team is in this 'defense optional' game.  Wolverines 42-34  

If I were a bettin' man... – 2-0 against the spread last week; 7-5 for the season

#11 Arkansas (-6) vs. Texas A&M in Dallas – Why does this line keep going down in A&M’s favor?  Did they suddenly get a defense that could stop someone or a QB who does not turn the ball over?  The Hogs have some frustration to unleash.  I see this game being just like last year’s where the Aggies kept it close for about a quarter and then it got out of hand although I am kinda tired of hearing how each week is the game the Hogs running game is gonna breakout.  Truth is, as long as Mallett is behind center and Petrino is on the sideline, there will be no running game of any significance.  Hogs win big in the Big D (or A).   

Southern Cal @ #16 Stanford (-9.5) – This line is not right if you have seen each of these teams play this year.  It’s easy to look past Stanford if you only watched them play at Oregon last week, but Oregon is positioning themselves to play for the national title.  I have yet to see USC show any interest in a game this year.  They are the walking dead.  They have nothing to play for due to the offseason sanctions, and they are playing like it.  Stanford is one of the most physical teams in the nation.  USC is one of the most finesse on both sides of the ball.  USC will once again not be interested even though they should be playing for revenge since the Cardinal smacked them around 55-21 last year.  It’s simple – Stanford is better than last year, USC is worse than last year and it’s in Palo Alto.  I’ll take the Cardinal BIG.

And They Muffed It...by Joseph Michael -

We have a unique situation this week where two teams actually muffed it in the same game, Tennessee @ LSU.  But before we get to the game, let's first take a second and look back at how these two programs have put themselves in these situations.  One program is just having a run of bad luck and the other who has hired a guy that I'm not sure is qualified to take your order at McDonald's.  Keep in mind, Ernie is a friend of mine, so I have come to have a respect for him and the Tennessee Volunteers.  Especially since I heard the story of the beer bottle getting thrown through the TV when Charles Woodson won the Heisman over Peyton Manning in 1997.  Phillip Fulmer was a great man, and as best I can tell, was well liked by Volunteer fans.  Fulmer was born in Tennesssee, played for the Vols, and was even an assistant for the Volunteers for 13 years before replacing one of the all time great coaches in college football Johnny Majors.  It was a decision that was not very popular with the Vol fans, but the results won all the nay sayers over very quickly.  A career 152-52 record and a record of 98-34 in the SEC, an SEC Championship and of course the 1998 Championship.  Ironically, his worst year was his last.  Then this is where I say bad luck came into play, you hired Lane Kiffin.  I wouldn't trust Lane Kiffin with my 78 year old grandmother in a room by themselves after he'd had a couple of beers.  He embarrassed a program and did it with no class.  Paid no mind to how Johnny Majors and Phillip Fulmer and all the great players along the way had built such a fantastic program.  After a year of what I imagine Ernie answered more questions about his team's head coach, he left and went back to USC where he will fit in nicely.  In my opinion, now you've got the right guy.  He has the pedigree (his father was the great coach of the Georgia Bulldogs Vince Dooley) and has a pretty impressive resume.  And if you go by stars in recruiting, which I do, he is holding his own with the big boys and pulling in some nice players....

Now let's look at the other side of this coin.  How this guy has won on any level is baffling to me.  I would read you some quotes but instead I'll just link the website and enjoy yourselves. http://www.thequotablelesmiles.com/les302.php ....  And I feel terrible because I feel LSU fans pain too because I had to endure 10 years of Houston Nutt who may as well have been holding pom poms on the sideline.  Les Miles' time management skills are worse than Yogi Bear's, and the only reason Yogi Bear ever got anything done is because of BooBoo pestered him to death until he got it done.  I'm sure everyone remembers the LSU/Ole Miss game last year Jordan Jefferson from LSU got sacked and it took them 10 seconds to call time out.  Then they completed a 7 yard pass to Stevan Ridley and it took them another 10 -12 seconds to call time out.  Then Jefferson completed a pass down to the Rebel 5 and all they had to do was get down and spike it.  Bring on the kicker and kick the game winning field goal. Instead total chaos - they didnt have that extra 20 seconds, didn't spike the ball and HD Rebel sucked out a 25-23 victory over the Tigers.

So we move in to 2010 - Tennessee @ LSU where the Vols were 17 point underdogs and after the first play of the game it looked like the route was on in Death Valley.  But Tennessee played good defense the rest of the quarter and had a few drives and late in the quarter Tauren Poole dove in to tie the game at 7.  Not much happened on the offensive side of the ball in the 2nd quarter except apparently Gary Crowton and Les Miles got amnesia and forgot that Jarrett Lee had thrown more interceptions returned for touchdowns then anyone in my lifetime.  So he got a lot of work and played fairly well, but did fail to throw a touchdown to Tennessee.  And while I see the thought process because Jordan Jefferson has been struggling, you're substituting the blind for the blind.  So we go into halftime tied at 7.  Not as boring of a game as it sounds because it was very physical and your typical SEC football game.  3rd Quarter goes along about like the 2nd with both teams missing opportunities for big plays, and we go into the 4th all tied up with LSU driving.  What I have failed to mention because I got so caught up in LSU deciding to go with 2 Quarterbacks is that Stevan Ridley was a Beast.  Why he didn't get 35 or 40 carries is beyond me because you would've thought after the 15 swing passes LSU had thrown with about 2 being successful that they would just pound it.  Back to the game, Josh Jasper kicks a field goal to pretty much start the quarter to give the Tigers a 10-7 lead.  The Matt Simms and Tauren Poole Vols led their team back down the field and with 11 minutes to play Simms took it into the endzone from 3 yards out, extra point good and it's 14-10 Rocky Top.  The rest of the game was a battle and mostly a field position fest until LSU got the ball back with little time remaining.  They took their final timeout on 4th and 14 with Jarrett Lee on the field.  He then threw a strike into triple coverage that somehow found its way into Terrence Tolliver's mitts for a 20 yard gain and a first down.  After an 8 yard pass, Dooley took a timeout to settle the defense down.  On the next play Stevan Ridley ran for 2 yards to the 8 giving the Tigers a 1st and Goal.  Then after a pass interference call in the end zone placed the ball at the 2, on 1st and Goal Jarrett Lee threw a pass that apparently Les Miles didn't like seeing.  So with 30 seconds on the clock he brought in Jordan Jefferson with zero timeouts. They ran a quarterback sweep out of the Wild Whatever the hell you want to call it, and he was stoned at the 1 and a half.  The next 20 seconds were crazier than Lady GaGa's Halloween Costume.  I mean there were more people running on and off that field, it looked like McDonald's at 7:30 in the morning on the first day of school.  What happened next I'm still trying to wrap my head around.  LSU snaps it with about 2 seconds left past Jordan Jefferson and he goes and dives on it around the 17 with zeros on the clock.  Game Over.  The sky is falling in Baton Rouge, but wait, there is a flag on the play.  Apparently during all of the chaos Tennessee had too many men on the field, and LSU was awarded a penalty inside of the one.  They finally give it back to Ridley who bulls his way in for the score and the win.  Knowing Les Miles the way I do, I am surprised that he didn't say that was all part of the plan and they had it under control, but the bottom line is Les Miles is starting to reach Houston Nutt status and that's a place no coach wants to be.  LSU should be a top 5 team year in and year out; I just don't see it with Miles as the coach.  For Volunteer fans, it hurts.  I feel your pain; it's been 12 years since the "Stoernover" in Knoxville and I still think about what might have been.  But there is good news.  I think you got the right guy for the job and someone who is going to run the program with class and make all the former greats proud.

Enjoy the games!