Sunday, October 10, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 5

New to the blog this week...NFL picks by Greg Sellers

I’m excited to introduce to you guys my first blog.  It involves gambling on the NFL, it’s going to be great.  The blog will be put weekly on Saturday’s and include every pick on the NFL schedule.  If anyone has any comments or would like to argue a pick, go ahead and do it, I’d love to see what you guys think.
I’ll explain the layout of the picks in a sec but first I’ll tell a little bit about myself.  First, if you are reading this for a great piece of English literature, you are wasting your time.  There will be plenty of errors in grammar, structure, etc.  I’m an engineer, I do numbers, that’s what’ll you’ll get, deal with it.  Second, I am considered the NFL guru in Arkansas.  That’s sad to say but I guess it’s due to the fact that barely any one cares about the NFL in this state, but I’ll take the title, sounds cool anyway.  Third, I’m a huge Bears fan.  Keep that in mind when I’m making my picks for that team.  I will never bet against them in my picks of the week but if I bet for them, I’ll try and give a rational explanation.
Enough of all of that boring nonsense, let’s talk about the format of the blog.  I will every week come up with a minimum of 4 picks that I feel strongly about.  It will either be a spread or over/under pick (if you are reading this, I’m assuming you know what I mean by that).  Second, I will come up with one underdog pick.  This means I will pick a dog to win the game straight up.  So far, through 4 weeks, I’m 4-0 in that category.  I picked KC three weeks in a row and picked Denver last week.  If you don’t believe me, ask the created of thankgoditsaturday blog, Ernie (who by the way does a fantastic job on his blog and gave me the inspiration to do mine).  Last, I’ll do the rest of the games.  Those games I personally will be staying away from (if you know what I mean) but I like the challenge of still getting them right.
This will be the only week I have that long intro.  From week 6 on, I’ll explain my thoughts of the previous week, show you my record, then get straight to that weeks picks.  HERE WE GO!!!
Picks of the Week (I’m going with 5, in no particular order)
1.       Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns (+3) – That’s right, for my first pick I’m taking the Browns, how you like that? Here’s a stat my friend Joe pointed out to me, the Browns have led in the 4th quarter of ever game and they are very feisty.  Their three losses have been by 3,2 and 7.  Home games were a 2 point loss and a 3 point victory against the Bengals. Falcons are overrated too.
2.       NY Giants @ Houston Texans (-3) – This is my lock of the week.  Giants can’t score at all, they destroyed the Bears and had a sad 3-0 lead going into the half.  Houston will also be getting back their stud linebacker Cushing this week.  Also, Vegas gives home teams three points.  Do you really believe these two teams are even, please, Houston will roll.
3.       New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals – I’ll make this quick, Arizona is terrible, N.O. hasn’t hit their stride yet and are still 4-0 and Vegas has been scared of all the close games this season.  I’ll be surprised if they don’t win by 14 or more.
4.       San Diego Chargers @ Oakland (+6.5) – Division games are always a closer game than people realize.  Oakland has only been blown out in one game this season, week 1.  Oakland is much improved, will have Bush for this game and I just think SD is just not the same.   I even feel this could be an upset, but take the points.
5.       Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys – Overrated, clap, clap, clapclapclap.  That’s my chant for the Boys.  Tennessee is fired up after that loss to the Broncos and this game will controlled by Tennessee up front (that means a close game).
Upset Lock of the Week (I’m calling it a lock until I lose)
St. Louis Rams (+140) @ Detroit Lions – I love the Lions feistiness but there’s just something about the Rams right now (maybe the fact that if they win the division I win a 1000 bucks).  If you read the article I read on ESPN, you’ll feel the same way too.  Bradford has been good, Jackson is the man and the D has done well.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.      Denver Broncos (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens – When in doubt, take seven points or more.
2.      Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) – If the Bills are going to win one, here it is.
3.      KC Chiefs (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts – This one’s tough because I really like the Chiefs but when the Colts lose they come back with a fury.  I say Chiefs run a bunch and keep it close but don’t have enough for Manning in the end (plus the Chiefs had two weeks to study).
4.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals – See pick 1.
5.      Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (under 33) – If the over/under was 25, I’d still take the under.  Panthers can only run/Bears have a great Run D. Bears never score….I was going to throw a joke in there but I’ll leave it alone.
6.      Green Bay Fudge (-3)  @ Washington Redskins – AHHHHH, I hate the Packers.  Quit putting your dumb fake title belt on your body Rodgers, you look like an idiot.  Here’s a concept, win an important game instead of being a fantasy stud.
7.      Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) – Vick/McCoy hurt.  San Francisco can’t be this bad can they?  I believe they turn it around here.
8.      Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-4) – I don’t think Moss will matter in this game, not used to the system plus Revis will be on him like a fat kid on cake.  Jets are just on a roll, plus they get Santonio back.

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