“We Bowlin Baby” – BCS National Championship Game

The big one is finally here.  The powerful offenses of Auburn and Oregon are going to finally be on the same field after a 5+ week break.  There are a lot of ways you can break this one down, but any way you slice it, it is going to be a high scoring match up.  Nike versus Under Armour...here we go. 

Offenses

In one corner you have the Hesiman Trophy winning Cam Newton leading the Gus Malzahn offense.  In the other you have a balanced offense that can score in the blink of an eye led by LaMichael James.  I think the offenses are probably even in this one with Oregon having more of an efficient attack that will be able to wear down the very average Auburn defense.  They have scored 592 points (first in the nation) in 337 minutes of offensive time of possession, which averages to 1.76 points/minute.  Auburn on the other hand has scored 555 points (fourth in the nation - in one more game) in 377 minutes of offensive time of possession, which averages to 1.47 points/minute.  Although you could never label a Malzahn offense as a grind-it-out style, it is when you compare it to the relentless, fast pace of the Oregon offense.  Cam Newton has been unstoppable up to this point; I expect him to do more of the same Monday night, but remember that Oregon can match him.

Defenses

Oregon's defense doesn't get any credit because they are overshadowed by the Duck offense.  Auburn's defense doesn't get any credit because it doesn't really deserve any; the Tigers have basically outscored a lot of their opponents.  The Ducks defense is a credible 25th in the nation; the Tigers are 55th.  Remember that since the BCS began, all of the national champs have had a defense in the top 25.  Auburn's defense is not a championship defense.  Two of the teams that gave the Auburn offense the most trouble were LSU (ranked 8th) and Alabama (ranked 5th).  While Oregon's defense is not on that level, this will be the third best defense the Tigers will face this year.  Something else to consider - Oregon is sixth in the nation in interceptions.  I believe they can get their hands on some Newton passes and maybe get a pick six or a TAINT (Touchdown After INTerception) as my friends and I like to call it.  It looks like Oregon will blitz Auburn a lot tomorrow night.  Cam may run wild because of it, but we will see.

Special Teams & Intangibles

I don't have the stats on it, but I sure have seen Oregon score a few times on special teams this year with their fast group out there.  Wes Byrum has been at Auburn for at least 23 years, so I will give him the advantage in the kicking game (if only because he is wiser).

I have a startling stat regarding the apparent conditioning of Oregon:  They have outscored their opponents 139-24 in the 4th quarter this year.  That is an average score of 12-2 in the final quarter.  They have outscored their opponent in every game in the second half this year while Auburn has 11 of the 13 games. 

Recently, Heisman winning QBs have had a rough time in the national title game.  The thinking is that they spend so much time in the 30 plus days between winning the Heisman and the title game going to banquets, traveling and being away from the team that they struggle come game time because they haven't spent as much time studying game film, working out, etc.  I have to wonder if this has affected Newton, and I guarantee you Darron Thomas has spent more time studying film than Newton has.  I also think Oregon will have more of a chip on their shoulder playing the Heisman winner and an SEC team.

A couple of things going Auburn's way is obviously the SEC's run in the big game.  The SEC's tough conference schedule prepares the champion more than any other conference to succeed in a game like this.  Auburn has played a way more difficult schedule, but they have also struggled with the likes of Clemson (won in OT) and Kentucky (won on a last second field goal).  I think the SEC's streak in the title game goes down tonight.  Give me the Ducks to take the title in a very exciting game.  Quack Quack 47-38.

NFL Picks – Wild Card Weekend by Greg Sellers

So the playoffs are here and my Bears have a bye week (I need to enjoy this because it doesn’t happen often, plus, who would have thought this would have happened).  I’m not expecting them to win the Super Bowl but I do see the NFC as being up in air.  You can always hold out hope that your team can make it.  Plus, it doesn’t hurt for this young offensive team to get some reps in the playoffs.  Either way I think this helps out for the future.

Sorry that I haven’t had a blog up for the past two weeks.  I always go home for the holidays and spending time with family and friends is much more important than putting a blog together. Plus, the last week of the NFL is so hard to predict due to teams not giving a crap because playoff stuff has already been determined.

For the playoffs, I will be making prediction for every game and be putting my money where my mouth is.  This is the fun part of the playoffs.  Only a few games to do research on and you can focus on each one.  The picks will be in order of when they will be played.  Let’s get it on playoff style.

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1. New Orleans Saints (-10.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – Let me start off by throwing a number at you, 21.  That’s the average amount of points that this Seattle team has lost by in their 9 losses this season.  Stat #2, 7 out of 10.  That’s how many games the Seahawks have lost in their past 10 games (keep in mind they won the division which is so sad).  Stat #3, 1.  That’s how many teams they have beaten that is currently in the post season.  Stat #4, if you put money on Seattle and noticed they were down by 14 points and you had to root for Hasselback to cover, would you feel good?  Okay, the last one wasn’t a stat but it was to get your mind thinking.  There is only one way I would take +10.5.  If the weather turned out to be terrible and with the Saints having a crappy run game that would make me pause but other than that, you would be nuts to take the Seahawks.

2. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) – This is where you need to tell yourself, who do you like to win this game.  When Indy has won their games this year, only once did they win by less than 3 points.  Everyone seems to be riding the Jets bandwagon right now, I can’t figure out why.  They have a 2-4 record against current playoff teams but the Colts are only 1-2.  The one thing everyone is forgetting, the Colts have been running the ball and stopping the run lately.  They have been able to get over 400 yards rushing over the past 3 games.  If the Colts stop the running game of the Jets and put it on the shoulders of Sanchez, I’ll take Manning all day long.  The Colts come in as winners of 4 games straight and did it under great pressure.  When the Jets needed to win to make the playoffs against the Bears, how did they do?  I’ll take my boy Manning before I put my trust in Dirty.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs – I went back and forth on this game and came to the conclusion that KC is just happy to be here.  I tried to convince myself that the Chiefs were good at home with a 7-1 record and should be ready to go for this one but the Ravens are a veteran team and should be able to handle that home crowd.  Here are the teams the Chiefs beat at home (SD, SF, JAC, BUF, ARI, DEN, TEN) they are all terrible.  On top of that, they tried hard against Oakland and lost last week to them.  Their O-Line got blown up.  The Ravens defense is much better than that of the Raiders.  Also, Dwayne Bowe has the flu (could give it to others) and Cassel doesn’t seem right.  I just hope this doesn’t turn into a terrible “Ravens didn’t play well but just squeak by with a one point victory”.  They should be able to handle their business.

4. Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – This is one of those few games where you need to throw out stats and go with your instincts.  Now, some of you are going to say I’m a Packer hater and that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Eagles.  All the sports talking heads are talking about how great the Packers are playing and the Eagles are hurting.  Don’t let them persuade you.  These are the same guys that picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, they don’t want to admit defeat.  Didn’t Vick and DeSean take the week off to get ready for this game and rest up?  Is this essentially a game after a bye week for Andy Reid who is practically perfect preparing for games after bye weeks?  What has Aaron Rodgers proved so far in big games that makes you think he is ready for the big stage?  Aaron needs to show something to me before I pick him in the playoffs on the road, until then, I’ll stick with the road team.

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 3 Orange, Sugar, Cotton, etc.

Monday, the 3rd

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (-3.5) – Andrew Luck is a great QB, and the nation will finally get to see that in primetime tonight.  Virginia Tech is your run of the mill ACC champion.  The ACC is 2-10 in BCS bowls – meaning they are usually in way over their head when it comes to playing the big dogs.  I say the same thing plays out here although I am unsure how much the Harbaugh coaching rumors will affect the Cardinal.  Stanford 28-23.

Tuesday, the 4^th

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. Arkansas (+3.5) – The Hogs offense has been unstoppable and balanced since Knile Davis got the run game going.  The Buckeyes are reeling off the field after Tattoo-gate was exposed.  Terrelle Pryor continues to show that he is a selfish, disingenuous punk off the field with his various comments earlier this week.  I wonder how the Hogs defense will hold up against dual threat Pryor because they didn’t fare too well against the two they faced in Auburn and Mississippi State.  I feel Ohio State is not giving the Hogs offense the respect that it deserves.  I also get a sense that Ohio State or its fans are not really excited to be at the Sugar Bowl, especially based on the Hog/Buckeye fan ratio that will turn out tomorrow night.  It seems like it is gonna be a 2:1 Hog advantage in the stands.  I think in the end Ohio State’s offense will not be able to keep up with the Hogs in a great game; the Buckeyes are now 0-10 against the SEC in bowl games.  Arkansas 34-31.

Thursday, the 6^th

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee (-1) vs. Miami (OH) – The Sun Belt has left little doubt that it has leap frogged the MAC in determining which conference is the worst in Division I-A.  The Sun Belt is 2-0 versus the MAC this postseason.  They’ll make it 3-0 because I don’t like the instability of Miami (OH) with their coach leaving.  MTSU 21-17.

Friday, the 7^th

Cotton Bowl: LSU (-1) vs. Texas A&M – This is a freebie folks.  First I want to give A&M credit for defeating the two teams that were in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They have surprised some people (me included) this year and are well on their way to the top in the Big 12.  However, the Aggies have not played a defense close to LSU.  It will be a low scoring game, but I don’t see the Aggies doing much on offense.  Geaux Tigers 21-13.

Saturday, the 8^th

BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky (+3.5) – I’m probably going against everyone else on this one.  First of all, think of the drama Pitt has been through since they played their last game.  Wannstedt was fired after the last game, a new coach was hired who was subsequently fired for smacking his woman around.  And now, hot off the presses...Wannstedt, who was going to coach the bowl game, says nevermind; he doesn’t want to coach the bowl game.  Talk about drama!  Kentucky has lost their QB Hartline to suspension, but I think this is a good thing.  What this means is Randall Cobb will play more QB who is by far their best playmaker.  Give me Kentucky because of all the drama from Pitt.  Wildcats 23-17.

Sunday, the 9^th

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada (-7.5) vs. Boston College – Dear Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:  Just because you put your game the night before the national title game doesn’t mean it is important at all.  SO who cares who wins, but I’ll go Nevada 28-17.

Check back Monday for the BCS National Championship breakdown. 

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 3 (January 1 Bowl Games)

Okay so I decided I will do only January 1 bowl games in this entry.  I will get the rest up on Sunday-ish.

Bowl Season Record Through the Sun Bowl: 11-9 Straight Up ; 10-9-1 Against the Spread.

Saturday, the 1st

TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (-9.5) – This game is on ESPNU, and I bet about five people watch it.  Anyway, this seems like a big line for the Big 12 when its teams have looked really bad in bowls so far, but Northwestern has not been the same since their QB Dan Persa went down.  Without Persa, Northwestern is a bad team and probably not bowl eligible.  Give me the Red Raiders 28-14.

Outback Bowl: Florida vs. Penn State (+7) – As if the Gators weren’t struggling enough, Urban has left his team high and dry (again).  Penn State always lulls its SEC opponents to sleep in bowl games and usually comes out with a win.  I find it hard to see the Gators playing inspired football here.  Penn State 17-13.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State (+10) – Another game where I don’t see Bama being that excited to be playing in this bowl when they started the season off as #1 in the country.  Michigan State will be excited about the opportunity and playing inspired football after they were shunned from a BCS bowl game.  But Bama is just too talented for the outright win by Spartie.  Bama 23-17.

Gator Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Michigan (+4.5) – Things are getting desperate for Rich Rod at Michigan.  He played this Josh Groban hit (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJxrX42WcjQ) at the end of the year Michigan football banquet and shed a few tears talking about how tough it has been on him as coach at Michigan.  Don’t laugh, it’s not funny…actually, it is hilarious!  You know I have not been big on Mississippi State all year, and they have proven me wrong some.  But think about this, Michigan does not face spread offenses in the Big Ten, but they practice against one all the time when they face their offense in practice.  I think that is a big edge they have here being familiar with the Bulldogs offense.  I like the Wolverines in an upset here 38-31.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (+3) vs. TCU – This is the first time I have looked forward to a Rose Bowl in a really long time.  I may not take a nap during this one.  I am shocked Wisconsin is an underdog here.  They have been playing as well as any team in the nation and always have a chip on their shoulder, which will match the chip TCU has on theirs.  Give me Wisconsin in this one in a helluva Rose Bowl 28-24.

Fiesta Bowl: Connecticut (+17) vs. Oklahoma – The Big 12 has looked really bad in bowls this year, and everyone expects OU to blow out UConn.  We have seen this story before (see OU vs. Boise and West Virginia).  UConn is the type of team that is fundamentally sound, play really hard, and piss off their opponent.  I don’t see anyway the Sooners cover this spread, but they win in a close one.  Sooners 27-20.

Happy New Year!

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 2

This is more like part two of the bowl week blog instead of week two because this entry will only cover three days.  That is because almost a one third of the bowl games are played in these three days (11 games total).  I will have a post for the January bowl games on New Year's Eve.

This is the group of games during the bowl season where it really gets fun to me.  Games are played from early afternoon through the night each night.  Whether you are at work or on vacation, it is fun to keep up with the games all day long.

Bowl Season Record Through the 27^th: 5-6 Straight Up ; 4-6-1 Against the Spread.  Not necessarily off to a blazing start!  Time to play catch up... 

Wednesday, the 29th

Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. Maryland (-7.5) – East Carolina’s defense is the worst one in Division I; Maryland’s coaching staff is a mess.  Not a lot of excitement here, but probably a lot of scoring.  Terps win 38-28.

Texas Bowl:  Illinois (+1.5) vs. Baylor – Although Baylor is 7-5 and Robert Griffin is a great talent, the Bears are lucky to be bowl eligible.  They had three wins of eight or less and are on a three game losing streak – losing by double digits in each.  I assume Baylor is the favorite because it is Texas, but how many Baylor folks will really show up and make it a home field advantage?  Nathan Scheelhaase not only takes up a lot of room on his jersey with his last name; he has been fun to watch this year.  I’m going with the minor upset here Illinois 24-21.

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. Arizona – Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator is on his way out the door to West Virginia, so there is instability for the Cowboys.  Arizona has been reeling after a fast start to the beginning of the season losing four straight.  Arizona has just appeared to not care about finishing strong.  I see an Okie State rout here 31-17.

Thursday, the 30th

Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs. SMU (-7) – This is a home game for SMU.  Army has not beaten anyone of significance this year.  SMU will be hungry to redeem themselves after a CUSA Championship Game loss.  Mustangs roll 31-20.

Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State (-1) vs. Syracuse – These are both programs on the rise with the new (old for K-State) coaching staffs in place.  Who thought it would be a good idea to have a bowl game at Yankee Stadium on the December 30^th?  It will be a balmy 37 degrees on Thursday though…could be a lot worse.  I like Kansas State 21-17 in this one in a pretty boring game.

Music City Bowl: North Carolina (-2) vs. Tennessee – I have managed to pick every game of the Vols season right so far.  I hope I am wrong on this one, but I don’t like the matchup of the Tar Heels passing game versus the Vols secondary in this one.  Also, Tyler Bray will be facing an experienced defense that will likely confuse him.  On top of that, in the past eight years, the Vols have played and lost to three ACC teams in bowls by an average of 21 points.  The Vols are just happy to be in a bowl (the extra practice is huge for next year), and the Tar Heels need this win more.  Tar Heels 31-21.

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. Washington (+14) – I am going against the majority on this one; everyone is picking the Huskers in a blow out.  The bowl rule that applies here is the Huskers do not want to be here.  First of all, they had an opportunity at playing in a BCS game when they played and lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.  Second, this is a rematch game in which they blew Washington out in Washington in September by a score of 56-21 and made Jake Locker look like he should never be drafted by an NFL team.  The only hungry team in this rematch will be Washington.  I can just see Nebraska half-assing it through practice everyday and then sneaking over to Tijuana at night to party.  Third, I no longer trust Taylor Martinez.  It appeared at times that he was trying to sabotage the Huskers in the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma with his pitiful fumbles and decision making.  All that being said, I can’t predict an outright upset because the Huskers are way better than the Huskies.  Nebraska 24-23.

Friday, the 31st

Meineke Car Care Bowl: South Florida (+6) vs. Clemson – This will probably be the worst bowl game including two BCS conference teams.  Good thing they reserved the worst named bowl for the occasion.  You have an inept offense led by a bad quarterback in USF against an always underachieving Clemson team with a coach on the hot seat and a QB ready to call it a career and move on to baseball.  Rumor is Dabo Swinney may be out as head coach if they lose this game.  On the other side, Skip Holtz is a helluva coach to have this very mediocre Bulls team at 7-5.  They lost some close ones this year.  I like them upsetting Clemson here.  South Florida 17-13. 

Sun Bowl: Notre Dame (+3) vs. Miami (FL) – Oh what a matchup!  Renewing the old Catholics vs. the Convicts rivalry except they are far from what it was 20 years ago.  I think Miami has a more talented team, but Notre Dame has more stability with Randy Shannon being fired after the season and Al Golden being hired by Miami.  There will be a transition phase, and it is beginning as we speak during bowl preparations.  I gotta think that Shannon was well liked by the team, and they are still upset about the firing.  Notre Dame started catching on at the end of the year, and I like Brian Kelly with several weeks to prepare.  Irish 31-27.

Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. Central Florida (+7) – Remember when I raved about Central Florida during championship week and said the SEC team they play better watch out?  Well, it’s the Georgia Bulldogs that better be focused on UCF, or they will be in for a big surprise.  UCF is very athletic taking after the SEC mold.  They have an exciting offense and a fast defense (a little undersized though).  I have to wonder how excited Georgia will be about playing in Memphis on New Year’s Eve.  Will AJ Green show up or will he already be on his cell phone on the sideline talking to NFL agents?  I guarantee you two things with him in this one:  1) he won’t get hurt in this game because he will not put forth the effort and 2) he has already sold his game worn jersey to someone.  I like Georgia, but a lot closer than what most people think.  Georgia 31-30.

Chick-fil-a Bowl: South Carolina vs. Florida State (+3) – This is another tough one to pick.  Both are coming off of conference championship game losses.  The SEC Championship game loser typically bounces back in their bowl game going 11-7 since 1992 (and yes three of those losses are by Arkansas).  Both drummed Florida pretty good in back to back games so the common opponent gets us nowhere.  Both of these teams have a tendency to be inconsistent and sloppy although they both have talent all over the place.  I like the Gamecocks in this one with the deciding factor being they can build off this game to get a top 10 or maybe top 5 ranking to begin next year.  South Carolina 28-27. 

NFL Picks – Week 15

*NOTE* - Make sure to read Ernie’s blog on this week of bowl games.  The blog was initially put together by him for college only.  He was nice enough to allow me to put my two cents in on NFL picks.  I hate that I’m covering up his portion so make sure you scroll down and read his portion.  It’s a ten times better read anyway.

First, I want to say sorry for not putting a disclaimer up on my last two weeks of picks.  If you noticed back on week 12, I had 7 picks I liked.  When I feel that strong about stuff, you ride with it.  I should have noted that the past two weeks I couldn’t even find 4 picks that I liked and grabbed at straws.  That’s a new rule I have incorporated, if you can’t find good picks, don’t take them.  As you can tell this week, I only have 3.

Second, I love the NFL but going to an 18 game schedule is just completely dumb.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch every week and more gambling the better but the teams are going to be so banged up it’ll be ridiculous.  Let’s just look at the QB position right now and keep in mind, you can’t even sneeze on them without getting a penalty.  Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill, Brett Favre (the iron man), Tavaris Jackson (bizzaro iron man) are all hurt, and that’s ONLY the NFC North.  That’s almost half of the QB’s in the north that can’t play this week, insane.  I can’t wait to bet on the WR turned into a QB for the Bears game, that line can’t come up fast enough.

Third, I would just stay away from my quick picks at this point.  I’ve been rolled the past two weeks.  I’m just having a hard time picking games because we all know who the pretenders and contenders are now.  To make the blog quicker, I’ll just put up my picks for that portion with little or no commentary.

Fourth, now I’ve never been the luckiest man in the world (most people that know me are nodding right now) but can you all please root for my division winners, it sure would be nice.  To start the season I picked the Rams at +2000 to win the NFC West, and everyone other than the Chargers to win the AFC West +500, +500 and +600 for Chiefs, Oakland and Broncos respectively.  Also, before the start of last week I took the Bears at +140 (they can take the division this weekend) and Atlanta -200.  Let’s hope they all work out.

Picks of the Week = 3-5 (week 13 & 14), 25-20-2 (blog season total) No comment

Quick Picks = 8-15-1 (week 13 & 14), 43-51-2 (blog season total) Since I’m in a free fall with my quick picks I might as well just make fun of the Packers.  As much as everyone hates Favre now, I love it that he’s gone from the Packers.  Now they will know what it’s like to start multiple QB’s in one season.  You now have a Les Miles led QB taking over the Packers.  Let’s put it this way, I doubt Les Miles groomed him to be a good Pro QB, actually, he wasn’t even a good college QB, good luck with that.  Go Patriots!!!!!!!

Picks of the Week

1.       Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – This is by far my favorite pick of the week.  The one thing I don’t understand, is that the line moved towards the Seahawks, really?  Remember me talking about how over rated that home stadium is, well that still applies for this pick.  Seattle gets blown out by good teams and beats terrible teams no matter where they play.

2.       New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens just look like a mess right now even though they are winning.  The Saints just aren’t getting the pub they should because they’ll get a wild card due to Atlanta just rolling.  Look at the Saints record, second best in the NFC.  They are back to form.  I actually took this game straight up, +120.

3.       Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) – This might be the craziest line movement I’ve ever seen.  I took it this morning and then NFL Network had a story about how pissed off the Redskins were about the benching of McNabb.  In a one hour span that line moved from -7 to -9.5.  I’ve never seen that big of a move on just strictly reports of a team’s moral, crazy.  Glad I got it early.

Games I’m Contemplating

1.       Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-14.5) – This line is huge but the Pats are at home, they are killing people and Rodgers was the only thing holding the Pack together.

2.       Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings – The lines not out but how can you not go against a WR turned into a QB against a very good Bears D.  I’ll have to see what this comes out to be.

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1.       KC Chiefs (+3) @ St. Louis – Take Chiefs if Cassel starts, Rams if Croyle

2.       Houston Texans (+1) @ Tennessee Titans

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

4.       Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

5.       Cleveland Browns (PK) @ Cincinnati Bengals

6.       Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Miami Dolphins

7.       Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-3)

8.       Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

9.       New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

10.   Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (-8) – Ernie, I know you’re excited for the Tim Tebow drinking game to be back.  If only we could get Verne to announce this game, it would be epic.

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 1

If no one recognizes that quote, check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Q6vRLaqe8. It is from Saban's arrival at the Tuscaloosa airport when he was hired at Alabama. Man, that is some funny stuff! And it is one of the first things that comes to my mind when I hear of a team talk about going bowling.

Anyway, bowl season is already here and about 60% of the NCAA Division I teams will be playing in a bowl. I’m surprised the NCAA hasn’t mandated that every player dressed out has to play at least one down to continue the little league baseball mentality of including everyone.

The blog’s plan for the bowl season is to break the bowl season into three different posts for each bowl week and a special post for the national title game, give analysis and predict a score on each game along with who I would take against the spread. Some of the analysis will be no more than a sentence because some of these games (especially these earlier ones) aren’t even worth mentioning (if they weren’t a bowl of course). But as we get in to the better games, I hope to add some more insight on each one.

My Bowl Rules

There are always a few things that I take into consideration when analyzing these bowl games. These sometimes make bowl games completely different than if the same two teams met in the regular season. First, there is such a long layoff between regular season and bowl games, it can kill momentum a hot team has had over the last few weeks of the regular season. Second, as coaches leave or get fired, it affects the whole team, so I always take into consideration who has a coach leaving. Historically, it has a negative effect on the team (I’m looking at you Urban). Finally, I always consider the teams who don’t want to be there. Sometimes this is because they had higher expectations than the bowl they ended up in (think Bama and Nebraska). Other times it is because some juniors and seniors already have one foot in the NFL draft and don’t want to get hurt or play hard in the bowl game.

Saturday, the 18th

New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. UTEP (+12) – These two teams appear to be going in different directions. UTEP started out 5-1 and then lost five out of their last six. BYU started out 1-4 and finished 5-2. So we start off the bowl season with a matchup of 6-6 teams…yawn! But hey at least it’s bowl season. I tried to find an angle to see a team with an upper hand in this matchup, but I just kept coming up with two mediocre teams and 12 points is way too much. Give me the BYU Cougars 28-23.

Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (+1.5) – Northern Illinois has had one of its best seasons ever. Fresno has been as consistent as ever ending the season at 8-4. Fresno being the underdog makes no sense to this guy. NIU's Coach Kill (yes, that is him name) left for the Minnesota job. They also had a disappointing loss in the MAC title game, so you can chalk them up for two factors that will affect its bowl game that I mentioned above. Fresno is familiar with the ugly blue turf they will be playing on and will out to redeem themselves from the beatdown they received last time they were on it. I like Fresno in this one 24-17.

New Orleans Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy (-3) – Ugh...this one should set college football back 20 years. Don't waste your time watching it. Troy 20-14.

Tuesday, the 21st

St. Petersburg Bowl: Southern Miss (+3) vs. Louisville – This should be a good early game.  Flip a coin in this one.  I did, and it said USM 28-24.

Wednesday, the 22nd

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Boise State (-17) – This one has the ingredients of a letdown for Boise, but Coach Peterson does a great job keeping those guys focused. Also, I can't get the Utes beatdown by TCU out of my head. I normally don't like a spread this big, but this one is too small. Boise 45-21

Thursday, the 23rd

Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (+4.5) vs. San Diego State – The Aztecs are at home, but I see this one being closer than the spread.  San Diego State 31-28

Friday, the 24th

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa (+10) – Get ready for a long, exciting, high-scoring game in this one. These are the two top passing teams in the nation. Hawaii has been surprisingly good this year in my book. I think ten points is too much in this one, but Hawaii pulls it out in the end 45-41.

Sunday, the 26th

Little Caesars Bowl: Florida International vs. Toledo (-1.5) – See New Orleans Bowl above. Sorry to keep hating on these bowls involving Sun Belt teams, but they have no business getting three teams in bowls. Is FIU excited about leaving Miami and going to Detroit in December? Toledo is close to home and rolls in this one 28-17.

Monday, the 27th

Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Georgia Tech (+3) – Ahh...the triple option bowl. If you're wanting to entertain yourself during this one, grab you a 30 pack of beer and take a drink everytime a team runs the ball. I will be shocked if 10 total passes go up in this one. This game will last two hours. All this being said, I like the team from a bigger conference in this one. Ramblin' Wreck from Georgia Tech 21-20

Tuesday, the 28th

Champs Sports Bowl: West Virginia vs. NC State (+3) – Disclaimer: I'm not a fan of West Virginia since Rich Rod left; they are a program on the decline with Bill Stewart in charge even though he sounds like a really nice guy. Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson, on the other hand, almost had NC State a division championship this year in the ACC. Think about that for a minute...any QB that is good enough to do that, I am rolling with. NC State 35-34 in a minor upset.

Insight Bowl: Missouri (-1) vs. Iowa – This game is off the board now in Vegas because of the uncertainty (read complete mess) surrounding the Hawkeyes players. To apply one of my bowl rules above, Iowa definitely wasn't expecting to be in this bowl when it was ranked in the top 10 at the beginning of the year. Well, five losses later, here they are. Even more, their leading wide receiver is arrested for drugs and suspended, their leading rusher is out for the game, and their is talk that their backup running back has quit the team. Mizzou is looking to build for next year. Depending if Blaine Gabbert comes back, they could return 20 or 21 starters for next season, and a likely top 10 preseason ranking IF they win this game. Give me Mizzou 35-20
Talk to ya next week.