Sunday, December 19, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 15

*NOTE* - Make sure to read Ernie’s blog on this week of bowl games.  The blog was initially put together by him for college only.  He was nice enough to allow me to put my two cents in on NFL picks.  I hate that I’m covering up his portion so make sure you scroll down and read his portion.  It’s a ten times better read anyway.
First, I want to say sorry for not putting a disclaimer up on my last two weeks of picks.  If you noticed back on week 12, I had 7 picks I liked.  When I feel that strong about stuff, you ride with it.  I should have noted that the past two weeks I couldn’t even find 4 picks that I liked and grabbed at straws.  That’s a new rule I have incorporated, if you can’t find good picks, don’t take them.  As you can tell this week, I only have 3.
Second, I love the NFL but going to an 18 game schedule is just completely dumb.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch every week and more gambling the better but the teams are going to be so banged up it’ll be ridiculous.  Let’s just look at the QB position right now and keep in mind, you can’t even sneeze on them without getting a penalty.  Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill, Brett Favre (the iron man), Tavaris Jackson (bizzaro iron man) are all hurt, and that’s ONLY the NFC North.  That’s almost half of the QB’s in the north that can’t play this week, insane.  I can’t wait to bet on the WR turned into a QB for the Bears game, that line can’t come up fast enough.
Third, I would just stay away from my quick picks at this point.  I’ve been rolled the past two weeks.  I’m just having a hard time picking games because we all know who the pretenders and contenders are now.  To make the blog quicker, I’ll just put up my picks for that portion with little or no commentary.
Fourth, now I’ve never been the luckiest man in the world (most people that know me are nodding right now) but can you all please root for my division winners, it sure would be nice.  To start the season I picked the Rams at +2000 to win the NFC West, and everyone other than the Chargers to win the AFC West +500, +500 and +600 for Chiefs, Oakland and Broncos respectively.  Also, before the start of last week I took the Bears at +140 (they can take the division this weekend) and Atlanta -200.  Let’s hope they all work out.
Picks of the Week = 3-5 (week 13 & 14), 25-20-2 (blog season total) No comment
Quick Picks = 8-15-1 (week 13 & 14), 43-51-2 (blog season total) Since I’m in a free fall with my quick picks I might as well just make fun of the Packers.  As much as everyone hates Favre now, I love it that he’s gone from the Packers.  Now they will know what it’s like to start multiple QB’s in one season.  You now have a Les Miles led QB taking over the Packers.  Let’s put it this way, I doubt Les Miles groomed him to be a good Pro QB, actually, he wasn’t even a good college QB, good luck with that.  Go Patriots!!!!!!!
Picks of the Week
1.       Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – This is by far my favorite pick of the week.  The one thing I don’t understand, is that the line moved towards the Seahawks, really?  Remember me talking about how over rated that home stadium is, well that still applies for this pick.  Seattle gets blown out by good teams and beats terrible teams no matter where they play.
2.       New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens just look like a mess right now even though they are winning.  The Saints just aren’t getting the pub they should because they’ll get a wild card due to Atlanta just rolling.  Look at the Saints record, second best in the NFC.  They are back to form.  I actually took this game straight up, +120.
3.       Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) – This might be the craziest line movement I’ve ever seen.  I took it this morning and then NFL Network had a story about how pissed off the Redskins were about the benching of McNabb.  In a one hour span that line moved from -7 to -9.5.  I’ve never seen that big of a move on just strictly reports of a team’s moral, crazy.  Glad I got it early.

Games I’m Contemplating
1.       Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-14.5) – This line is huge but the Pats are at home, they are killing people and Rodgers was the only thing holding the Pack together.
2.       Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings – The lines not out but how can you not go against a WR turned into a QB against a very good Bears D.  I’ll have to see what this comes out to be.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.       KC Chiefs (+3) @ St. Louis – Take Chiefs if Cassel starts, Rams if Croyle
2.       Houston Texans (+1) @ Tennessee Titans
3.       Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
4.       Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
5.       Cleveland Browns (PK) @ Cincinnati Bengals
6.       Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Miami Dolphins
7.       Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-3)
8.       Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
9.       New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
10.   Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (-8) – Ernie, I know you’re excited for the Tim Tebow drinking game to be back.  If only we could get Verne to announce this game, it would be epic.

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