Big East and Big 12 Previews

We are roughly 6 weeks away from kickoff of college football season, which undoubtedly has the greatest regular season in all of sports.  From now until kickoff, we will bring you conference previews of each BCS conference.  Typically, we will preview one conference per week.  I will give my analysis on one division and my trusty side-kick, Joseph Michael, will give his take on the other division.  We will include the predicted overall and conference records for each team and place the teams in their order of finish.  We will then pick our conference champ for the conferences that have championship games. 

As you probably all know by now, all but two conferences have divisions and conference championship games.  This is due to the two curmudgeon leagues (PAC-12 and Big Ten) soaring into the 20^th century by adding teams and splitting up their teams into divisions.  Word on the streets is that now the Big Ten is on the brink of deciding as a conference that this whole world wide web thing may have some staying power; they are all over it I tell ya.  Due to these events, we will first tackle the two conferences that do not have divisions/conference title games – the Big East and the Big 12 who had a couple of teams poached last year in Nebraska and Colorado to lose their divisional play.  Enough making fun of the Big Ten…it’s too easy.  On with the conference breakdowns.

The conference that sent a stellar Connecticut team into a BCS bowl last year only to get destroyed 48-20 by Oklahoma is back this year and as mediocre as ever.  I bet TCU cannot wait to get in this conference next year with a BCS bid up for grabs every year.  This is the only conference that plays five out of conference (OOC) opponents due to there being only eight conference teams.  Some load up on cupcakes with the OOC schedule; others have surprisingly guaranteed themselves two or three losses with their scheduling.

Big East Conference

1. South Florida (8-4 overall, 5-2 conference):  I waste no time on a surprising pick.  USF improved tremendously last season as Skip Holtz took over as head coach – beating Clemson in their bowl game and narrowly losing to Pitt and UConn while winning 5 of their last 7, including winning at Miami in a non-conference neighbor showdown.  Although it seems BJ Daniels has been at USF since the football program began in 1997, he is only a junior.  He has played in 27 games for the Bulls and is very athletic.  He needs to cut down on his turnovers though.  The Bulls have 5 returning starters on offense and 6 on defense.  They are also getting some added help on the offensive side of the ball with three transfers from BCS conference teams, including Darrell Scott formerly from Colorado.  He was the #1 RB out of high school in 2008 who transferred due to lack of playing time.  The Bulls conference schedule shakes out pretty well for them this year.  They have Cincy, Louisville and West Virginia at home – the latter could very well be for a conference title and BCS berth.  The road games could be tough at Pitt, UConn, Rutgers and Syracuse, but the only one in potential bad weather for the south Florida boys is early November at Rutgers.  I see them splitting the road games and going undefeated at home to get to a 5-2 mark in conference, which should be good enough to win the conference.  An intriguing matchup to start the season is at Notre Dame.   
2. Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2):  Cincy misses out on the conference title because the game versus USF is in Tampa.  However, I really like this team and Zach Collaros.  Collaros was terrible at the beginning of the year dealing with life after Brian Kelly who went to Notre Dame, and the defense had trouble defending anyone last year giving up 27 or more in 10 of 12 games.  Good news is the defense returns ten starters from last year (they couldn’t get any worse this year right?).  Collaros is the top QB in this conference and is a dual-threat guy.  Cincy also returns Isaiah Pead who ran for over 1,000 yards and DJ Woods who caught for almost 900 yards last year on offense.  Cincy will be able to put up the points this year for sure.  In conference, Cincy has West Virginia, Louisville and UConn at home and at USF, Pitt, Rutgers and Syracuse.  Just like USF, I think Cincy splits the road games and wins the home games.  The Bearcats go to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols on 9/10 in nonconference.
3. Syracuse (8-4, 4-3):  Syracuse, who some how managed to go 0-3 at home in 2010 versus Big East teams, has improved tremendously and quickly with Doug Marrone as head coach.  The Orange return 8 starters on offense and 5 on defense.  The Orange had trouble scoring points in long stretches last year but should be in better shape this year with the return of QB Ryan Nassib.  The schedule sets up where the tough games are at home.  I think the ‘Cuse get a lot better at home this year despite visits from Cincy, USF, and West Virginia while the road trips to Louisville, UConn and Pitt will keep them from winning the conference.  Syracuse goes to USC on 9/17 in nonconference action.  
4. West Virginia (8-4, 4-3):  This is my big bust for the year in the Big East just as they were last year.  Nearly everyone is picking them to win the league despite all the drama going on with interim/now fired head coach Bill Stewart and the guy with the receding hairline/mullet thing goin on (he’s gonna fit in great in WV), Dana Holgorsen, who was hired as coach in waiting but got to bring in his own staff for this season for Stewart to coach with.  Can you say awkward?  Anyway, that doesn’t matter now as Stewart was fired because he was trying to smear Holgorsen’s partying ways in the newspapers.  So Holgorsen becomes head coach a year early.  I believe teams are going to take a step back anytime a new head coach is brought in, especially one that doesn’t have head coaching experience at this level.  West Virginia loses mainstay, productive running back Noel Devine; I think he was on the BJ Daniels degree plan.  Geno Smith is back as their QB as well as 7 other starters on offense.  Their defense was dominate in Big East terms last year, but they lose a lot from that squad with only 4 starters returning.  The Mountaineers schedule is tough on the road this year with games at Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincy and USF, which will keep them from winning the Big East.     
5. Connecticut (7-5, 3-4):  New coach this year, which makes it hard to repeat as champ of this conference.  They lose their running back Jordan Todman who for some unknown reason left school early to go to the NFL.  He was later drafted in the 6^th round of the draft.  UConn also returns 9 starters on defense, which will keep them in games.  However, the offense is not there, and their road schedule at West Virginia, Pitt and Cincy are three guaranteed losses in my opinion.
6. Louisville (6-6, 3-4):  Charlie Strong has the Cardinals on the right track, but he is still a year or two away from competing for the conference’s big prize.  He returns only 3 starters on offense and 7 on defense.  Games at Cincy, West Virginia, UConn and USF along with nonconference games at Kentucky and North Carolina don’t bode well for much improvement in the win-loss column this year.  He should be a happy with a bowl berth this year, which I believe he will get…barely.
7. Pittsburgh (5-7, 3-4):  Add Todd Graham to the list of coaches riding Gus Malzahn’s coattails to get notoriety that are undeserved as a head coach along with Houston Nutt and Gene Chizik.  I think he is one of the most overrated coaches in the nation.  He’s coming to Pitt from Tulsa where Malzahn was his coordinator for a year.  He has grind-it-out offensive personnel carried over from the Wannstedt years now, and he intends to implement his spread offense.  Good luck with that.  We have seen this fail numerous times – the Auburn/Tuberville/Franklin and Michigan/Rich Rod experiments quickly come to mind.  Pitt does get four Big East home games this year, so if they some how figure out this offense, they could end up better than this prediction.  I just don’t see it.
8. Rutgers (3-9, 1-6):  Greg Schiano, who was the darling of New Jersey just a couple of years ago, is slowly getting on the hot seat.  Rutgers ended up 4-8 last year and lost its last 6 games.  Tom Savage, who was supposed to be the savior at QB, did terrible last year and transferred to Arizona.  Nine starters return on offense but only 5 on defense.  Typically, I would say the team should improve, but when it comes down to it, the rest of the teams in the Big East are better at this point even though I am not completely sold on my prediction of 1-6 in conference.  Surely they are better than that aren’t they?

-Ernie

Big 12 Conference

Well, I'd like to start off by thanking Ernie for the opportunity to do this again this year.  We had a lot of fun last year and hopefully we'll improve, give you some insight and have a little fun along the way.  All that being said, I'm not real happy with the boss (Ernie) for giving me the Big 12, I mean, I guess it's the new thing to have your conference named something with a number that has nothing to do with you.  To me there is a better chance of you going to a John Mayer concert and not seeing a pair of panties go flying onto the stage then to have a conference named appropriately.  My advice, which means nothing to the Big 12, would be to call TCU and Houston up and say "hey boys, we're getting the band back together and call it the New SWC (Southwestern Conference), but enough ranting and raving about how confusing college football is becoming.  I'm sure I'll be fired up to the point of being outlandish once the season starts.  Let's get to the predictions of the Big 12 that now has 10 teams.

As a disclaimer, these are my picks, if I picked your team high, beware, if I picked your team low and they aren't Kansas or Iowa St., be excited, you're probably in for a nice season.

1. Oklahoma- (11-1, 8-1): Should be no surprise here, returning 16 starters on offense and defense, including one of the most exciting players in the land, wide receiver Ryan Broyles.  Not sold on Landry Jones, which should be bothersome to Sooner fans since he is a redshirt Junior, but he was a 5 star recruit and the potential is definitely there.  Maybe they have some trouble down in Seminole nation early in the season, but I think having a week to prepare for Florida St. and the Noles breaking in a new QB, Oklahoma has the defense to make that hard on them.  I see them eventually winning that game.  After that, I think they cruise - they have A&M at home and I think they ride in to Stillwater 11-0 and have the Pokes ruin their day, night, season and National Title hopes...
2. Oklahoma St. (10-2, 7-2): Shoot Em, Shoot Em Pistol Pete, you know the rest of the chant.  It's mildly distasteful to say the least.  Anyway, I think the Cowboys will beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but find a way to lose 2 other games somewhere along the way.  @Texas, @ Missouri are my guesses, but that's all they are. But let's talk about this offense - Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon came out of nowhere last year, so they won't be surprising anyone this season and it's still not going to matter.  Even losing future NFL running back Kendall Hunter to the draft, I still expect Weeden and Blackmon to put up video game stats.  Not to mention they return 4 starters on the Offensive Line and I want you to remember these names, Herschel Sims and Joseph Randle, who had 5 Starts last year.  I know they are young Running Backs, but they have the talent and speed to make Poke fans forget all about Kendall Hunter. Defensively, I don't think they are as deep as they want to be; however, at the same time, I don't think anyone outside of Alabama is in the country.  Johnny Thomas is a playmaker at safety and heads up a fine secondary. I may regret picking them this high early, but I just think Weeden has too many toys and to me the best deep threat in college football.  They win every big game and lose a couple they shouldn't, mark it down.
3. Texas A&M (9-3, 7-2): As much as it pains me to pick A&M this high, I have to by default.  I don't think they'll be able to handle back to back games with Oklahoma St. and non conference rival Arkansas, but after that, I think they put together a nice, but to Aggie fans, an underacheiving year.  They return 18 starters and seem to have finally found a QB to go along with running backs Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael.  Looking really good at receiver with Jeff Fuller and Uzoma Nwachukwu too.  Also, I think that starting two true freshman at the tackle postions last year will start to pay dividends this year.  Their defense, I've got to be honest, I don't know a whole lot about, but I can't see losing a guy like Von Miller and it not having a negative impact.  All that aside, put some relish on your hot dog Aggie fans, you should be in for a great season.
4. Kansas St. (7-5, 5-4): That's right boys and girls. I'm putting all my stock in the Brown Brothers. Former 5 star recruits Bryce (RB) and older brother Arthur (LB), but it's not just that, I just really like this team and besides from their game @ Miami, I love their schedule.  I also think Bill Snyder has one last run in him.  However, it's all going to fall on Justin Tuggle, former Boston College QB, who transferred to JUCO and is now back in Manhattan, Kansas, hoping to make me look brilliant.  The talent on the D is there, will the offense show?  Will they win all the games they are supposed to?  Can they pull one upset?  If all those questions answer yes, then the Wildcats aren't just going bowlin baby, they're having a nice year.
5. Texas (8-4, 5-4): That's right folks, I have more faith in the Macarena making a comeback than I do Garrett Gilbert making a solid QB.  I know they have talent out of the wazoo on both sides of the ball, but I just don't think he can or will get it done.  I look for them to underacheive mainly because of quarterback play again in 2011.  Make no mistake, this has nothing to do with my dislike for Texas, as you read earlier, I picked A&M 3rd, I just can't see this team winning more than 5 games in the SWC.  And as bad as I want to right now, I will refrain from making a Gilbert Gottfried joke.  I may eat shit for this prediction, but that's what I'm not paid to do is give you my opinion and that's what I think about the Longhorns.  Good luck getting the ball Malcolm Williams.
6. Missouri (7-5, 5-4): Well you lost Blaine Gabbert, and James Franklin steps in, so let's see if he can put up the gaudy numbers that Gabbert did - 16 TD's and 9 Interceptions last season.  So let's chalk that intro up to sarcasm, hopefully you don't think those are gaudy numbers.  They should start out fast winning 2 of 3 and then close out with 2 very winnable home games.  They had a small but very good recruiting class and this is no insult to the Missouri program, but the Baylor game is huge, because if you lose that, you may end up behind them at (6-6) and hoping for a bowl berth.
7. Baylor (6-6, 4-5): Robert Griffin III, need I say more?  Wow, one of my favorite players to watch in college football.  This guy is so exciting I don't mind watching a game on FSN who I'm pretty sure uses the same cameramen as the Home Shopping Network.  I don't expect Baylor to have much of a running game outside of his scrambling ability, but the guy is phenomenal and worth 2 or 3 wins.  Good news is he is just a Jr. and the Bears have a few good young players on defense.  The ball bounces the right way for these guys, and they could have a good year, real nice year for Baylor.  But if it doesn't it could get ugly.  They start with TCU and end with Texas.  They have to hope they can find 6 or 7 wins in the 10 games sandwiched in between to fulfill my prophecy.  Either way, watch out for them in 2012.
8. Texas Tech (4-8, 3-6): Tommy Tuberville's job isn't getting any easier turning a team known for it's unreal numbers into a defensive powerhouse, but as the Macho Man Randy Savage used to say " the beat goes on and the beat goes on", you didn't get that?  Good, neither did I.  I just needed a filler because I have no interest in writing about a team I'm predicting to win 4 ball games and one of those is against the Texas St. Fighting Armadillos.  Good luck Red Raiders - I do like your mascot, and your coach for that matter..
9. Iowa St. (2-10, 1-8): Their best player is an offensive tackle, hopefully I needn't say more.  They will win one conference game against an awful Kansas Jayhawk team. Next....
10. Kansas (2-10, 0-9): Rock Chalk Jayhawk.  I love the hire of Turner Gill.  I think he is a fine coach, and if he is given a couple of more years, he'll turn everything Mangino built up and tore down back to where he built it up.  I wonder if Mangino is trying out for the Biggest Loser yet by the way?  Whole different story... Anyway, good news Jayhawk fans, basketball season isn't much further away.

Good luck Big 12 and Big 12 fans, I hope you can get it together and get some more members, but it isn't looking good, and neither are your teams after the top... Thank God It's Saturday is officially back...

-Joseph

“We Bowlin Baby” – BCS National Championship Game

The big one is finally here.  The powerful offenses of Auburn and Oregon are going to finally be on the same field after a 5+ week break.  There are a lot of ways you can break this one down, but any way you slice it, it is going to be a high scoring match up.  Nike versus Under Armour...here we go. 

Offenses

In one corner you have the Hesiman Trophy winning Cam Newton leading the Gus Malzahn offense.  In the other you have a balanced offense that can score in the blink of an eye led by LaMichael James.  I think the offenses are probably even in this one with Oregon having more of an efficient attack that will be able to wear down the very average Auburn defense.  They have scored 592 points (first in the nation) in 337 minutes of offensive time of possession, which averages to 1.76 points/minute.  Auburn on the other hand has scored 555 points (fourth in the nation - in one more game) in 377 minutes of offensive time of possession, which averages to 1.47 points/minute.  Although you could never label a Malzahn offense as a grind-it-out style, it is when you compare it to the relentless, fast pace of the Oregon offense.  Cam Newton has been unstoppable up to this point; I expect him to do more of the same Monday night, but remember that Oregon can match him.

Defenses

Oregon's defense doesn't get any credit because they are overshadowed by the Duck offense.  Auburn's defense doesn't get any credit because it doesn't really deserve any; the Tigers have basically outscored a lot of their opponents.  The Ducks defense is a credible 25th in the nation; the Tigers are 55th.  Remember that since the BCS began, all of the national champs have had a defense in the top 25.  Auburn's defense is not a championship defense.  Two of the teams that gave the Auburn offense the most trouble were LSU (ranked 8th) and Alabama (ranked 5th).  While Oregon's defense is not on that level, this will be the third best defense the Tigers will face this year.  Something else to consider - Oregon is sixth in the nation in interceptions.  I believe they can get their hands on some Newton passes and maybe get a pick six or a TAINT (Touchdown After INTerception) as my friends and I like to call it.  It looks like Oregon will blitz Auburn a lot tomorrow night.  Cam may run wild because of it, but we will see.

Special Teams & Intangibles

I don't have the stats on it, but I sure have seen Oregon score a few times on special teams this year with their fast group out there.  Wes Byrum has been at Auburn for at least 23 years, so I will give him the advantage in the kicking game (if only because he is wiser).

I have a startling stat regarding the apparent conditioning of Oregon:  They have outscored their opponents 139-24 in the 4th quarter this year.  That is an average score of 12-2 in the final quarter.  They have outscored their opponent in every game in the second half this year while Auburn has 11 of the 13 games. 

Recently, Heisman winning QBs have had a rough time in the national title game.  The thinking is that they spend so much time in the 30 plus days between winning the Heisman and the title game going to banquets, traveling and being away from the team that they struggle come game time because they haven't spent as much time studying game film, working out, etc.  I have to wonder if this has affected Newton, and I guarantee you Darron Thomas has spent more time studying film than Newton has.  I also think Oregon will have more of a chip on their shoulder playing the Heisman winner and an SEC team.

A couple of things going Auburn's way is obviously the SEC's run in the big game.  The SEC's tough conference schedule prepares the champion more than any other conference to succeed in a game like this.  Auburn has played a way more difficult schedule, but they have also struggled with the likes of Clemson (won in OT) and Kentucky (won on a last second field goal).  I think the SEC's streak in the title game goes down tonight.  Give me the Ducks to take the title in a very exciting game.  Quack Quack 47-38.

NFL Picks – Wild Card Weekend by Greg Sellers

So the playoffs are here and my Bears have a bye week (I need to enjoy this because it doesn’t happen often, plus, who would have thought this would have happened).  I’m not expecting them to win the Super Bowl but I do see the NFC as being up in air.  You can always hold out hope that your team can make it.  Plus, it doesn’t hurt for this young offensive team to get some reps in the playoffs.  Either way I think this helps out for the future.

Sorry that I haven’t had a blog up for the past two weeks.  I always go home for the holidays and spending time with family and friends is much more important than putting a blog together. Plus, the last week of the NFL is so hard to predict due to teams not giving a crap because playoff stuff has already been determined.

For the playoffs, I will be making prediction for every game and be putting my money where my mouth is.  This is the fun part of the playoffs.  Only a few games to do research on and you can focus on each one.  The picks will be in order of when they will be played.  Let’s get it on playoff style.

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1. New Orleans Saints (-10.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – Let me start off by throwing a number at you, 21.  That’s the average amount of points that this Seattle team has lost by in their 9 losses this season.  Stat #2, 7 out of 10.  That’s how many games the Seahawks have lost in their past 10 games (keep in mind they won the division which is so sad).  Stat #3, 1.  That’s how many teams they have beaten that is currently in the post season.  Stat #4, if you put money on Seattle and noticed they were down by 14 points and you had to root for Hasselback to cover, would you feel good?  Okay, the last one wasn’t a stat but it was to get your mind thinking.  There is only one way I would take +10.5.  If the weather turned out to be terrible and with the Saints having a crappy run game that would make me pause but other than that, you would be nuts to take the Seahawks.

2. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) – This is where you need to tell yourself, who do you like to win this game.  When Indy has won their games this year, only once did they win by less than 3 points.  Everyone seems to be riding the Jets bandwagon right now, I can’t figure out why.  They have a 2-4 record against current playoff teams but the Colts are only 1-2.  The one thing everyone is forgetting, the Colts have been running the ball and stopping the run lately.  They have been able to get over 400 yards rushing over the past 3 games.  If the Colts stop the running game of the Jets and put it on the shoulders of Sanchez, I’ll take Manning all day long.  The Colts come in as winners of 4 games straight and did it under great pressure.  When the Jets needed to win to make the playoffs against the Bears, how did they do?  I’ll take my boy Manning before I put my trust in Dirty.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs – I went back and forth on this game and came to the conclusion that KC is just happy to be here.  I tried to convince myself that the Chiefs were good at home with a 7-1 record and should be ready to go for this one but the Ravens are a veteran team and should be able to handle that home crowd.  Here are the teams the Chiefs beat at home (SD, SF, JAC, BUF, ARI, DEN, TEN) they are all terrible.  On top of that, they tried hard against Oakland and lost last week to them.  Their O-Line got blown up.  The Ravens defense is much better than that of the Raiders.  Also, Dwayne Bowe has the flu (could give it to others) and Cassel doesn’t seem right.  I just hope this doesn’t turn into a terrible “Ravens didn’t play well but just squeak by with a one point victory”.  They should be able to handle their business.

4. Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – This is one of those few games where you need to throw out stats and go with your instincts.  Now, some of you are going to say I’m a Packer hater and that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Eagles.  All the sports talking heads are talking about how great the Packers are playing and the Eagles are hurting.  Don’t let them persuade you.  These are the same guys that picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, they don’t want to admit defeat.  Didn’t Vick and DeSean take the week off to get ready for this game and rest up?  Is this essentially a game after a bye week for Andy Reid who is practically perfect preparing for games after bye weeks?  What has Aaron Rodgers proved so far in big games that makes you think he is ready for the big stage?  Aaron needs to show something to me before I pick him in the playoffs on the road, until then, I’ll stick with the road team.

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 3 Orange, Sugar, Cotton, etc.

Monday, the 3rd

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (-3.5) – Andrew Luck is a great QB, and the nation will finally get to see that in primetime tonight.  Virginia Tech is your run of the mill ACC champion.  The ACC is 2-10 in BCS bowls – meaning they are usually in way over their head when it comes to playing the big dogs.  I say the same thing plays out here although I am unsure how much the Harbaugh coaching rumors will affect the Cardinal.  Stanford 28-23.

Tuesday, the 4^th

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. Arkansas (+3.5) – The Hogs offense has been unstoppable and balanced since Knile Davis got the run game going.  The Buckeyes are reeling off the field after Tattoo-gate was exposed.  Terrelle Pryor continues to show that he is a selfish, disingenuous punk off the field with his various comments earlier this week.  I wonder how the Hogs defense will hold up against dual threat Pryor because they didn’t fare too well against the two they faced in Auburn and Mississippi State.  I feel Ohio State is not giving the Hogs offense the respect that it deserves.  I also get a sense that Ohio State or its fans are not really excited to be at the Sugar Bowl, especially based on the Hog/Buckeye fan ratio that will turn out tomorrow night.  It seems like it is gonna be a 2:1 Hog advantage in the stands.  I think in the end Ohio State’s offense will not be able to keep up with the Hogs in a great game; the Buckeyes are now 0-10 against the SEC in bowl games.  Arkansas 34-31.

Thursday, the 6^th

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee (-1) vs. Miami (OH) – The Sun Belt has left little doubt that it has leap frogged the MAC in determining which conference is the worst in Division I-A.  The Sun Belt is 2-0 versus the MAC this postseason.  They’ll make it 3-0 because I don’t like the instability of Miami (OH) with their coach leaving.  MTSU 21-17.

Friday, the 7^th

Cotton Bowl: LSU (-1) vs. Texas A&M – This is a freebie folks.  First I want to give A&M credit for defeating the two teams that were in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They have surprised some people (me included) this year and are well on their way to the top in the Big 12.  However, the Aggies have not played a defense close to LSU.  It will be a low scoring game, but I don’t see the Aggies doing much on offense.  Geaux Tigers 21-13.

Saturday, the 8^th

BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky (+3.5) – I’m probably going against everyone else on this one.  First of all, think of the drama Pitt has been through since they played their last game.  Wannstedt was fired after the last game, a new coach was hired who was subsequently fired for smacking his woman around.  And now, hot off the presses...Wannstedt, who was going to coach the bowl game, says nevermind; he doesn’t want to coach the bowl game.  Talk about drama!  Kentucky has lost their QB Hartline to suspension, but I think this is a good thing.  What this means is Randall Cobb will play more QB who is by far their best playmaker.  Give me Kentucky because of all the drama from Pitt.  Wildcats 23-17.

Sunday, the 9^th

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada (-7.5) vs. Boston College – Dear Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:  Just because you put your game the night before the national title game doesn’t mean it is important at all.  SO who cares who wins, but I’ll go Nevada 28-17.

Check back Monday for the BCS National Championship breakdown. 

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 3 (January 1 Bowl Games)

Okay so I decided I will do only January 1 bowl games in this entry.  I will get the rest up on Sunday-ish.

Bowl Season Record Through the Sun Bowl: 11-9 Straight Up ; 10-9-1 Against the Spread.

Saturday, the 1st

TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (-9.5) – This game is on ESPNU, and I bet about five people watch it.  Anyway, this seems like a big line for the Big 12 when its teams have looked really bad in bowls so far, but Northwestern has not been the same since their QB Dan Persa went down.  Without Persa, Northwestern is a bad team and probably not bowl eligible.  Give me the Red Raiders 28-14.

Outback Bowl: Florida vs. Penn State (+7) – As if the Gators weren’t struggling enough, Urban has left his team high and dry (again).  Penn State always lulls its SEC opponents to sleep in bowl games and usually comes out with a win.  I find it hard to see the Gators playing inspired football here.  Penn State 17-13.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State (+10) – Another game where I don’t see Bama being that excited to be playing in this bowl when they started the season off as #1 in the country.  Michigan State will be excited about the opportunity and playing inspired football after they were shunned from a BCS bowl game.  But Bama is just too talented for the outright win by Spartie.  Bama 23-17.

Gator Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Michigan (+4.5) – Things are getting desperate for Rich Rod at Michigan.  He played this Josh Groban hit (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJxrX42WcjQ) at the end of the year Michigan football banquet and shed a few tears talking about how tough it has been on him as coach at Michigan.  Don’t laugh, it’s not funny…actually, it is hilarious!  You know I have not been big on Mississippi State all year, and they have proven me wrong some.  But think about this, Michigan does not face spread offenses in the Big Ten, but they practice against one all the time when they face their offense in practice.  I think that is a big edge they have here being familiar with the Bulldogs offense.  I like the Wolverines in an upset here 38-31.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (+3) vs. TCU – This is the first time I have looked forward to a Rose Bowl in a really long time.  I may not take a nap during this one.  I am shocked Wisconsin is an underdog here.  They have been playing as well as any team in the nation and always have a chip on their shoulder, which will match the chip TCU has on theirs.  Give me Wisconsin in this one in a helluva Rose Bowl 28-24.

Fiesta Bowl: Connecticut (+17) vs. Oklahoma – The Big 12 has looked really bad in bowls this year, and everyone expects OU to blow out UConn.  We have seen this story before (see OU vs. Boise and West Virginia).  UConn is the type of team that is fundamentally sound, play really hard, and piss off their opponent.  I don’t see anyway the Sooners cover this spread, but they win in a close one.  Sooners 27-20.

Happy New Year!

“We Bowlin Baby” – Week 2

This is more like part two of the bowl week blog instead of week two because this entry will only cover three days.  That is because almost a one third of the bowl games are played in these three days (11 games total).  I will have a post for the January bowl games on New Year's Eve.

This is the group of games during the bowl season where it really gets fun to me.  Games are played from early afternoon through the night each night.  Whether you are at work or on vacation, it is fun to keep up with the games all day long.

Bowl Season Record Through the 27^th: 5-6 Straight Up ; 4-6-1 Against the Spread.  Not necessarily off to a blazing start!  Time to play catch up... 

Wednesday, the 29th

Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. Maryland (-7.5) – East Carolina’s defense is the worst one in Division I; Maryland’s coaching staff is a mess.  Not a lot of excitement here, but probably a lot of scoring.  Terps win 38-28.

Texas Bowl:  Illinois (+1.5) vs. Baylor – Although Baylor is 7-5 and Robert Griffin is a great talent, the Bears are lucky to be bowl eligible.  They had three wins of eight or less and are on a three game losing streak – losing by double digits in each.  I assume Baylor is the favorite because it is Texas, but how many Baylor folks will really show up and make it a home field advantage?  Nathan Scheelhaase not only takes up a lot of room on his jersey with his last name; he has been fun to watch this year.  I’m going with the minor upset here Illinois 24-21.

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. Arizona – Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator is on his way out the door to West Virginia, so there is instability for the Cowboys.  Arizona has been reeling after a fast start to the beginning of the season losing four straight.  Arizona has just appeared to not care about finishing strong.  I see an Okie State rout here 31-17.

Thursday, the 30th

Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs. SMU (-7) – This is a home game for SMU.  Army has not beaten anyone of significance this year.  SMU will be hungry to redeem themselves after a CUSA Championship Game loss.  Mustangs roll 31-20.

Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State (-1) vs. Syracuse – These are both programs on the rise with the new (old for K-State) coaching staffs in place.  Who thought it would be a good idea to have a bowl game at Yankee Stadium on the December 30^th?  It will be a balmy 37 degrees on Thursday though…could be a lot worse.  I like Kansas State 21-17 in this one in a pretty boring game.

Music City Bowl: North Carolina (-2) vs. Tennessee – I have managed to pick every game of the Vols season right so far.  I hope I am wrong on this one, but I don’t like the matchup of the Tar Heels passing game versus the Vols secondary in this one.  Also, Tyler Bray will be facing an experienced defense that will likely confuse him.  On top of that, in the past eight years, the Vols have played and lost to three ACC teams in bowls by an average of 21 points.  The Vols are just happy to be in a bowl (the extra practice is huge for next year), and the Tar Heels need this win more.  Tar Heels 31-21.

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. Washington (+14) – I am going against the majority on this one; everyone is picking the Huskers in a blow out.  The bowl rule that applies here is the Huskers do not want to be here.  First of all, they had an opportunity at playing in a BCS game when they played and lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.  Second, this is a rematch game in which they blew Washington out in Washington in September by a score of 56-21 and made Jake Locker look like he should never be drafted by an NFL team.  The only hungry team in this rematch will be Washington.  I can just see Nebraska half-assing it through practice everyday and then sneaking over to Tijuana at night to party.  Third, I no longer trust Taylor Martinez.  It appeared at times that he was trying to sabotage the Huskers in the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma with his pitiful fumbles and decision making.  All that being said, I can’t predict an outright upset because the Huskers are way better than the Huskies.  Nebraska 24-23.

Friday, the 31st

Meineke Car Care Bowl: South Florida (+6) vs. Clemson – This will probably be the worst bowl game including two BCS conference teams.  Good thing they reserved the worst named bowl for the occasion.  You have an inept offense led by a bad quarterback in USF against an always underachieving Clemson team with a coach on the hot seat and a QB ready to call it a career and move on to baseball.  Rumor is Dabo Swinney may be out as head coach if they lose this game.  On the other side, Skip Holtz is a helluva coach to have this very mediocre Bulls team at 7-5.  They lost some close ones this year.  I like them upsetting Clemson here.  South Florida 17-13. 

Sun Bowl: Notre Dame (+3) vs. Miami (FL) – Oh what a matchup!  Renewing the old Catholics vs. the Convicts rivalry except they are far from what it was 20 years ago.  I think Miami has a more talented team, but Notre Dame has more stability with Randy Shannon being fired after the season and Al Golden being hired by Miami.  There will be a transition phase, and it is beginning as we speak during bowl preparations.  I gotta think that Shannon was well liked by the team, and they are still upset about the firing.  Notre Dame started catching on at the end of the year, and I like Brian Kelly with several weeks to prepare.  Irish 31-27.

Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. Central Florida (+7) – Remember when I raved about Central Florida during championship week and said the SEC team they play better watch out?  Well, it’s the Georgia Bulldogs that better be focused on UCF, or they will be in for a big surprise.  UCF is very athletic taking after the SEC mold.  They have an exciting offense and a fast defense (a little undersized though).  I have to wonder how excited Georgia will be about playing in Memphis on New Year’s Eve.  Will AJ Green show up or will he already be on his cell phone on the sideline talking to NFL agents?  I guarantee you two things with him in this one:  1) he won’t get hurt in this game because he will not put forth the effort and 2) he has already sold his game worn jersey to someone.  I like Georgia, but a lot closer than what most people think.  Georgia 31-30.

Chick-fil-a Bowl: South Carolina vs. Florida State (+3) – This is another tough one to pick.  Both are coming off of conference championship game losses.  The SEC Championship game loser typically bounces back in their bowl game going 11-7 since 1992 (and yes three of those losses are by Arkansas).  Both drummed Florida pretty good in back to back games so the common opponent gets us nowhere.  Both of these teams have a tendency to be inconsistent and sloppy although they both have talent all over the place.  I like the Gamecocks in this one with the deciding factor being they can build off this game to get a top 10 or maybe top 5 ranking to begin next year.  South Carolina 28-27. 

NFL Picks – Week 15

*NOTE* - Make sure to read Ernie’s blog on this week of bowl games.  The blog was initially put together by him for college only.  He was nice enough to allow me to put my two cents in on NFL picks.  I hate that I’m covering up his portion so make sure you scroll down and read his portion.  It’s a ten times better read anyway.

First, I want to say sorry for not putting a disclaimer up on my last two weeks of picks.  If you noticed back on week 12, I had 7 picks I liked.  When I feel that strong about stuff, you ride with it.  I should have noted that the past two weeks I couldn’t even find 4 picks that I liked and grabbed at straws.  That’s a new rule I have incorporated, if you can’t find good picks, don’t take them.  As you can tell this week, I only have 3.

Second, I love the NFL but going to an 18 game schedule is just completely dumb.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch every week and more gambling the better but the teams are going to be so banged up it’ll be ridiculous.  Let’s just look at the QB position right now and keep in mind, you can’t even sneeze on them without getting a penalty.  Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill, Brett Favre (the iron man), Tavaris Jackson (bizzaro iron man) are all hurt, and that’s ONLY the NFC North.  That’s almost half of the QB’s in the north that can’t play this week, insane.  I can’t wait to bet on the WR turned into a QB for the Bears game, that line can’t come up fast enough.

Third, I would just stay away from my quick picks at this point.  I’ve been rolled the past two weeks.  I’m just having a hard time picking games because we all know who the pretenders and contenders are now.  To make the blog quicker, I’ll just put up my picks for that portion with little or no commentary.

Fourth, now I’ve never been the luckiest man in the world (most people that know me are nodding right now) but can you all please root for my division winners, it sure would be nice.  To start the season I picked the Rams at +2000 to win the NFC West, and everyone other than the Chargers to win the AFC West +500, +500 and +600 for Chiefs, Oakland and Broncos respectively.  Also, before the start of last week I took the Bears at +140 (they can take the division this weekend) and Atlanta -200.  Let’s hope they all work out.

Picks of the Week = 3-5 (week 13 & 14), 25-20-2 (blog season total) No comment

Quick Picks = 8-15-1 (week 13 & 14), 43-51-2 (blog season total) Since I’m in a free fall with my quick picks I might as well just make fun of the Packers.  As much as everyone hates Favre now, I love it that he’s gone from the Packers.  Now they will know what it’s like to start multiple QB’s in one season.  You now have a Les Miles led QB taking over the Packers.  Let’s put it this way, I doubt Les Miles groomed him to be a good Pro QB, actually, he wasn’t even a good college QB, good luck with that.  Go Patriots!!!!!!!

Picks of the Week

1.       Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – This is by far my favorite pick of the week.  The one thing I don’t understand, is that the line moved towards the Seahawks, really?  Remember me talking about how over rated that home stadium is, well that still applies for this pick.  Seattle gets blown out by good teams and beats terrible teams no matter where they play.

2.       New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens just look like a mess right now even though they are winning.  The Saints just aren’t getting the pub they should because they’ll get a wild card due to Atlanta just rolling.  Look at the Saints record, second best in the NFC.  They are back to form.  I actually took this game straight up, +120.

3.       Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) – This might be the craziest line movement I’ve ever seen.  I took it this morning and then NFL Network had a story about how pissed off the Redskins were about the benching of McNabb.  In a one hour span that line moved from -7 to -9.5.  I’ve never seen that big of a move on just strictly reports of a team’s moral, crazy.  Glad I got it early.

Games I’m Contemplating

1.       Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-14.5) – This line is huge but the Pats are at home, they are killing people and Rodgers was the only thing holding the Pack together.

2.       Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings – The lines not out but how can you not go against a WR turned into a QB against a very good Bears D.  I’ll have to see what this comes out to be.

Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1.       KC Chiefs (+3) @ St. Louis – Take Chiefs if Cassel starts, Rams if Croyle

2.       Houston Texans (+1) @ Tennessee Titans

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

4.       Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

5.       Cleveland Browns (PK) @ Cincinnati Bengals

6.       Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Miami Dolphins

7.       Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-3)

8.       Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

9.       New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

10.   Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (-8) – Ernie, I know you’re excited for the Tim Tebow drinking game to be back.  If only we could get Verne to announce this game, it would be epic.