Saturday, November 27, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 12 by Greg Sellers

What a boring week, a complete push across the board.  I’m sick of this, it’s time to hammer out a great week.  Here’s the thing, I have 7 picks of the week.  That’s right 7, and I’m going to go undefeated.  Oh wait, you’re telling me I already lost one?  Forget I just said undefeated, I’ll go 6-1 then.  I’m just excited for this week to start.  If you don’t care about the Bears, just skip the next paragraph.
I am going to take the time and give a shout out to my Bears.  I’m proud of them sticking together and finding a way to win week after week.  I wasn’t really convinced they were a good team but they proved me wrong.  Here’s what I’m waiting for, are they great?  The end of the season will show if they are a contender or a pretender.  They have games against Philly, Lions, Patriots, Vikes, NY Jets and MNF at Pack.  That’s a tough way to end the year.  The thing is, if you want to be the best you need to beat the best, let’s hope they can.  Their O-line has been playing better, the D has been great all year but can Cutler play consistent.  We will see.
Enough of the Bears let’s get on with the recap.
Picks of the Week = 2-2 (week 11), 17-13-2 (blog season total) Really?! Three straight pushes in a row, I’m getting sick of this.  Time to hammer it this week.
Upset Pick = I’m officially getting rid of this section.  Not really getting good results and if you like to gamble, you need to get rid of ideas that don’t work.
Quick Picks = 6-6 (week 10), 31-31-1 (blog season total) Still at .500 but I’m not losing, that’s a good thing.
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions – It was a good start to the Thanksgiving Day.
2.       New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys – This is why Vegas is so frustrating, a one half point loss, that’s all it takes.
3.       Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Washington Redskins – The team just quick on Childress and they will be ready to play for this game.  I am a little scared that this game was at the Viks as a one point dog and now a 1.5 favorite.  I just think this will be like when Marshmallow Phillips got canned, the team will get going again.
4.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Bucs just keep games close.  I don’t think they have the fire power to win this game but they just play tough.  That Josh Freeman has definitely been a much better QB then I ever thought he would be.
5.       Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks – I realize people might be screaming at me that the Seahawks are at home and they love to play there but who came up with that?  That’s all I hear about this team.  Look at their record at home, 3-1 and break it down.  They beat two terrible teams, 49ers and Cardinals, and the Chargers at the beginning of the season when they sucked.  Their loss, a 41-7 point shellacking by the Giants.  Stop telling me they are good at home.  There is nothing there to prove that.
6.       St. Louis Rams (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos – Denver sucks, they really really suck.  I was trying to think of more to say but that’s all I need.  Let’s move on.
7.       San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) – I just believe in Manning at night at home.  I don’t know how he does it over and over again but you just can’t not pick him.  As I’ve mentioned earlier this year, I will never bet against him no matter what, it’s just stupid.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.      Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-9.5) – Winner!
2.      Pittsburg Steelers (-6.5) @ Buffalo Bills – Steelers are just a better team and should handle them.
3.      Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Houston Texans – Houston shouldn’t be giving 6 to anyone right now.
4.      Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) @ New York Giants – Are the Giants going to fall apart down the stretch again?
5.      Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (-10) – You just can’t take a stay at home dad as a QB on the road but man this line is big for Cleveland.
6.      Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears – Come on BEARS!!! I could care less if you prove me wrong but you should go with the hot hand of Vick if you were betting.
7.      Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2) – Can’t wait to watch this game tomorrow, should be a good one.  I guess at this point you don’t go against Matty Ice at home.
8.      Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Riders (-2.5) – The Dolphins just looked bad against the Bears and Marshall is out.  The problem is, I don’t trust the Raiders right now.
9.      San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals – Holy crap this might be the worst MNF game ever.  You can tell it’s bad when I’M picking the 9ers.  I wouldn’t touch this game with a 10 foot poll.

And They Muffed It - Golden Boot Style by Joseph Michael

This week I'm going to pick on a fanbase.  Two actually, Arkansas (no surprise there and LSU).  You could argue two of the better fanbases in the SEC, if not the country and without a doubt the most passionate.  But this game just can't get the recognition it deserves as a true rivalry game.  Maybe it's because we play for a Giant Boot, which would be great if it was a rodeo and not a football game.  Maybe it's because there is a Miracle on Markham I, a Miracle on Markham II, and an upset of the Bayou Bengals when they were number one in Baton Rouge, and it seems everytime they beat us, it's either a lopsided affair or we have nothing to play for, althoug 2008 was one of the most exciting games ever.  First of all, I realize we have only been playing for less than 20 years, and I know you don't just go to the fair, put a quarter in Voltar and become a full grown rivalry like Tom Hanks did in Big.  I know he became a full grown man, but you see the correlation I hope. (By the way, the part where they play chopsticks on the giant piano at the toy store, still one of the top 5 scenes of any movie of all time).  Anyway, I went to Junior College and roomed with 3 guys from Louisiana and it was great.  I've been to Baton Rouge, and I would suggest never ever going there as a Hog fan and if you do please go incognito.  When we went, we went to an Alabama Vs. LSU game disguised as LSU fans and I cannot say what the Tiger fans did to the Bama fans; it was raunchy at best and with my hatred for Alabama, I loved every second of it.  All I know, is they have wonderful fans and their motto is kind of like Outback Steakhouse, "No Rules, Just Right" and they hate your guts if you don't say "TigerBait" a thousand times an hour.  Much like us with "Woo Pig".  Maybe it's not a true rivalry game because the national media doesn't bill it as one.  We all know that all it would take is ESPN playing "Battle of the Boot" commercials for a few weeks to make this into a step below Michigan/Ohio St., hell they won Tebow the Heisman doing that.

Another thing is neither of us have a true rival.  We as Arkansas fans would love to have a true rival, not ASU either, get over it Indian fans, it's not going to happen, you're terrible and I mean to offend people when I say this, but please tell your coach to either grow a beard or get a clean shave, the in between look just isn't working.  I understand it's the SEC so you are pretty much playing for your livelihood each and every week, but most SEC teams do have a rival.  The problem is we are too proud to call Ole Miss ours, which I think is rightfully so, plus they already have Mississippi St. and LSU is too proud to call us their rival, yet they have no one.  I guess another thing was when Arkansas joined the SEC in '92 both teams were pathetic at football, and it wasn't until Y2K that both teams started spreading their wings and living at or towards the top of the SEC West.  This game has everything to become a rivalry, maybe I just need to give it time, be patient and have faith in Tiger Fans that they will see we are a worthy opponent and should be taken serious year in and year out.  Until then, I guess we'll just have to deal with not having a rival until we are both in the Top 15 every year, and we come up with a better name than the "Battle of the Boot."  Maybe we could have Gary Busey in the intro wearing a Giant Golden Boot on each foot and introducing the game, until then this is probably where we are stuck.

For me and the rest of the TGIS crew, it's off to the Golf Course to drink some Jager and Cold Beer, hope Tennesssee becomes bowl eligible, and play a little Baggo until it's time for kickoff.  If you're into drinking games and don't actually make it to the game and go to a bar and watch it, might I suggest a drinking game?  Everytime Gary Danielson says something about the game and Verne Lundquist makes a silly noise or growls, you take a drink.  I bet you don't remember the end of the game.  Well fans, enjoy the Golf Course, the game and hopefully the Rivermarket tonight celebrating a Hog Victory and as Ernie likes to say, please keep the girl fights to a minimum...

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Week Thirteen – Rivalry Week & Turkey Day NFL Picks

The last week of the regular season is already here (except for a few games next week – mainly the Big East and Pac 10).  Excuse me while I shed a tear.  It has been a great season as usual.  We still have several conference races to decide – both Big 12 divisions, Big Ten, one of the ACC divisions to name a few.  

SEC Games – 6-0 straight up last week; 74-14 for the season. 

#2 Auburn @ #11 Alabama (Friday) – I wish I was going to this game.  The most intense rivalry already (yes, even more than Michigan-Ohio State).  I’m sure you will be able to feel the tension in the air tomorrow in Tuscaloosa.  Auburn still has national title hopes; Alabama is just playing for pride at this point trying to ruin Auburn’s season.  This one is hard to predict.  One part of me wants to say Auburn has made it this far, and they are going to win.  They have extra motivation because they are underdogs according to Vegas in this one.  However, as I have said all season, Auburn’s schedule has been tailor-made to get to this point, BUT their weak road schedule has not prepared them for what they are going to see tomorrow.  I like the way Bama’s offense has been clicking lately.  We all know that Cam Newton and the Tiger offense are gonna get theirs, but will it be enough to keep up with the matchup of Bama’s explosive offense versus Auburn’s questionable defense?  To be a championship type team, you have to have a great defense.  Auburn does not, and I think this is the game where the defense fails and Auburn loses.  Stat for you:  since the BCS began in 1998, the worst ranked defense for a championship team is 23rd (’02 Ohio State).  Auburn right now is sitting at #50 in total defense in the nation.  This is why I do not think Auburn wins the national title even if they get past Bama.  That being said, give me Bama 34-31.

Florida @ #22 Florida State – Urban is 16-1 versus his three biggest rivals at Florida (Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida State) and he has not lost to Florida State.  Both teams have been very unpredictable this year, which makes this game just about impossible to predict.  Something tells me Meyer outcoaches Jimbo Fisher in this one.  The Gators somehow find a way to score enough points and continue the streak on the ‘Noles.  Gators 21-20   

#5 LSU @ #12 Arkansas – Huge game in Little Rock.  LSU hopes to secure a BCS bid and still an outside shot at the national championship game.  The Hogs want a 10 win season and a chance at getting selected for a BCS bowl.  Based on my analysis (may be wrong here), Stanford, Boise and the Big Ten schools stand in the way of the Hogs getting a BCS bid if the Hogs can pull this one out.  There are two things I like in this game:  the Hogs balance on offense and LSU’s defense, which will be facing each other all day long.  The Tiger’s defense began to worry me last week by giving up so many points to Ole Miss.  It is hard not to like the Hogs in this one because their offense is playing so well, and they will have a “spirited” Little Rock crowd behind them.  I just don’t see LSU’s offense keeping up even though Jordan Jefferson has improved as of late.  Hogs 28-24

#18 South Carolina @ Clemson – See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below.

In other games, the SEC will continue to embarrass the ACC with Georgia beating Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt taking Wake Forest down.  Finally, I’m calling for Tennessee over Kentucky and Ole Miss to upset #25 Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Houston Nutt will go back to selling used cars after the game.

Notable Games Around the Nation – 2-2 straight up last week; 21-8 for the season

#21 Arizona @ #1 Oregon (Friday) – I did seriously dream last night that Arizona won this game, but surely not right?  Ducks 38-24

#4 Boise State @ #19 Nevada – I am a believer in Boise.  You can trash their schedule all you want, but they just dominate everyone that they play.  After last week’s 51-0 loss to Boise, Pat Hill, Fresno’s coach, said he has not been beaten like that at Fresno and that Boise is for real.  Pat Hill has had some good teams and pulled off some upsets in his time at Fresno.  The hometown Reno crowd will be psyched for the game, and Colin Kaepernick is a hell of a player and athlete (he was drafted in the 2009 MLB draft).  When it comes down to it, Kellen Moore doesn’t beat himself, so the other team has to be a lot better to beat Boise.  Nevada is not a lot better.  Boise wins 35-28      

#13 Oklahoma @ #9 Oklahoma State – It’s Bedlam in Stillwater with College Gameday paying a visit.  I’ve been disappointed with Oklahoma’s inconsistency this year.  They have played like garbage on the road this year going 2-2 including a narrow two point win at Cincinnati.  Simply put,  Okie State is on a roll!  Since the beginning of October, all of the Cowboys wins have been by double digits.  They are trying to get to the Big 12 championship game for the first time.  The Sooners will likely win the South is they win here after a confusing tiebreaker (just trust me on this one).  The Sooners have shown enough chinks in the armor this year that I don’t think they win here.  Cowboys book their reservations to Jerry’s World next week 31-21.   

If I were a bettin’ man... – 1-1 against the spread last week; 10-13 for the season

#18 South Carolina (-3) @ Clemson – I’m gonna make this one simple.  This is a huge rivalry game in the Palmetto state.  Spurrier enjoys rubbing it in his rivals faces when he can.  For the first time since he got to South Carolina, he has a much better team than Clemson.  The Cocks roll in front of the Clemson crowd as the ACC continues to get dominated by the SEC.  Take the Gamecocks in this one by at least 10 points.

#10 Michigan State (-1.5) @ Penn State – Michigan State is playing for a piece of the Big Ten title; Penn State has nothing to play for except bowl positioning.  This is a very mediocre PSU team…and Vegas is only giving them 1.5 points.  Sign me up on this one!  Sparty by at least 10.

Thursday NFL picks by Greg

Pats -6.5 @ Detroit
New Orleans -3.5 @ Dallas
Not one of his favorites, but if you have to: Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-9.5)

Happy Thanksgiving weekend!

Saturday, November 20, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 11 & And They Muffed It

NFL picks by Greg

I’m back everyone.  Sorry for the short blog last week, as you can tell, my quick picks suffered greatly.  What a terrible round of picks.  Also, my picks of the week the past two weeks have been weak.  Like my good friend Scott says “a push is better than a pull” but that’s no fun.  It’s annoying to get juiced back to back weeks (for those of you that don’t know what juiced means, it’s the 10% you lose on the losing pick).  Last week I felt really good about my main picks but as you can tell, that wasn’t the case.  Let’s get on to the breakdown. 
Be sure to read And They Muffed It after the picks.
Picks of the Week = 2-2 (week 10), 15-11-2 (blog season total)  KC is starting to scare me now, I’m going to back off of them for now to see how things turn out, they just got rolled by Denver.  Also, Tampa looks legit, Lions and Rams love to cover (according to they are tied with the best record ATS, against the spread, 7-2).  Side note to that side note, pay attention to what two teams I just mentioned, the Rams and Lions.  They don’t need to be a good team to in order to make money on them, you just need to cover.
Upset Pick = loss, 2-5 (blog season total) I’m about to just scrap this portion, kind of dumb any way.  It’s not like I bet it any way.
Quick Picks = 2-8 (week 10), 25-25-1 (blog season total) *Slap* That’s me getting bitched slapped across my face.  It’s embarrassing to throw up 2-8 record even when I wasn’t completely focused.  A monkey could have thrown feces at a board with the picks and done better than me.  In fact, I’m going to name week 10 as my feces of the week.
By the time all of you see this posted, I will be well on my way to Tunica and I’m pumped.  I’ve been doing really well on NFL picks and tagging along with some of Ernie’s stuff in college.  If this is to be my year, then Tunica should be the icing on the cake (at least I hope).  I just need to play smart, pocket money while I’m winning and getting out while I’m ahead.  That’s what I’ve been doing all season with my picks and hopefully that will translate to the felt.  Wish me luck, I need it.  Hope you enjoy the blog this week and everyone has a safe and wonderful turkey day.
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Here is a mixture of a few things.  First, for some reason Ben just doesn’t look the same since the whole dirty allegations.  Second, Pitts line is just in bad shape.  Third, the Raiders are a good team.  Fourth, the whole you can’t hit people hard I believe is really affecting the Steelers heads.
2.       Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys – So the Cowboys go from 14 point underdogs to 6.5 point favorites in just one week.  I realize the Lions aren’t the Giants but this is stupid.  Here’s a nugget of information for you, the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS and 0-4 at home.  Here’s what I like to say “bucket”
3.       Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5) – What did I say a few weeks ago, I need the Saints to do it twice in a row and they have.  Plus, Seahawks are a bad road team, the Saints have had two weeks to prepare and Reggie Bush is back.  This has the makings of a 31-10 game.
4.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers – Maybe I’m still clouded by the fact that I still feel San Francisco is terrible but if they do win this, I’ll have to finally believe they have turned the corner but until then, give me Tampa Bay all day long.
Upset of the Week
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers – I just feel it coming.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.      Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – TNF Pick.  This is the one pick I love being wrong on.  Bear Down, Chicago Bears.  You’re the pride and joy Illinois.  BOOM!!!
2.      Washington Redskins (+7) @ Tennessee Titans –Do I really have to pick one side on this one?  Let’s put it this way, this is too many points for the Titans to give up.
3.      Baltimore Ravens (-11) @ Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are terrible and you need to see who they are starting at QB (no seriously, check it out), it’s comical.
4.      Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals – Bengals should be giving no one more than 3 points at home
5.      Cleveland Browns (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – This line is freaky, how are the Browns pushing this game to pick ‘em.  This has Browns getting smoked written all over it.
6.      Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ KC Chiefs – Sorry Chiefs, you shouldn’t be giving any one 9 points right now.  If you do what you should, I’ll start believing again.
7.      Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) – This is Brett’s last meaningful game, that’s why I’m picking them.
8.      Houston Texans @ New York Jets (-7) – So people are constantly talking about coach’s on the hot seat but no mention of Gary Kubiak, why in the hell not???
9.      Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ St. Louis Rams – Here we go Falcons, show you’re a contender.  As much as I want the Rams to win this for my own future bets, this is a game you should blow a lesser team.  If you can’t take the Rams on the road, this team is a fraud.
10.  Indianapolis Colts (+4) @ New England Patriots -  Only four types of people bet on this game, an Indy fan, a Pats fan, an action junkie and/or a moron.  Both teams are solid, I’ll just take the points.
11.  New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – Giants, do me a favor and destroy Vick.  The Bears have them next.
12.  Denver Broncos (+10) @ San Diego Chargers – The people have spoken and they think the Chargers are back.  I don’t believe so yet, this is too many points.

And They Muffed It by Joseph
      I'm just going to jump right in here this week and not mince words. There are two things bothering me, or two Conferences I should say, so here goes...

1) Big 10, Big 11, whatever you are, the conference with Ohio St. and Michigan. You know the Conference Im talking about, the one that almost always seems to backdoor into a National Title Game and get their asses kicked. Anyway, the NCAA has got to force them to have a Conference Championship Game. It is a joke that they have 3 teams in the Top 12, I mean Michigan St. is terrible. I'm sorry, there just isn't any nice way of saying it. It's not going to fix the Conference and the fact that for the most part you are slow and are still going to get your ass kicked in bowl games that you aren't facing the MAC in, but at least you won't be clogging up the BCS Rankings the whole year or at least at the end of it. Right now it looks like 2 teams are going to get to a BCS Bowl and that is sad. It's not as sad as having your best idea ever and having a game at Wrigley Field and that blowing up in your face by now having to play one way Offense. But, that's a whole different story and a whole new set of jokes that I just don't even know where to start with. Look, just take some advice from a guy who knows nothing, you got your 12th member, split the 12 up into 6 team divisions like the SEC and have a Conference Championship at the end of the year so that way it at least looks like your Conference Champion looks like they accomplished something.

2) The Big East having an Automatic Qualifier for the BCS, are you kidding me? I have no doubt that somewhere along the way the Big East was a good Conference somewhere in the history of College Football, in fact I remember it. You had Miami when they were awesome. But now your best team is Pittsburgh? Thats awful, the Big East doesnt even have a team sniffing the Top 25. Look, the Big East getting an automatic bid to a BCS game is like Florida offering Peter Tebow a coaching position because of what Tim did. So what happens if we get a BCS game of TCU vs. Pittsburgh??? I'd rather sit front row of Blue Collar Comedy Tour 2 then watch that Bowl game.

Lastly, this isn't bothering me, but this guy definitely muffed it and I know I'm not the only Houston Nutt Hater out there, so if you get time, watch this., it's Houston Dale's Press Conference from this week. At some point, he actually claims that Michael Oher was a 6th Round Pick when they got there, only problem with that was he was projected as a 1st Round Pick and came back to help the new coach because his family loved Ole Miss so much. Only to get thrown under the bus a few years later. Houston, glad to see you are still the master of excuses. Sorry Ole Miss fans, but Arkansas fans tried to warn you, you just wouldn't listen. Mission Accomplished, Program torn down in a record breaking 3 years.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Week Twelve – The Calm Before the Rivalry Week Storm

Not a lot of great ones this week as everyone is gearing up for the all important final week of the season where most teams play their rivals.  If you have some time on your hands, read the following post from an LSU message board for a full conspiracy theory of events regarding Auburn and Cam Newton.  It is a great read, and someone has way too much time on their hands with all the facts (or fiction) throughout the post.  I have to say that none of it is too far fetched in my opinion though.

SEC Games – 6-1 straight up last week; 68-14 for the season.  Just for the record, I am beating ESPN SEC blogger Chris Low by two games on the season.

Georgia State @ #11 Alabama – Don’t feel sorry for Alabama because six SEC teams have had bye weeks before they have played the Crimson Tide.  The Tide are essentially having its second bye week of the season by playing a football team in its first year of existence this week.  I’m sure Saban spent maybe 15 minutes getting the troops ready for GSU, while the rest of the week they were preparing for Auburn next week.  Bama 53-3

#13 Arkansas @ #21 Mississippi State – Beware Razorbacks.  Don’t get caught looking ahead this week to your potential top 10, BCS play-in game next week in Little Rock against LSU.  The Bulldogs were flattened last week at Bama and have since been forgotten about by everyone, but they have had a good year that has exceeded most expectations.  The Hogs are flying high into Stark-vegas with a balanced offense since Knile Davis has taken over the majority of carries at running back.  The Hogs have all of the opportunity in the world before them right now, which is typically the time that they screw things up over the last few years.  They better take the Bulldogs seriously because they will be jacked up in the first game at home since the death of a teammate.  I like the Hogs here, but it will be a battle.  At this point, it is all about surviving and moving on.  Hogs 31-27

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt – See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below

In the SEC games that I have no interest in watching this weekend, give me South Carolina over Troy (by the way, congratulations Gamecocks for fielding the worst SEC East champ ever this year), Florida over the inbreds from Appalachia, and LSU over Ole Miss (did everyone catch HDN’s press conference on Monday).

Notable Games Around the Nation – 1-0 straight up last week; 19-6 for the season

#8 Nebraska @ #19 Texas A&M – See “If I were a bettin’ man…” segment below

#16 Virginia Tech @ #24 Miami – The Hokies are doing what they do every year.  Choke at some point during the season and everyone ignores them.  Then they run off several wins in a row and everyone humors them and talks about how they are back.  Whatever…they were irrelevant the moment they choked away the first game of the season to Boise and then followed it up with a loss to James Madison the next week.  Miami will not have Jacory Harris this game (as of Thursday).  So I’m gonna go ahead and say the Hokies are great and they deserve a BCS bowl because that is what we say every year about them until they prove us wrong once again.  Hokies 28-21

#9 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa – Everything I just said about Virginia Tech – ditto for the Buckeyes.  At least the Terrelle Pryor for Heisman talk ended after they lost to Wisconsin.  All the whiteys in Iowa were upset when the Hawkeyes lost to Nortwestern last week ending their outside chance at a Rose Bowl berth.  I got a feeling Iowa gets up for this game and pulls the UPSET here.  Iowa 23-17

Illinois vs. Northwestern @ Wrigley Field – I decided to throw this one in because I love the concept.  The people at Wrigley decided that it wasn’t enough to have a loser play in the Friendly Confines all summer long so they decided to bring in two loser college football programs to continue the loser theme well into late autumn.  Seriously though, this will be a cool event, and I would love to be there.  Northwestern’s QB is out, so I am taking Ron Zook because he allegedly eats packets of sugar as a snack.  Illinois 24-22    

If I were a bettin’ man... – 0-1 against the spread last week; 9-12 for the season

Tennessee (-8.5) @ Vanderbilt – I told myself at the beginning of the season that I would never put more pressure on my beloved Vols by saying place a bet on them.  However, considering my recent string of losing weeks in this segment and my renewed sense of hope for the team as a whole has made me change my mind.  The Vols offense has been rolling the last two weeks since freshman QB Tyler Bray took over.  Yes, it has been against bad competition, but what exactly would you call Vandy then?  It is at Nashville, but Vol fans invade Vandy’s home field like no other and it is typically 75-25% Vol fans.  Vandy has been so bad this year, and Tennessee is playing with a lot of confidence.  I expect them to win by 14-17.

#8 Nebraska (-2.5) @ #19 Texas A&M – Don’t be alarmed Aggie fans!  That number in front of your name means that there are (allegedly) only 18 teams in the nation that are better than you (highest ranking since week one of 2005).  I know you think you have transformed into a good football team all of a sudden since you started playing your backup QB.  However, I still think you aren’t ready for the big time on a consistent basis (you did prove me wrong against Oklahoma two weeks ago…I’ll give you that one).  Taylor Martinez should be back to full speed, and the Huskers defense will lock down the Aggies offense.  The Aggies defense will struggle with the Huskers run game.  I like the Huskers in this one by 7-10 points.

And They Muffed Joseph Michael -

Coming soon…

Happy Saturday!

Sunday, November 14, 2010

NFL Picks - Week 10 by Greg Sellers

Sorry for the weak ass blog but I’ve been working late all week and I’m going to be in the office all weekend.  I still want to give my followers the week 10 picks.  I will be back with a force of a blog next week.  In the mean time, since you don’t have much to read this week, go ahead and count your money that you’ve gained from the Arkansas Swami (that’s right, I gave myself another nickname).  Here we go to week 10.
Picks of the Week = 2-2-1 (week 9), 13-9-2 (blog season total)
Upset Pick = loss, 2-4 (blog season total)
Quick Picks = 6-1-1 (week 9), 23-17-1 (blog season total)
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills – Cause they cover
2.       Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bucs point differential per game (+3, +13,
-25,  +3, -25, +1, +3, -6), don’t look at who they played on that +13, just go with it.
3.       KC Chiefs (-1) @ Denver Broncos – Chiefs good, Broncos bad
4.       St. Louis Rams (+6) @ San Francisco 49ers – Sam Bradford vs. Troy Smith, enough said
Upset of the Week
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco – See above
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.       Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts (-7)
2.       Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
3.       Tennessee Titans (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins
4.       Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Chicago Bears – (In a whisper voice) Bears are the worst 5-3 team ever
5.       NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
6.       Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
7.       Dallas Cowboys (+14) @ NY Giants
8.       New England Patriots (+5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
9.     Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Week Eleven – SEC Getting All the Attention Once Again

Three games have ranked teams playing one another this week and two are in the SEC (of course).  Man, college football would be boring without the SEC, wouldn’t it?  That being said, the recent events with Cam Newton make me think back to how the SWC disappeared because of scandals and cheating at several schools.  Seems the SEC is trying to head that direction.  On to the games…

SEC Games – 6-2 straight up last week; 62-13 for the season

#19 Mississippi State @ #12 Alabama – For the first time in the regular season since 2007, Alabama is playing a game knowing they are completely out of the national title game picture.  How will they react?  The more I see this good team struggle with the bulls eye on its back every week this year, the more I believe repeating as national champs is nearly impossible.  The Bulldogs haven’t played in two weeks and are emotional due to the death of one of its players.  I am still a hater when it comes to the Bulldogs though.  I know they have proven me wrong a couple of times this year, but I just don’t see the talent there to beat the Tide.  Bama 23-14

#23 South Carolina @ #22 Florida – This one is for the SEC Eastern division with the winner earning the right to get thumped by an SEC West team in the SEC Championship Game.  You know the story…Spurrier returning to his alma mater to throw his visor around on Florida Field (maybe for the last time).  As promising as South Carolina’s season once seemed, they have looked like the same old team that falters at the end of each year last week as the Razorbacks thumped them in their own house.  If South Carolina loses this, they end up 4-4 in conference (again) and either 7-5 or 8-4 on the season (again).  But Spurrier could forever be loved by the Gamecock faithful if he could lead them to their first (and probably only) SEC title game.  I’m not ready to completely write the Gamecocks off in this game, and I am not sold that Florida has figured it out on offense.  I’ll take the Gators though because of some boneheaded Garcia plays.  Gators 19-17

Georgia @ #2 Auburn – See “If I were a bettin man…” below.

In other SEC games, I like Tennessee over Ole Miss, Kentucky over Vanderbilt, Arkansas over UTEP, and LSU over ULM.

Notable Games Around the Nation – 3-0 straight up last week; 18-6 for the season

Terrible games this week nationally.  Only one top 25 matchup outside of the SEC – Kansas State @ Missouri.  Give me the home team Tigers in that one.  No other games worth mentioning.

If I were a bettin’ man... – 1-2 against the spread last week; 9-11 for the season

Georgia (+8) @ #2 Auburn My friend David Coleman talked me in to this one.  So if it loses, blame him.  If it wins, I’ll take the credit.  I seriously do like it though.  We all know what Auburn has been through this week.  Georgia is only fighting for a bowl game now, and everyone has forgotten about them since the Florida loss.  This game reminds me a lot of the 2006 game when Auburn was #5 in the nation, and Georgia was very average and breaking in a new QB you may have heard of – Matthew Stafford.  Four turnovers and an uninspired effort by Auburn doomed the Tigers as they were upset in a big way 37-15 at home.  Four years later, Auburn is #2 in the nation and at home against an average Georgia team that has shown it can be good at times with a first-year QB.  The pressure on Auburn is building by the day even before the Cam Newton news.  I have to think they struggle here.  I like Auburn to win but only by a field goal.

And They Muffed Joseph Michael -

Coming soon…

Happy Saturday!

Saturday, November 6, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 9 by Greg Sellers

On a roll now!!! I’ve learned my lessons from the past two seasons and it’s starting to pay off.  Hopefully I can keep it going.
Picks of the Week = 4-1 (week 8 ), 11-7-1 (blog season total).  Man, all it takes is one bad call to turn a game around.  Tennessee got a TAINT (touchdown after interception) to really open a lead but had a penalty during the play and two plays later San Diego scored, that’s all it took.  Good week though!
Upset Pick = win, 2-3 (blog season total).  I have picked 2 of the last three upset picks, not too shabby.
Quick Picks = 4-3 (week 8), 17-16 (blog season total).  Now my quick picks are picks I’m not totally sold on.  You can pretty much convince me to go any way.  I have to say, I’m above .500 and I’ll take it.  If I can stay at that level most of the year, that’s a win in my book.
There seemed to be some quirky lines this week.  I’m surprised at that because usually it’s tough to pick lines half way through the season because everyone has a good idea of how good each team is.  The problem with this year, it’s been crazy.  I don’t think anyone can put their finger on the great, good, decent or bad teams (for the most part).  What I’ve been nailing lately are the teams that people still think are good (San Diego, Minnesota, Dallas, etc) or bad (Cleveland, KC, Detroit, etc) because of their preseason thoughts, they haven’t adjusted their thinking.  I was kind of glad to see that San Diego won because now people will think they are back.  I just don’t see it that way (see picks of the week).  That’s been the theme I’ve been sticking with this year, ride with the teams people underrate and pick the opposite side of the overrated teams (in my mind of course).  Hopefully that formula keeps working.
One other note, my picks of the week are sometime done early in the week, so the lines may have moved.  As an example, I took the Chiefs at +3 on Tuesday but now it’s at +1.  Keep in mind that I might have a different thought on a game if it moves that much.  In the case of that game, it would probably drop that pick into my quick picks section because I wouldn’t like it as much.  The quick picks are always done the time the blog gets uploaded.  I just think I needed to note that.
Let’s bring on the winners, hopefully I can put up three smoking weeks in a row.
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons – Here’s a theme for this week, I’m going against my kryptonite rule.  I just don’t understand how a divisional game, that’s a battle for first place can be a 9 point game.  This just baffled me.  I love this game a lot.
P.S. My buddy Joe wanted me to inform the public not to take this pick.  Honestly, he needs to shut his mouth but I gave him is 15 minutes of fame any way.
2.       Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Oakland Raiders – At first I was torn about putting this in my picks of the week portion because I’ve been high on both of these teams for a while.  This line does suggest that these two teams are equal but I don’t think so.  Kansas City has a great 1-2 punch at running back and been playing awesome D.  This will be tight but KC will win outright.
3.       San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans (+3) – Let me get this right.  So San Diego finally wins a game against a good team, Houston loses to a great team and they are under dogs at home?  Everyone is waiting for the Chargers to turn it around and you think they’ve done it?  Houston is a much better team; also, Antonio Gates is out.  This is easy, give me the points.
4.       Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – This one was pretty simple to me.  Both teams are very good, but the Dolphins are undefeated on the road.  Also, they got a bad call in a loss to Pitt at home.  If this line was +3, I’d understand, but this is too much.  The Dolphins will keep this as a close game.
5.       Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles – I just think the Colts are the better team.  Peyton is the man; I don’t know how you ever bet against him.  Plus, it doesn’t matter who gets injured on his team, he makes anyone look good.  The Colts win about 75% of their games each year.  If you ever get a chance, always take points with the Colts with Manning under center.
Upset of the Week
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals – I can’t believe this is my upset pick but I’m going way out on a limb.  The Steelers haven’t been the same since Big Ben came back; they should be 0-2 with him.  I just feel like this is your typical trap game, go Bengals, make me look good.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.      Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills – Ughhh, my Bears are terrible and they’re above .500.  Here’s the thing, I’m a Bears homer and can’t go against them in this game (which means you should bet the other way).  If they can’t beat the Bills by a field goal or more, I’m jumping off the Big Dam Bridge.
2.      New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina Panthers – They’re baaaaaack!!! At least I think so.  I need to see it two games in a row to start believing, then they can make my main picks portion.
3.      Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Minnesota Vikings – This is your typical this team is falling apart, which way are they going to go, and I have no idea.  I say Minnesota either destroys Zona or they lose outright, no in between.
4.      New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (+4.5) – Because the Lions know how to cover a spread, that’s why.
5.      New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5) – Can you hate and love a pick at the same time?  The Patriots are a damn good team but the Browns are super feisty.
6.      New York Giants (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks – Can we stop talking about how good their home stadium is?  This team is terrible and if this was in East Rutherford, this would be a 14 point spread.  Giants are way better.
7.      Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (-7) – I’m not going to go back through my blogs but I believe I haven’t pick a Packers game correct.  Here’s what I’m doing, I might as well reverse jinx the Bears biggest rival, GO COWBOYS!!!
8.  Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – I realize this is my upset pick but I’m going to add one more note.  Never pick a road favorite, divisional game on MNF.