Week Twelve – Calm Before the Storm

Overall, we have a light schedule this weekend.  While a few rivalry games will be going on this weekend, many teams have scheduled cupcakes to get an easy win before they prepare for the last full week of the regular season.  My attention will be on three big games in the Big Ten this week as they try to figure out who will meet in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.  Last week was a struggle for the blog going 3-5 in national games (51-28 on the season), 0-1 against the spread in the “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion – now 13-8 on the season, and 5-2 in SEC games (63-12 on the season).  Time to get back on track.  On to the games…

Friday:  7:00: #2 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (ESPN) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

Saturday:

11:00 AM:  #16 Nebraska @ #18 Michigan (ESPN) – The Huskers survived all of the moments of silence and the whole circus in Happy Valley last week.  Now they have to go to the Big House to keep their hopes of a Legends Division title alive.  Michigan State still has to lose a game for the Huskers to have a chance, which is probably unlikely with only Indiana and Northwestern left on the schedule although the Huskers did lose to Northwestern.  I have to Michigan at home.  Wolverines 24-21. 

#17 Wisconsin @ Illinois (ESPN2) – Wisconsin’s hopes of a Leaders Division title are still alive.  All they have to do is win here and next week for all the marbles against Penn State at home.  Illinois has been fading fast as they have now lost 4 straight.  I still believe Wisconsin should probably be ranked in the top 7 or 8 in the nation.  They are that good and have lost two heartbreakers in the last minute of the game.  Badgers big 35-17.

11:21 AM: Kentucky @ #14 Georgia (ABC – SEC Network) – Georgia continues their brutal schedule, and their collision course to get destroyed by an SEC West team in the SEC Championship Game.  Don’t buy it that they are “turning the corner” or anything.  A lot of teams can turn the corner with that schedule.  Bulldogs 31-6.

1:00 DI-AA #6 Montana @ DI-AA #1 Montana State (Live Video here: http://www.b2livetv.com/upcoming_events.asp?q=s&value=18 ) – I know you are thinking what the hell? They call it the Brawl of the Wild (really cool rivalry game name).   I was working out there a few years ago the week before this game was played.  The alums of both teams were really into the rivalry, and it was cool to see that on a smaller scale outside of SEC country for these DI-AA teams.  Montana State is 9-1 and 7-0 in conference and ranked #1 in DI-AA.  Montana is 8-2 and 6-1 in conference and #6 in DI-AA.  This one is gonna be intense.  Oh by the way, the weather forecast for the game…a balmy 20 degrees with snow showers.  Click on the link above just to watch for a minute or two.  It will be worth it.

2:30:  Mississippi State @ #6 Arkansas (CBS) – The Hogs continue to try to get ready for next week’s big one.  They have improved some and are getting a running game going.  Mississippi State has had a disappointing season still needing one more victory to go bowling.  Don’t fret though Cowbells – Houston Nutt is on the schedule next week.  Hogs 31-14.

#21 Penn State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN) – Off the field, this Penn State scandal is getting worse each day.  On the field, the Nittany Lions fell too far behind last week to Nebraska.  You have to wonder how much gas Penn State has left in the tank.  Meanwhile, Ohio State has been all over the radar this year – beating Wisconsin but then losing in OT to Purdue last week, which was the Buckeyes chance to get back in the division race.  Now they are out of it, but they can still ruin the division for Penn State.  The Buckeyes are 5-1 at home this year with the lone loss being by only 3 points to Michigan State.  I have to go Buckeyes 21-17 in this one.  Definitely low scoring.

6:00: #1 LSU @ Mississippi (ESPN) – Houston Nutt’s last home game, and nobody cares except the 25,000 LSU fans that are gonna take over Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday night.  Tigers keep rolling 31-6.

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPNU) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

7:00: USC @ #4 Oregon (ABC regional/espn3.com) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

#13 Kansas State @ #23 Texas (FX) – Kansas State is underdogs every week but still have only lost two games to the #2 and #5 teams in the nation.  Bill Snyder should be national coach of the year…just go ahead and give it to him already.  Texas has been up and down all year.  I do have to favor them at home though in this one although it will be close.  Longhorns 24-21.

#5 Oklahoma @ #22 Baylor (ABC regional/espn3.com) – How in the world is Baylor still ranked?  They beat Kansas in OT last week for crying out loud.  Kansas may be the worst team in Division I.  Regardless, get ready for some points in this one.  Oklahoma knows what they have to do from here on out…impress the voters in every game and win Bedlam the last week to hope they can get back in the title game.  Boomer Sooner 52-35.

8:30: Arizona @ Arizona State (Fox Sports Net Affiliates) – Very underrated rivalry game.  Arizona State needs to win out and get some help from USC (likely winner over UCLA next week) to win the crappy south division.  Sun Devils 35-21.

9:15: California @ #9 Stanford (ESPN) – The band is not on the field…it is just the Cardinal running circles around the Cal Bears.  Stanford 35-17.

In other SEC games, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Alabama win non-conference games.

Sunday: 9:00 AM: Division I-AA (yes I still call it that) Playoff Bracket Announcement (ESPNU) – Yes, they do have playoffs at other levels.  Imagine with me for a moment how exciting a Selection Sunday type show would be for a Division I-A playoff.  It would be incredible!

If I Were a Bettin’ Man… - I’m goin three games this week, and I’m feelin’ lucky.  

Oklahoma State (-27) @ Iowa State – Friday night special here.  The Cowboys have averaged 55 points per game their last 6 games (all Big 12 games).  The Cyclones have been up and down this year, but they are not ready for this Cowboys offense.  Their defense is giving up 30 points per game, while their offense is only averaging 24 a game.  They won’t be able to keep up just as no one has with Okie State lately.  Cowboys 55-20.

USC @ Oregon (Over 67.5) – You know how fast Oregon runs plays and USC passes the ball about 55 percent of the time and more than that when they are behind, which will be the case here.  The over is 14-3 in Oregon home games the past three years.  Not too shabby.  Quack Quack 46-33.

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (+1.5) – I never put my Vols in this section.  I feel like I jinx them when I do, but hey I can’t jinx them any more than they have been jinxed this whole season.  Let’s wrap our brains around this line for a minute.  The Vols are 27-1 against Vanderbilt in the last 28 meetings and Vandy is favored in Neyland Stadium.  Vanderbilt has dominated the likes of Kentucky, Ole Miss and Elon this year.  The Vols have played the toughest schedule in the nation and been dominated by 5 of the top 14 teams in the nation.  Tyler Bray missed 4 of those games.  Bray makes the Vols 10-20 points better than they are without him.  The Vols and Derek Dooley desperately need this game to keep their bowl hopes (and those all-important extra bowl practices) alive.  James Franklin has energized the Vandy fanbase although the visiting teams still have way more people than Vandy at their home games.  Franklin has also made some snide remarks about Dooley and the Vols throughout the year.  He’s new to the SEC, but he’ll be reminded of Vandy’s place in the pecking order on Saturday.  Vols 28-20.          

Enjoy your weekend!

-Ernie

Week Eleven – Underdog Week

The band Spoon said it best in their song “The Underdog” – “…you got no fear of the underdog, that's why you will not survive.”  I have a feeling this weekend may be one of those weekends where upsets (or near upsets) show up everywhere.  Eleven of the top 25 teams are on the road headlined by a huge one Saturday night – Oregon at Stanford – although it has not gotten the love that last week’s big one got.  There are more mid-tier game matchups this week than in any other week so far this year, which will make for a fun day of football.  Last week, the blog was 0-1 against the spread in the “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion – now 13-7 on the season.  The national games were 7-2 (48-23 on the season) and the SEC games were a 6-1 last week and now 58-10 on the season.  Let’s go to the games….

Friday:  7:00: South Florida @ Syracuse (ESPN2) – Ah, it’s okay I guess.  Check out some high school football playoffs instead.

Saturday: 

11:00 AM:  This is the best time slot of the day this week.  I challenge you to try to keep up with all of these.  You may need about five TVs/computers though.

Florida @ #13 South Carolina (CBS) – This game usually gets me excited but not this year.  Florida’s offense is a disaster, and South Carolina’s isn’t too far behind since Lattimore was injured.  Gamecocks win 19-17 in a pillow fight.

#17 Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2) – The Hawkeyes had a big win over Michigan last week.  They could really screw up the Legends division with a win this week.  A win by Iowa would put four teams at the top with two losses each (at least for the moment).  I think Sparty is on the downhill slide as the  season has progressed while Iowa is picking it up finally.  Hawkeyes 24-21.

#19 Nebraska @ #12 Penn State (ESPN) – My goodness, what a week at Penn State.  No sense in rehashing what happened off the field this week.  ESPN has talked about it for 23 hours a day everyday this week.  The question now is will Penn State show up mentally.  They will either show up and dominate or mail it in and the Huskers will roll.  You can flip a coin on this one, but I will go with the team that doesn’t have Taylor Martinez.  Nittany Lions 17-13.

#2 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ABC – KARZ in LR) – Is this the week the Pokes finally go down?  It seems like the whole nation is just waiting for the week the now #2 team loses.  Remember Tech did it to the Sooners a couple of weeks ago and this one is in Lubbock.  I’ll still side with the high-powered offense of the Cowboys, but keep in mind their defense is starting to fail them (gave up 45 to Kansas State last week).  Okie State 44-38.

#16 Texas @ Missouri (FX) – I think Mizzou is seriously overvalued this year, and Texas is too for that matter.  Texas continues to beat the teams they are supposed to and lose to the ones they aren’t.  Longhorns 24-23.

West Virginia @ #23 Cincinnati (ABC/espn3.com) – Maybe West Virginia will finally remain out of the top 25 for the rest of the season after a terrible home loss to Louisville last week.  Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat for the Big East title and BCS bid.  A win here and Cincy will likely only have to go 1-2 the rest of the season to clinch.  Cincinnati wins 35-28.

11:21 AM: Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (ABC – SEC Network) – I have a funny feeling about this one even though I will not watch a second of it.  Kentucky 21-20 in an upset.

2:30:  #20 Auburn @ #15 Georgia (CBS) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

Miami @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN) – Remember when this game was HUGE?  Not any more although the hate between these teams hasn’t gone away.  The underdog has won this game six straight years.  Noles 31-21.

TCU @ #5 Boise State (Versus) – This may be Boise’s last chance to lose.  It’s at home on the blue turf.  These two teams had a couple of great battles in bowl games after the ’08 and ’09 seasons  splitting the two games. 

Texas A&M @ #14 Kansas State (ABC) – Kansas State is a home underdog again against another team that is fading fast.  The Aggies lost RB Christine Michael for the season last week.  Kansas State’s schedule has picked up big time over the last two weeks, but I was impressed with them hanging around and almost winning in Stillwater last week.  Snyder’s teams are so well coached.  I like them in this spot.  Wildcats 34-31.

5:00: Tennessee @ #8 Arkansas (ESPN2) – The Hogs played a complete game last week dominating the Gamecocks.  Tennessee picked up their first win over a month last week.  The five Vols’ losses have come to teams all ranked in the top 14 in the nation in total defense.  They have also played the toughest schedule in the nation to date.  It doesn’t get any easier this week.  The Vols come in with a Freshman QB because of a QB injury just like they did the last time they played in Fayetteville five years ago.  I’m still not a fan of the Hogs’ defense, but I expect Tyler Wilson and the receivers to shred the Vols in the pass game.  The Vols only hope is the Hogs are already overlooking everyone for the LSU game.  Hogs 31-13.

6:45: #3 Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN) – How will Bama react after the very disappointing loss from last week?  They should be motivated since they only fell to #3 in the BCS.  Mississippi State has quietly been improving although I think they still are overrated.  The Bullies won’t have enough cowbell.  Roll Tide 35-13.

7:00: #7 Oregon @ #4 Stanford (ABC) – This game will have the #7 and #8 offenses going at one another.  It should be a helluva game with lots of fireworks so be sure to watch it.  I have had Stanford penciled into the national title game all year long, and I can’t stop now.  I am a firm believer in a team who finishes runner-up to the national title the year before (like Oregon this year) slipping the next year.  Oregon has only lost to LSU to this point but have still had their ups and downs, including key injuries.  Stanford has been on a roll from the beginning.  They are also at home and have to have revenge on their mind after the 52-31 loss last year to the Ducks – their only loss of the year.  Give me the Cardinal in this one 38-34.

In other SEC games, LSU and Ole Miss win non-conference games.

If I Were a Bettin’ Man… -   

Auburn (+13) @ Georgia – Let’s revisit Georgia’s schedule again real quick.  They were dominated by Boise State, lost to the only other ranked team they played (South Carolina), and have beaten only two teams with a winning records (Florida and Mississippi State).  They will win the SEC East by default if they pull this one out more than likely.  Auburn is a team that is improving every week.  Sure they were blasted by LSU but who hasn’t been.  All I know is that they beat Florida by 11 (Georgia beat Florida by 4), Auburn beat South Carolina by 3 (Georgia lost to the Cocks by 3), and Auburn beat Ole Miss by 18 (Georgia beat then by 14).  I’ll give Georgia one – they beat Miss. St. by 14 and Auburn only beat them by 7.  I know it’s hard to compare scores, but when the results of comparing scores are this obvious, and you are giving me 13 points, I will take it all day…if I were a bettin’ man.  Did I mention the vastly improved Auburn team had a week off to prepare?  Georgia barely 28-27.

Enjoy your weekend!

-Ernie

Week Ten – Get Ready for the Showdown

So, do you know of any big games this week?  THE game has only been talked about for months now.  In the SEC alone, we have the Game of the Decade and the worst conference game of the year all in the same week plus another matchup of two highly questionable top 10 teams.  There are some other good games throughout the nation too, but they will all continue to be overshadowed by the big one until 7 PM on Saturday night.  The blog’s picks came back strong last week going 2-0 against the spread in the “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion – now 13-6 on the season.  The national games were 7-2 (41-21 on the season) and the SEC games were a blistering 5-0 last week and now 52-9 on the season.  Let’s see what we have on the TV this weekend.

Friday:  8:00: USC @ Colorado (ESPN) – God bless Lane.  He said he was lied to by the PAC 12 officials at the end of the OT loss to Stanford last week.  Karma!  USC gives a very uninspired effort, but Colorado is beyond bad.  Trojans 21-10.

Saturday: 

11:00 AM: #15 Michigan @ Iowa (ESPN) – What has happened to Iowa?  I liked them at the beginning of the year and all they have done is let me down.  They lost to Minnesota last week; even North Dakota State won at Minnesota.   Michigan continues to roll and will be 8-1 after Saturday…amazing!  Wolverines 35-27.

Texas Tech @ #21 Texas (FX) – Tech blasts Oklahoma on the road one week and then gets blasted by the mighty Iowa State Cyclones the next week.  What gives?  Texas continues to dominate the weaklings in the Big 12 but can’t play with the big boys.  I see Tech in this game for a while, but the Longhorns win in the end.  Longhorns 28-24.

11:21 AM: Vanderbilt @ Florida (SEC Network – ABC) – The battle of the loudmouth, obnoxious coaches here.  Vandy had a heartbreaker last week.  Florida had a heartbreaking October going 0 for October for the first time in more than 30 years.  Muschamp is already getting on the wrong side of the fair weather Gator fans.  Word is the Gator fans are anxiously awaiting Sunday to see if they need to buy LSU or Alabama gear and wear it for the rest of the season.  The Gators offense is really bad, but surely somehow, someway they pull this one off.  Gators 17-13.

2:30:  Texas A&M @ #6 Oklahoma (ABC or ESPN2) – The Aggies lost another close one last week, and the Sooners took out their frustration on poor K-State.  I think the Sooners continue to roll here because they know they have to impress the pollsters from this point on.  The Aggies have to be feeling the grind of some disappointing close losses this year and now have very little to play for.  Boomer Sooner 45-28.

Mississippi @ Kentucky (ESPNU) – BARF!  Houston Dale pulls out the worst conference game of the year.  Rebel Black Bears 5-4.

#4 Stanford @ Oregon State (ABC) – The Cardinal train keeps on rolling against a struggling Beaver team.  Stanford 45-13.

6:00: Missouri @ Baylor (Fox Sports Net Affiliates) – Points, points and more points!  Da Bears 45-42.

6:15: #9 South Carolina @ #7 Arkansas (ESPN) – How are these teams ranked in the Top 10 again?  I guess the pollsters do not have many choices.  South Carolina has beaten one team that is currently in the Top 25, and the Hogs have beaten a whopping zero.  The Hogs defense gets worse every week.  The same goes for South Carolina’s offense too though.  Spurrier may have found something last week though in the second half versus the Vols.  He started to run Connor Shaw regularly.  The Hogs struggle with running QBs.  I have to think the Gamecocks will try to get Alshon more involved in the offense too after catching 3 balls for 17 yards last week.  I think the Hogs are tired of hearing how they are underperforming and kind of like last year, save their best performance of the year for Spurrier.  Hogs 38-31. 

6:30: #19 Arizona State @ UCLA (Versus) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

7:00: Do not turn the channel off of CBS for the next 3 ½ hours.  This is the only game that matters.

#1 LSU @ #2 Alabama (CBS) – The time has come.  It is finally here.  Defense is the name of this game.  Alabama has the #1 unit in total defense, and LSU has the #4.  Breaking down the units, I have to give the quarterback, wide receiver, defensive line, defensive backfield and special teams edge to the Tigers.  Bama gets the edge on the offensive line, running back, linebackers, and possibly most importantly – the home field.  I have watched most of the Tigers and Tide games this year, and it is very difficult to determine who is better.  The way I see this one playing out is Alabama will try to ride Trent Richardson (of course), but the weakest link in the whole game is the still unproven AJ McCarron.  LSU’s incredible defensive backfield is going to bait him into some bad throws when he has to throw, and he is going to have to throw because the very deep LSU defensive line will be geared up to contain Trent Richardson (not completely stop him though).  LSU’s offense does not get the credit it deserves a lot of times, but outside of Richardson for Alabama (which is no doubt a HUGE difference maker), they have the best playmakers on offense with the likes of Randle, Shepard, Beckham, Ware, and Ford.

There were a couple of interesting stats and trends that I came across this week.  I wondered how big of a home field advantage Alabama has had since Saban has been there (since ’08 actually – I didn’t count his first season).  In 15 SEC home games, Bama is 14-1 at home with an average margin of victory of 18 points.  They are 12-2 on the road with an average margin of victory of 17 points.  So that tells me that Alabama has been great regardless of where they have played under Saban, and the home field that is usually such a big deal in this game may not be that big of an edge for Alabama in this case.  Also, in the last 40 years in the regular season #1 vs. #2 matchups, the home team is only 6-6.  Les Miles is 11-1 on the road in night games at LSU.  Enough breaking the game down – I’m ready to watch this thing.  I have never picked against Alabama in the 1 ½ years of this blog, which spans 21 games and 3 losses by the Crimson Tide.  This is a first…Geaux Tigers 24-17.

#14 Kansas State @ #3 Oklahoma State (ABC or ESPN2) – Kansas State was brought back down to earth last week getting thumped at home by the Sooners.  Expect more of the same as Okie State’s offense is a well-oiled machine and is on fire.  Cowboys 51-28.      

9:30: #8 Oregon @ Washington (Fox Sports Affiliates) – Get ready for the points to come down in Seattle.  Oregon better pay attention to the task at hand though and not be looking ahead to their clash with Stanford next week.  Oregon also has a minor QB controversy going now.  It will be a wild one, but the Ducks pull it out.  Quack Quack 48-37.

11:00: Utah State @ Hawaii (espn3.com) – God bless the Hawaii game again.  The bonus to this one is at the time this game is finishing up, we fall back an hour and you get an extra hour of football highlights watching tonight.

In other SEC games, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Georgia pick up win against non-conference cupcakes.

If I Were a Bettin’ Man… - I’m going one PAC 12 game this week.  That’s all I got.  It’s getting really hard to find games that Vegas has off as the season’s sample size grows.   

Arizona State (-8.5) @ UCLA – Arizona State has been thumping every team in the PAC 12 not named Oregon.  They’ve been scoring at will averaging 38 points per game in PAC 12 play.  UCLA has been all over the map.  Getting thumped by lowly Arizona two weeks ago and then doing the thumping on Cal last week at home.  If UCLA wins this game, they catapult to the top of the South division somehow, but they aren’t for real.  They have been outscored on the year by over 50 points total.  The Bruins have the #89 total defense in the nation; on the other hand, you know how much I love Arizona State’s defense.  Give me the Sun Devils 38-24.

Enjoy your weekend!

-Ernie

Week Nine

We’re still a week away from the showdown of all showdowns, and LSU/Alabama is all I have heard anyone talk about all week.  Last week was a struggle on the prognosticating.  The “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion of the blog had its first losing weekend of the year going 1-2 against the spread for an 11-6 record for the season.  The national games were a struggle also going 3-5 on straight up winners (34-19 for the season).  But the blog continued to dominate SEC games going 3-0 (47-9 for the season).  The job I actually make money at has been high maintenance this week so sorry for the delay.  On to the games.

Friday:  7:00: BYU vs. TCU at Jerry’s World (ESPN) – Decent Friday night game here.  Both teams have been real inconsistent this year.  I say this one will be closer than the experts think as Corso would say.  Horned Frogs 28-27.

Saturday: 

11:00 AM: #9 Michigan State @ #13 Nebraska (ESPN) – Sparty has had a difficult October schedule although they remain undefeated for the month beating Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin - the latter being on one of the craziest endings last week that I have ever seen.  Nebraska has been flying under the radar since they were dominated by Wisconsin.  I think Sparty finally has a letdown here in a game that will allow the winner to have the inside track to the division title.  On a related note, does anyone else think it looks like Taylor Martinez is throwing a medicine ball when he drops back to pass?  Nebraska finds some way to win this one.  Huskers 21-20.  

Missouri @ #16 Texas A&M (FX) – Thanks Mizzou for proving me right last week – you are one of the most overrated teams in the nation even though the pollsters are finally starting to figure them out.  Texas A&M should roll here as the points pile up on both sides.  Gig ‘Em 45-30.

11:21 AM: #8 Arkansas @ Vanderbilt (SEC Network – ABC) – The Hogs played a half of football once again last week.  That will catch up to them eventually.  Last week, Vanderbilt did something only 4 other teams have done this year - beat Army.  The Hogs should handle Vandy fairly easy.  However, Vandy is leading the nation in interceptions and beat Ole Miss by 23…just sayin.  Hogs prevail 31-23.   

2:30:  Break out the extras for this time slot.

Baylor @ #3 Oklahoma State (ABC or ESPN2) – I can’t remember an over/under set at 80 before this game.  Problem for Vegas is that they can’t set it high enough because the over will probably hit regardless.  The Pokes have been playing lights out.  Baylor has been teetering, and it continues here.  Okie State 55-31.

Florida vs. #22 Georgia in Jacksonville (CBS) – QB John Brantley will probably be back for Florida this week.  Problem is that Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin are NOT.  The Gators offense is so bad that it has caused Charlie Weis to eat more to handle his stress.  Georgia continues its quest to be the worst 10 win SEC team in history – thanks in large part to the very weak schedule.  Hairy Dawgs 24-14.

#11 Oklahoma @ #10 Kansas State (ESPN) – Oklahoma choked a little earlier in the season this year than normal losing at home to an unranked Texas Tech team last week.  Kansas State continues to amaze although their schedule amps up considerably this week and into the rest of the season.  I can’t believe Oklahoma is a 2 TD favorite here.  I think they’ll pull it out though.  Oklahoma 31-28.

6:00: Mississippi State @ Kentucky (Fox Sports South/espn3.com) – Friends don’t let friends watch this game!  Cowbells 24-13.

Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPNU) – Or this one.  Auburn 24-13.

6:15: #14 South Carolina @ Tennessee (ESPN2) – No Marcus Lattimore for the Gamecocks; no Tyler Bray or Justin Hunter for the Vols.  This would have been a good game at some point in the season, but I’m not expecting much from it now.  Dooley benched Matt Simms finally.  Starting for the Vols this week is true freshman and last year’s high school Gatorade Player of the Year Justin Worley who just so happens to be from South Carolina.  I expect the Gamecocks opportunistic defense to make a couple of plays on the inexperienced QB to win an ugly game.  South Carolina 18-13.

7:00: #6 Clemson @ Georgia Tech (ABC Regional) – Okay Dabo, I’m serious this time…it’s time to choke.  Georgia Tech has been fading fast, but they show up on Saturday night in front of the home crowd.  Ramblin’ Wreck from Georgia Tech 35-33.

#4 Stanford @ #20 USC (ABC Regional) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

#12 Wisconsin @ Ohio State (ESPN) – This would be a game worth watching in another time slot.  Wisky gets back on track and Buckeyes continue to suck.  Badgers 28-14.

9:30: Arizona @ Washington (Fox Sports Affiliates) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

If I Were a Bettin’ Man…    

Stanford (-7.5) @ USC – Hate on Stanford all you want - they have hit their stride.  As I first predicted here in the summer preview, I think they still go undefeated and play LSU in the national title game.  They didn’t even need Andrew Luck last week as they ran for 440 yards averaging over 10 yards per carry against an above average Washington team!  USC beat Notre Dame last week, but Vegas is getting carried away here.  USC’s defense is as questionable as Lane Kiffin’s coaching record.  It’s in LA, but no one there cares about USC anymore.  Luck and the Cardinal overwhelms the Trojans here although the Trojans score with them and hang around for a while.  Cardinal 41- 28.

Arizona @ Washington (-6) – Let’s rewind a week.  Arizona just fired their coach after losing its fifth straight game and giving up around 45 points a game during that span.  Also, Washington was rolling along at 5-1 with better-than-Jake-Locker Keith Price and RB Chris Polk.  They were also ranked in the top 25.  Well, along came last week.  The Wildcats dominated UCLA at home (do I need to remind you how bad UCLA is).  Washington is destroyed by Stanford 65-21 on the road.  Oh, and remember seeing the Arizona/UCLA brawl – all of Arizona’s starting secondary is suspended for at least a half this week.  So back to this week.  Washington is at home.  Arizona was riding an emotional high last week with the coach firing and the interim coach taking over.  Well, that high is over and the first Washington score will demoralize Arizona.  Six points in this one is waaaay off!  Washington 38-17. 

Enjoy your weekend!

-Ernie

Week Eight

Another weekend that lacks a lot of great matchups, but the top teams are starting to feel the pressure so you never know which weekend will bring some upsets.  It could be this one.  The “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion of the blog went 1-1 last week against the spread for the third week in a row for a 10-4 record for the season.  The blog heated up last week going 7-1 on straight up winners in national games (31-14 for the season) and 5-0 in SEC games (44-9 for the season).  Now let’s go to the games…

Thursday:  8:00: UCLA @ Arizona (ESPN) – A team whose coach was just fired versus a team whose coach should be fired.  Give me the team who still has their coach in a mild upset, but don’t waste your time watching this one.  Bruins 24-21.

Friday:  7:00: #11 West Virginia @ Syracuse (ESPN) – I dreamt last night that West Virginia was ranked number 11 in the nation.  What, it wasn’t a dream?  You have to be freaking kidding me!  They might as well rank every team that LSU beats by 26 or more in the top 15.  As you probably know, I think the Mountaineers have been a joke for a couple of years now.  They need to be careful in this one.  While the Orange probably haven’t lived up to their expectations this year, it can all change on Friday night.  Give me the Mountaineers as they continue to “dominate” the unranked Big East.  West “By God” Virginia 28-20.

Saturday: 

11:00 AM: #12 Kansas State @ Kansas (Fox Sports Affiliates) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

#6 Oklahoma State @ Missouri (FX) – Missouri is 3-0 at home playing a very easy schedule, and they are 0-3 on the road losing to 3 ranked teams.  I think Mizzou is overrated this year.  Oklahoma State has done everything that has been asked of them this year – beating ranked teams on the road and blowing a few teams out along the way.  The Cowboys are a battle tested team.  Mizzou is not the same team as last year.  Give me the Pokes 38-27.

North Carolina @ #8 Clemson (ESPN) – If Dabo keeps it up, there is no way in hell he is going to lose 5 games this year. 

11:21 AM: #10 Arkansas @ Mississippi (SEC Network – ABC) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below. 

2:30:  Wow the 2:30 games suck this week.  Go buy some Halloween costumes and  candy or something. 

#19 Auburn @ #1 LSU (CBS) – As I said last week, I don’t think Auburn is as bad as a lot of people say or want them to be.  They shut down Frontbutt Weis and the Gators offense just like Bama and LSU did.  I keep waiting for LSU’s “off game” where they have several mistakes and have a close win.  Well, this is their last chance before the Bama showdown.  I think LSU screws around for a while in this one but pulls away.  LSU 23-10. 

#13 Nebraska @ Minnesota (ABC or ESPN2) – The Huskers brutal Big Ten schedule takes them to scary TCF Bank Stadium this weekend where the Golden Gophers are 6-11 in 2 plus years.  North Dakota State was the last team to beat Minnesota here by 13 points four weeks ago.  #sarcasm

3:00: Central Arkansas @ Lamar (espn3.com) – Yeah, it’s really that bad.  Okay maybe not that bad.

6:00: Penn State @ Northwestern (Big Ten Network) – Penn State has been flying under the radar with an incredible defense.  They also played Alabama closer than anyone else up to this point.  While their offense is like watching paint dry, their defense simply does not give up big plays or points.  Northwestern can put up some points but has really been struggling lately.  Penn State’s two road games to this point in the season have been narrow victories at Temple and Indiana – not necessarily murderer’s row.  Northwestern is better than both of them.  I’ll take the Wildcats in the minor upset.  Northwestern 17-16.

6:15: Tennessee @ #2 Alabama (ESPN2) – Ah, the Third Saturday in October although it is once again played on the 4^th Saturday this year.  The rivalry spans 92 games dating back to 1901 between the two all-time winningest teams in the SEC.  This has been a series of streaks and oh boy are the Tide on the good side of the streak recently winning 4 in a row.  Due to the Vols recent nosedive in the ranks of the SEC, this game has now resorted to a game that the Tide could actually be overlooking in preparation for the big one that everyone is talking about on November 5^th versus LSU.  Easy to see that the Vols are outmanned in this one.  They should go in to this one with the goal of keeping the score closer than any other SEC team has against the Tide this year, which is 24 points.  After last week, I’ve noticed the Vols seem to run the ball better with Simms at QB instead of Bray, so if they can do that to some degree, it will slow the game down.  Richardson, Lacy and company will punish the Vols thin defense though.  Rammer Jammer 38-10.

6:30: USC @ Notre Dame (NBC) – Here is where USC starts playing some decent teams and starts getting lit up.  The master Monte Kiffin’s defense has given up over 40 points to both potent offenses they have faced this year so far.  The Irish have hit their stride with Brian Kelly.  A night game in South Bend will be a great setting for this one.  Irish 41-31.

7:00: #22 Washington @ #7 Stanford (ABC) – Andrew Luck in primetime.  Do yourself a favor and watch this guy play even if it means moving a 2^nd or 3^rd TV into the living room.  Sorry Washington, I’m not buying the whole being ranked thing.  You have beaten 3 of the worst teams in the PAC 12.  Luck and the Cardinal roll in this one.  Stanford 38-20.

#4 Wisconsin @ #15 Michigan State (ESPN) –  See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

9:30: Oregon State @ Washington State (Fox Sports Affiliates) – Late night.

11:00: New Mexico State @ Hawaii (espn3.com) – Late, late night.  God bless the Hawaii home game.

If I Were a Bettin’ Man… - Three games jumped out at me this week, and I’m tired of going 1-1 the last three weeks so I’m gonna try to make something happen this week.   

Kansas State (-11) @ Kansas – This one is pretty simple.  You know Kansas State is ranked and has even been tested with a couple of tough road games.  You know Kansas is terrible giving up 42, 66, 45, 70 and 47 over the last 5 games.  Kansas State beat Kansas last year 59-7 in this rivalry game.  Like last year, the Wildcats will smack the Jayhawks in the mouth, and the Jayhawks will give up and start talking about basketball.  The Wildcats have put up 36 on Baylor and 41 on Texas Tech this year; scoring will not be a problem.  Bill Snyder coached teams don’t allow a slip-up here.  This spread is off at 11 points.  K-State 35-13.

Arkansas (-15) @ Mississippi – What all Hog fans have been waiting for – a Bobby P team with all of his recruits versus a Houston Nutt team with all of his recruits.  Forget the Houston Nutt Factor here (winning one game a year he shouldn’t).  Not gonna happen because his team is not very good.  Hogs have had a week off and have nothing ahead to overlook this game.  The Rebel fans will stay in the Grove, and the Hog fans will take over the tiny stadium the Rebels call home down there.  Hogs big 42-17.

Wisconsin (-7.5) @ Michigan State – How about Sparty huh?  Winning a big game over their biggest rival last week.  Letdown anybody?  They have the #2 defense in the land.  They are on a roll.  But let’s just hold on a minute.  The Big Ten team that has been dominating everyone in its way is coming to town.  Russell Wilson and the two-headed monster at running back is coming to play this weekend.  Did I mention anything about the mauler offensive line of the Badgers?  The Badgers lead in the nation in scoring offense.  What is going to give?  Michigan State’s defense has stepped up this year, but they have yet to face a balanced attack like Wisconsin’s.  Wisky’s offense is comparable to Alabama’s.  Do you remember the score of the Bama-Michigan State bowl game last year?  49-7 Crimson Tide.  Even if Michigan State’s defense somewhat shuts down the Badger offense, Sparty will have problems scoring.  The Spartan offense put up 10 points on Ohio State and 21 points on Michigan.  And the game I can’t get out of my head and why I like this game the most – Notre Dame 31, Michigan State 13.  Lay the points.  Badgers 28-17. 

 

Enjoy the games!

-Ernie

Week Seven

Not a great week of college football coming up, but at least it’s football right?  The “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion of the blog went 1-1 last week against the spread for a 9-3 record for the season.  The blog bounced back last week going 5-2 on straight up winners in national games (24-13 for the season) and 5-1 in SEC games (39-9 for the season).  Now let’s go to the games…

Thursday:  8:00:  USC @ California (ESPN) – Cal is stuck in the Thursday night slot again this week.  They were blown out last week at Oregon after a respectable first half.  For USC, this is the last game before a week off and back-to-back games at Notre Dame and Stanford at home.  So in other words, this is probably USC’s last chance at winning a game in October.  Trojans care just enough to win 28-24.

Friday:  8:00:  Hawaii @ San Jose State (ESPN) – Sorry that’s all I got.  Go watch some high school football somewhere.

Saturday: 

11:00 AM:  #11 Michigan @ #23 Michigan State (ESPN) – Meechigan keeps beating unranked teams and climbing the polls.  Obviously these two teams hate each other.  Who do you think has the #1 total defense in the nation?  Alabama?  LSU? Penn St.? Boise?  Nope, it is Michigan State giving up only 173 yards per game.  Granted they have only played Notre Dame and Ohio State for the most part this year, but it is still impressive.  I think the East Lansing crowd and the Sparty D win this one for the home team.  Sparty 24-20.

#20 Baylor @ #21 Texas A&M (FX) – Another “The Scoreboard May Blow Up” game.  The #4 and #18 scoring offenses in the nation square off at Kyle Field.  The fewest points Baylor has scored this year is 35.  The fewest A&M has scored is 29.  You need to watch this game.  Give me the home field team.  Aggies 38-35.

11:21 AM: #15 South Carolina @ Mississippi State (SEC Network – ABC) – Oh what a great job Dan Mullen is doing…oh wait…nevermind.  Am I the only one that thinks Mullen may get the heck out of Starkpatch after this year while the gettin’ is still good?  Spurrier decided to kick Garcia off the team after his quadruple secret probation ran out.  Oh and does it have anything to do with the fact that the Gamecocks put up 50 on Kentucky last week with Connor Shaw at QB?  But the media will turn the other way because it is Spurrier of course.  Gamecocks 24-21. 

2:30:  Five ranked teams get going at this time.

#1 LSU @ Tennessee (CBS) – I have learned to expect the worst being a Vol fan the last 4 years.  The Vols are due about 3 season’s worth of good luck.  Who knows if it will get worse before it gets better though.  The latest causality is QB Tyler Bray who is likely out for the next six weeks.  Don’t worry Vol fans – it’s just #1 LSU coming to town this week and at #2 Alabama next week.  Piece of cake.  This LSU-Tennessee series has been very strange since 2000.  All but 1 of the 7 games has been decided by 8 points or less.  Also, in 4 straight games before last season’s, a backup QB has started for one of the teams, which is the case again this year.  The backup QB’s team is 3-1 in those games.  I am not suggesting anything more than that in this one though.  LSU’s defense is too good and DC John Chavis will be a little extra amped coming back to his alma mater and where he coached for a decade.  Geaux Tigers 28-13.

Ohio State @ #16 Illinois (ABC or ESPN) – Ohio State is quickly becoming irrelevant, and they have to be disgusted blowing a 21 point lead at Nebraska last week.  Illinois is still undefeated, but I think they are overrated at this point.  Have the Buckeyes already given up on the season?  I say yes although I wouldn’t be surprised if they do pull off the upset here.  Illini 21-18.

#6 Oklahoma State @ #22 Texas (ABC or ESPN) – This could be the best game of the week, and only because it is in Austin.  If it were in Stillwater, the Pokes would run away with it.  The Horns are coming off a beatdown from the Sooners.  Surely the Pokes do not want to be outdone, so they will bring their A game to this one.  The young QBs scare me for the Longhorns, and the Okie State passing attack will be too much.  Cowboys 37-31.

Central Florida @ SMU (Fox Sports Net) – A great under-the-radar game here.  It is a rematch of last year’s CUSA Championship game.  Another shocker here – UCF has the #2 defense in the country and SMU’s is #14.  I am not making this up!  UCF has been very inconsistent this year, and the Mustangs are at home.  I’ll take them.  SMU 24-21. 

5:00: #2 Alabama @ Mississippi (ESPN2) – Houston Dale Nutt’s SEC Farewell Tour continues.  Tide 42-14. 

6:00: #8 Clemson @ Maryland (ESPNU) – What is going on with Clemson?  They are still undefeated.  I keep waiting on them to lose 4 games in one week – you know, just to get back to the Clemson I know.  They’re a young team playing with a lot of confidence though.  They better be up for this game or else.  Tigers 24-23.

Florida @ #24 Auburn (ESPN) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

Georgia @ Vanderbilt (Fox Sports/espn3.com) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

9:15: #18 Arizona State @ #9 Oregon (ESPN) – If the Okie State/Texas game is not the best game of the weekend, it will probably be because this one overtakes it.  This could be a preview of the PAC 12 Title Game, but Andrew Luck will have something to say about that before it is all said and done.  I think Oregon is far from as dominant as they were last year, especially without LaMichael James this week.  You all know I’ve been a big Sun Devil fan all year.  Oregon has won six straight in the series.  The Autzen Stadium crowd is tough, and it is very difficult to win there.  Arizona State has the defensive personnel to contain the Oregon offense.  BUT, if you have watched the Sun Devils defense at all this year, you have probably noticed how undisciplined they are with lining up, tackling, etc.  This is a recipe for disaster against the fast Oregon offense that can quickly take advantage of a defensive slip up.  Oregon 34-23.

If I Were a Bettin’ Man… - I’m feeling two SEC games this week.

Florida @ Auburn (+2) – Call me a sucker here, but Auburn being underdogs at home in this one is crazy.  Yes, I saw Auburn get burned by the Hogs last week.  But I have also seen Florida go nowhere on offense the last two weeks with backup QBs in, and yes I am aware it was against Alabama and LSU.  A little history here too – I have seen some very talented Florida teams go into Auburn and lose (’01 and ’06 come to mind); Auburn has won 3 out of 4 in the series.  The Gators don’t know who their QB is, Demps has been banged up, and their talented defense has been whipped like a dog the last two weeks and lacks confidence.  At least Auburn has a run game, and Trotter won’t play near as bad at home.  The Auburn defense is not good, but the weapons on Florida’s offense are seriously limited.  The home field will be a huge difference in this one.  Auburn 27-21.

Georgia (-11) @ Vanderbilt – Regardless of the new coach, Vanderbilt is the same ole crappy team.  They have scored a combined 3 points against South Carolina and Georgia the last two games.  While Georgia’s defense is not Alabama caliber, I believe they are better than the underachieving bunch at South Carolina.  That being said, I don’t see Vandy scoring more than 10 points if they’re lucky, so UGA can surely put up 21 right?  Bulldogs 27-10.

 

Have fun watching the games!

-Ernie

Week Six

I hate to depress everyone, but we are almost halfway through the season.  But this week is going to be great along with the weather.  The Texas State Fair hosts a big game this week along with some great SEC games.  The “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” portion of the blog went 1-1 last week against the spread for an 8-2 record for the season.  The blog had a tough week on straight up winners going 2-4 in national games (19-11 for the season) and 4-3 in SEC games (34-8 for the season).  Let’s jump into the action and see what we have this week.

Thursday:  8:00:  California @ #9 Oregon (ESPN) – Cal seemed like they were a program on the rise less than 5 years ago.  What has happened?  Meanwhile, the Ducks offense is as entertaining to watch as ever along with their uniform combinations. 

Friday:  8:00:  #5 Boise State @ Fresno State (ESPN) – Speaking of a program on the decline, Fresno State lost to lowly Ole Miss last week.  Boise will dominate this one.

Saturday: See the previous week’s blog if you don’t remember the Saturday morning routine.  After you repeat it a couple of times, you will get the hang of it. 

11:00 AM:  #3 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas @ the Cotton Bowl (ABC/KARZ local in LR) – No need to even pretend that we care about another game going on at this time today.  The Sooners have done what is expected of them so far this year – dominate all of their games with the exception of a tough road win in Tallahassee.  Texas has exacted “revenge” on lowly teams like UCLA and Iowa State (very sorry about that prediction last week people – I owe you for that one), so the Horns are feeling really proud of themselves.  Sorry, but I am still not impressed with the Horns.  Sooners are better at just about every position.  Watch this game all the way through and enjoy you a fried-something-or-another in honor of the Texas State Fair going on right next door from this game.  Boomer Sooner 31-17. 

11:21 AM Kentucky @ #18 South Carolina (SEC Network – ABC) – Spurrier is cracking that whip again on Dirty Garcia and benching him…until they fall behind to terrible Kentucky early in the game.  I wouldn’t advise watching a second of this game.  I’m for real y’all.  Anyway, Cocks 21-10. 

2:30:  Six ranked teams get going at this time.

Air Force @ Notre Dame (NBC) – Does anyone else think Air Force’s style of play will allow them to hang around with Notre Dame for four quarters and definitely cover the 15 point spread?  I’m just sayin – I’m not gonna make it an If I Were a Bettin’ Man pick though because I feel the Irish are coming around and have shown some consistency of late after I picked on them earlier in the year.  Irish 31-21.

#22 Arizona State @ Utah (Fox Sports Net Affiliates) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

#17 Florida @ #1 LSU (CBS) – Poor Charlie Weis.  His senior QB is out for this game after an injury during the Alabama beatdown.  So now he looks to freshman Jeff Driskel who will likely be a talent at some point but not yet.  I bet Weis has been in his Jazzy Scooter in the film room all week eating tubs of butter and raw cookie dough refusing to leave until he figures out a way to get Driskel in good situations in Death Valley to put up some points.  GOOD LUCK CHARLIE!  Geaux Tigers 28-10.

Missouri @ #20 Kansas State (ABC/espn3) – Kansas State is ranked again after an upset win over Robert Griffin and the Baylor Bears.  There should be no doubt now that Bill Snyder is a genius.  Kansas State is an underdog at home to an overrated Missouri Tigers team (in my opinion).  Give me the Powercats 28-21.

6:00:  #15 Auburn @ #10 Arkansas (ESPN) – The Hogs somehow escaped with a win last week, which was a huge win because it gives them a lot of confidence fighting through a lot of injuries.  Also, their schedule is set up real nice to possibly be playing LSU once again with at least a BCS bowl bid on the line…maybe even more.  Auburn magically pulls games out almost every week.  Michael Dyer, the last year’s BCS National Championship Game Offensive Player of the Game, returns to his home state to take on the Hogs.  He carried the ball 41 times last week against South Carolina.  I would expect him to carry a lot more this week after watching the Aggies gash the Hogs for over 300 yards rushing last week.  I have a feeling that the Hogs have a lot of angst built up after the way last year’s game played out on The Plains.  They were in the game and questionable officiating hurt them bad some would say and rightly so.  Tyler Wilson earned my respect last week as he continually picked himself up off the turf play after play to throw for over 500 yards and lead his team to a comeback victory.  The Hogs have been waiting on this game for a long time.  Hogs win big 45-24.

Georgia @ Tennessee (ESPN2) – Both teams and their fanbases are feeling very confident all of sudden for no reason at all going into this one.  Georgia feels good because they beat Coastal Carolina and the Mississippi schools (in unimpressive fashion I might add) and the fact Florida and South Carolina both lost last week.  So the Dawgs are tied for first on the loss side again with those teams.  Tennessee has a lot of confidence because of what Tyler Bray is doing on the field although he hasn’t won a big game yet.  Mark Richt’s two worse true road game losses at Georgia have come the last two times he has traveled to Neyland Stadium.  Although Derek Dooley may not say it, this is a huge game for him.  He needs this win to prove that he is making progress in bringing the program to national prominence again.  Oh and the little thing about his dad being a legend at Georgia and Derek growing up in Athens.  The Vols lead the nation in 3^rd down conversions on offense and Georgia is 3^rd in the nation on 3^rd down defense so that will be interesting to see how that plays out.  Georgia’s defense is highly ranked, but they built that ranking dominating the Mississippi schools and Coastal Carolina.  Aaron Murray is inconsistent, so who knows what to expect with him, but for the experts anointing him as an All-SEC QB at the beginning of the year, he is only 9-9 as a starter.  Georgia only scored in the mid-20s versus Ole Miss and Mississippi State.  Also, Georgia’s tackle and sack leader LB Cornelius Washington is suspended for the game after kickin’ it a little too hard last weekend after the game.  Tennessee WR Da’Rick Rogers has a lot of motivation this week as he decommitted from his home state team during recruiting to sign with the Vols, which is still a sore subject with UGA fans and players – so much so that Georgia players have been talking a little trash to him this week.  Also, the Vols defense is setup to defend a pro-set offense better than the spread offenses they have been playing as of late, which will help out in this game.  I think the Vols are gonna be a tough team to beat at home this year – on the road, not so much.  If anything, the Vols will outscore UGA in this one.  Vols 31-23.  

Vanderbilt @ #2 Alabama (ESPNU) – I saw a headline yesterday that said Alabama was worried about Vandy’s secondary.  Yeah that’s right…hahahaha.  Crimson Tide 34-9.

#12 Michigan @ Northwestern (Big Ten Network) – See “If I Were a Bettin’ Man…” below.

7:00:  Ohio State @ #14 Nebraska (ABC) – After last week’s destruction at the hands of Wisconsin, is Nebraska still the 2^nd best team in the Big Ten?  If so, the Big Ten is not as mighty as they thought they were in the preseason.  Part of the Big Ten’s downgrade has to do with Ohio State having a completely inept offense and player suspensions and new scandals occurring every week.  Taylor Martinez scares me to death, but I’ll take the Huskers in their first Big Ten home game.  Huskers 20-13.

9:30:  Two underrated late night games here: 

TCU @ San Diego State (CBS College) – Give me the Aztecs in a slight upset behind their powerful offense led by QB Ryan Lindley and RB Ronnie Hillman.  Aztecs 38-34.

Washington State @ UCLA (Fox Sports Net Affiliates) – Washington State has won 5 games the last three years combined.  They could get number four of this year tonight.

In another SEC game not mentioned above, Mississippi State gets back on the winning track.

  If I Were a Bettin’ Man…

Arizona State (-4) @ Utah – As everyone knows, this is the Utes first year playing a grind of a schedule as they decided to step up from a non-BCS conference to the PAC 12 this year.  How has that gone for them so far?  Well try 0-2 in conference including a loss at home against Washington (who is not that great) last week where they managed 5 turnovers and 17 yards rushing.  By the way, Washington’s defense is ranked #102 in the nation.  Well in comes Arizona State who is undefeated in conference and playing with a lot of confidence.  Vontaze Burfict and the defense are ranked #47 in the nation, which is dominate for a PAC 12 defense.  The offense is also moving the ball on everyone led by 6’8” QB Brock Osweiler and RB Cameron Marshall.  Jordan Wynn, Utah’s starting QB, is out with a shoulder injury too.  Even if the Sun Devils do not force five turnovers this week, which surely won’t happen two weeks in a row, the Sun Devils’ will control this game on both sides of the ball.  Sun Devils 31-20.

Michigan @ Northwestern (+7) – How in the world has Michigan gone from unranked in the preseason and now #12 in the nation after five wins over UNranked teams at home?  Do they really deserve this lofty ranking at this point in the season?  Well this is Brady Hoke and his young Michigan team’s first game away from the Big House.  While Evanston is not necessarily the scariest road environment, it will be a challenge since Dan Persa is playing this weekend for the Wildcats.  All he does is win when he is healthy.  He came back for his first game of the season last Saturday at Illinois and the Wildcats led by double digits.  Then he got banged up, had to leave the game, and Northwestern blew the lead.  I think the Michigan defense will have some trouble this weekend.  I’ll take Northwestern straight up in this one.  Give me 7 points, and I’ll take it in a heartbeat.  Northwestern 35-31. 

Enjoy the weekend!

-Ernie