Saturday, December 4, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 13 by Greg Sellers

That’s the week I was talking about.  My main picks did really well and my Bears showed that they were a playoff contender by taking down Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles.  On top of that, my first future bet of the season hit.  I had the Ram winning over 4.5 games this year and they hit 5 this past week.  Not only that, I took the Rams as a long shot division winner at +2000 to win the NFC West.  Guess what, they are tied for first right now.  I’m not expecting them to pull it off but I’m glad that I was able to tell that the NFC West was so bad that Sam Bradford had a chance to pull it off.

Another thing I’ve learned, San Diego is a beast right now and I will no longer be going against them.  I hate to say this because I picked them to not win the AFC West but I’m worried that they will prove me wrong.  Let’s hope the Chiefs can keep doing what they are doing and hold them off.  Otherwise, It’ll hurt my overall great season.

As of right now, my picks of the week for this season have been really solid.  Most Vegas gamblers strive for a 60% win percentage.  I’m at a very small shade under that, 59.5%.  Let’s hope I keep it going.  This week was tough though.  I felt really good about 7 picks (the first time I’ve had that many) and I was hard press to find 4 this week.  Proceed with these picks with caution.

Picks of the Week = 5-2 (week 12), 22-15-2 (blog season total) Let’s hope I can keep this going.  I do have a great pick of the week.  The problem is, you guys will be worried who it is.  I’ll explain in a minute.

Quick Picks = 4-5 (week 12), 35-36-1 (blog season total) Not really surprised I finally dipped below even for the season.  It’s tough to pick every game of every week but I enjoy giving it a shot.  There is a reason why I separate my picks I really like from these, I’m not completely confident in everyone.

Here we go with another week.  Hopefully I keep the momentum from last week.  By the way, I’m saving my great pick for the last pick of the week below.

Picks of the Week (in no particular order)

1. Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) – I’m worried about this game the most but if the Chiefs are legit, they should roll.  I realize that the Broncos crushed them earlier in the season but we now have the hand shake deal added along with the Broncos reeling.  The Chiefs have a great home field advantage too, one of the best in the league.
2. New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals – This is my typical ride a hot team until they prove otherwise.  The Bengals are a mess too right now.  There is no need to talk about stats on this one, the Saints should easily take care of business.
3. St. Louis Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals – I put my heart and soul into this blog!!!  You would get that quote if you heard what Derek Anderson said this past week, man was that priceless.  We are who we thought they were, oh wait, I’m mixing up my Cardinals rants now.  Just take the Rams, the Cardinals Blow!!!
4. Chicago Bears (-3.5/-5) @ Detroit Lions – I got this line at -3.5 pre Drew Stanton information.  So they close this line waiting to see who would be starting at QB for the Lions.  It’s official, Stanton is starting, so this line only went to -5???  The Bears were able to take down Michael Vick and win by a total of 5.  Now they are going to play the Lions and are starting their 3rd string QB and the Bears only are 5 point favorites, I just don’t get it.  They are somehow not still not getting respect at this point.  Remember the last team they played on the road that started a 3rd string QB, that was the Miami Dolphins.  Do me favor, check out how many points that team score.  I believe the Bears win and win BIG!!!
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games

1. Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings – Are the Vikes back!?  I need to see it twice in a row.  The Bills have won or been in overtime in their past 5 games. Take the points.
2. Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-5) – If McCoy was starting, take the Browns but if not, ride the Dolphins.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans – I realize Collins is starting but the Titans are a mess right now.  I’m worried that Fisher is out the door.
4. Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants – The Giants will win by not by much.
5. San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-9) – NFC West sucks, they will get crushed.
6. Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Even though they are on the road, they should win this handedly.
7. Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-13) – Lot’s of points but you have to take the hot hand at this point.
8. Carolina Panthers (+5.5) @ Seattle Seahawks – These two teams are so bad I’m just taking the points.
9. Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) – I’m now officially scared of the Colts, is their time finally over???  I guess we will see.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) – Great SNF and MNF games this week.  I’m just going to ride with the home teams.
11. New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3.5) – See above
12. Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8) – TNF, almost forgot about this pick.  Won this one already.

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