Saturday, October 30, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 8 by Greg Sellers

Good to see my picks of the week finally coming through (that’s good for me, that’s for sure).
Picks of the Week = 3-1 (week 7 ), 7-6-1 (blog season total).  Minnesota was so close to making that a perfect week.  Underdogs just keep winning, this season has been crazy.  You will see this week that I’m going to lean on a lot of underdogs.
Upset Pick = 1-1, 1-3 (blog season total).  Okay, so my promise didn’t come to fruition but it was a Percy Harvin foot of making it happen.  It’s fun to watch Favre, I’ll hate it once he is gone.
Quick Picks = 4-6 (week 6), 13-13 (blog season total).  So I got burned by betting my Bears and going against my better judgment, taking the 9ers and Cowboys.  One thing I have learned over the years is quit guessing when a hot team will go cold or a cold team will get hot.  You would rather keep winning until that one loss then keep losing while you try to guess when it’ll turn.  I knew better.
I’m leaving this section for a Bears rant.  Thank goodness it’s a bye week because I can’t be pissed off over a team that just drives me nuts.  I understand the Bears have a terrible O-line and struggle to run from time to time but you can’t go away from it.  It makes no sense to abandon the run like they have the past two games even though they have both been close.  They ran around 13 teams each game, that’s stupid.  When Cutler is getting sacked a billion times a game it might be smart to run some draws and screen passes to stop the defenders from cheating.  Also, they’re rushing average per attempt the past two games haven’t been below 3.5.  Let’s do simple math, 3 downs times 3.5 equals 10.5, that’s a first down!  This has to change and I believe it will after the bye week.
Another thing, Lovie Smith is terrible at challenges.  It was pretty funny that all my friends were making fun of him this past Sunday because it’s comical at this point.  What put the icing on the cake was Mike Lombardi devoting an entire article on how terrible he is and put stats to it on  We’ve been saying this for years.
Enough of the rant, let's make some money!
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) – I’m very surprised this isn’t a 3 point game or higher.  The Raiders are showing they are a decent team, the AFC is much stronger than the NFC and Seattle is not good away from home (the Bears game doesn’t count, they suck).  A healthy McFadden I think will run all over the place.
2.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals – I’m surprised Vegas is thinking these two teams are even (don’t forget, you get 3 points for being home).  The Bucs have an edge to them right now and the Cardinals are a mess.  Plus, my buddy Joe has told me that those fans barely knew who was on that team when they were making a super bowl run, I doubt the crowd will matter.
3.       Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas is finally starting to swing away from Bengals but even though they are at home, I still think they shouldn’t be favored.  Miami is undefeated on the road and Carson just doesn’t have it.
4.       Tennessee (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers – Wow, they really think San Diego Chargers are the better team, really!?  This is your classic, the Chargers need to turn it around soon but like I said earlier, quit guessing when it’ll happen.  Keep going against them until you see it and I’m riding Tennessee hard lately, and they have disappointed.
5.       Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys – So the Cowboys are bad, they lose their QB for pretty much the season and they are favored by 6.5??? I know the Jags are not that good but let’s be honest, Cowboys shouldn’t be giving 6.5 to anybody.  Plus, like I said earlier, AFC is so much better than the NFC.
Upset of the Week
See Tampa Bay – I just think they are better.  No need for more explanation.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
Quick note on the blurbs.  You noticed that my main picks are mainly underdogs and my other picks are favorites?  That’s why I don’t trust them, the underdogs have been cleaning house this year.
1.      Denver Broncos (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers – The reason why I put vs. is that it’s played in England (not Arkansas Ernie, the country).  This is your typical both teams suck, take the points.  Keep this in mind, if they have terrible weather which happens a lot in England, take the under at 42.
2.      Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-3) – I was surprised to see the Lions favored but they are undefeated against the spread.  Here’s a suggestion, you wait to make this bet because I would think the line will move towards the Redskins, it’s much better to take that pick at -2.5.
3.      Green Bay Packers @ NY Jets (-6) – Pack still banged up and Jets are really good.
4.      Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams (-3) – Pay attention here, if Stephen Jackson is hurt and not playing, switch this pick.  He’s the most important guy to that team.
5.      Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) – I don’t know why I’m scared of this pick.  This should be an easy win for the Chiefs but I will admit, the Bills are getting better.  If the Bills cover this, I think it’s time to start picking them as underdogs.
6.      Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots – The line is saying -5 for the Patriots and is closed due to not knowing the status of Favre.  To be honest, this will be the only game this year I’m making no pick at all.  There are too many variables right now.
7.      Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (-1) – Steelers I think are better but the Saints aren’t done.  I believe a rowdy Sunday night crowd will the lift the Saints
8.   Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) – Ughhh, this one is tough but I have always gone with Peyton Manning at home on a night game.  It think he makes a statement in this one.

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