Saturday, January 8, 2011

NFL Picks – Wild Card Weekend by Greg Sellers

So the playoffs are here and my Bears have a bye week (I need to enjoy this because it doesn’t happen often, plus, who would have thought this would have happened).  I’m not expecting them to win the Super Bowl but I do see the NFC as being up in air.  You can always hold out hope that your team can make it.  Plus, it doesn’t hurt for this young offensive team to get some reps in the playoffs.  Either way I think this helps out for the future.

Sorry that I haven’t had a blog up for the past two weeks.  I always go home for the holidays and spending time with family and friends is much more important than putting a blog together. Plus, the last week of the NFL is so hard to predict due to teams not giving a crap because playoff stuff has already been determined.

For the playoffs, I will be making prediction for every game and be putting my money where my mouth is.  This is the fun part of the playoffs.  Only a few games to do research on and you can focus on each one.  The picks will be in order of when they will be played.  Let’s get it on playoff style.

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1. New Orleans Saints (-10.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – Let me start off by throwing a number at you, 21.  That’s the average amount of points that this Seattle team has lost by in their 9 losses this season.  Stat #2, 7 out of 10.  That’s how many games the Seahawks have lost in their past 10 games (keep in mind they won the division which is so sad).  Stat #3, 1.  That’s how many teams they have beaten that is currently in the post season.  Stat #4, if you put money on Seattle and noticed they were down by 14 points and you had to root for Hasselback to cover, would you feel good?  Okay, the last one wasn’t a stat but it was to get your mind thinking.  There is only one way I would take +10.5.  If the weather turned out to be terrible and with the Saints having a crappy run game that would make me pause but other than that, you would be nuts to take the Seahawks.

2. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) – This is where you need to tell yourself, who do you like to win this game.  When Indy has won their games this year, only once did they win by less than 3 points.  Everyone seems to be riding the Jets bandwagon right now, I can’t figure out why.  They have a 2-4 record against current playoff teams but the Colts are only 1-2.  The one thing everyone is forgetting, the Colts have been running the ball and stopping the run lately.  They have been able to get over 400 yards rushing over the past 3 games.  If the Colts stop the running game of the Jets and put it on the shoulders of Sanchez, I’ll take Manning all day long.  The Colts come in as winners of 4 games straight and did it under great pressure.  When the Jets needed to win to make the playoffs against the Bears, how did they do?  I’ll take my boy Manning before I put my trust in Dirty.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs – I went back and forth on this game and came to the conclusion that KC is just happy to be here.  I tried to convince myself that the Chiefs were good at home with a 7-1 record and should be ready to go for this one but the Ravens are a veteran team and should be able to handle that home crowd.  Here are the teams the Chiefs beat at home (SD, SF, JAC, BUF, ARI, DEN, TEN) they are all terrible.  On top of that, they tried hard against Oakland and lost last week to them.  Their O-Line got blown up.  The Ravens defense is much better than that of the Raiders.  Also, Dwayne Bowe has the flu (could give it to others) and Cassel doesn’t seem right.  I just hope this doesn’t turn into a terrible “Ravens didn’t play well but just squeak by with a one point victory”.  They should be able to handle their business.

4. Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – This is one of those few games where you need to throw out stats and go with your instincts.  Now, some of you are going to say I’m a Packer hater and that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Eagles.  All the sports talking heads are talking about how great the Packers are playing and the Eagles are hurting.  Don’t let them persuade you.  These are the same guys that picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, they don’t want to admit defeat.  Didn’t Vick and DeSean take the week off to get ready for this game and rest up?  Is this essentially a game after a bye week for Andy Reid who is practically perfect preparing for games after bye weeks?  What has Aaron Rodgers proved so far in big games that makes you think he is ready for the big stage?  Aaron needs to show something to me before I pick him in the playoffs on the road, until then, I’ll stick with the road team.

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