Saturday, November 6, 2010

NFL Picks – Week 9 by Greg Sellers

On a roll now!!! I’ve learned my lessons from the past two seasons and it’s starting to pay off.  Hopefully I can keep it going.
Picks of the Week = 4-1 (week 8 ), 11-7-1 (blog season total).  Man, all it takes is one bad call to turn a game around.  Tennessee got a TAINT (touchdown after interception) to really open a lead but had a penalty during the play and two plays later San Diego scored, that’s all it took.  Good week though!
Upset Pick = win, 2-3 (blog season total).  I have picked 2 of the last three upset picks, not too shabby.
Quick Picks = 4-3 (week 8), 17-16 (blog season total).  Now my quick picks are picks I’m not totally sold on.  You can pretty much convince me to go any way.  I have to say, I’m above .500 and I’ll take it.  If I can stay at that level most of the year, that’s a win in my book.
There seemed to be some quirky lines this week.  I’m surprised at that because usually it’s tough to pick lines half way through the season because everyone has a good idea of how good each team is.  The problem with this year, it’s been crazy.  I don’t think anyone can put their finger on the great, good, decent or bad teams (for the most part).  What I’ve been nailing lately are the teams that people still think are good (San Diego, Minnesota, Dallas, etc) or bad (Cleveland, KC, Detroit, etc) because of their preseason thoughts, they haven’t adjusted their thinking.  I was kind of glad to see that San Diego won because now people will think they are back.  I just don’t see it that way (see picks of the week).  That’s been the theme I’ve been sticking with this year, ride with the teams people underrate and pick the opposite side of the overrated teams (in my mind of course).  Hopefully that formula keeps working.
One other note, my picks of the week are sometime done early in the week, so the lines may have moved.  As an example, I took the Chiefs at +3 on Tuesday but now it’s at +1.  Keep in mind that I might have a different thought on a game if it moves that much.  In the case of that game, it would probably drop that pick into my quick picks section because I wouldn’t like it as much.  The quick picks are always done the time the blog gets uploaded.  I just think I needed to note that.
Let’s bring on the winners, hopefully I can put up three smoking weeks in a row.
Picks of the Week (in no particular order)
1.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons – Here’s a theme for this week, I’m going against my kryptonite rule.  I just don’t understand how a divisional game, that’s a battle for first place can be a 9 point game.  This just baffled me.  I love this game a lot.
P.S. My buddy Joe wanted me to inform the public not to take this pick.  Honestly, he needs to shut his mouth but I gave him is 15 minutes of fame any way.
2.       Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Oakland Raiders – At first I was torn about putting this in my picks of the week portion because I’ve been high on both of these teams for a while.  This line does suggest that these two teams are equal but I don’t think so.  Kansas City has a great 1-2 punch at running back and been playing awesome D.  This will be tight but KC will win outright.
3.       San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans (+3) – Let me get this right.  So San Diego finally wins a game against a good team, Houston loses to a great team and they are under dogs at home?  Everyone is waiting for the Chargers to turn it around and you think they’ve done it?  Houston is a much better team; also, Antonio Gates is out.  This is easy, give me the points.
4.       Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens – This one was pretty simple to me.  Both teams are very good, but the Dolphins are undefeated on the road.  Also, they got a bad call in a loss to Pitt at home.  If this line was +3, I’d understand, but this is too much.  The Dolphins will keep this as a close game.
5.       Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles – I just think the Colts are the better team.  Peyton is the man; I don’t know how you ever bet against him.  Plus, it doesn’t matter who gets injured on his team, he makes anyone look good.  The Colts win about 75% of their games each year.  If you ever get a chance, always take points with the Colts with Manning under center.
Upset of the Week
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals – I can’t believe this is my upset pick but I’m going way out on a limb.  The Steelers haven’t been the same since Big Ben came back; they should be 0-2 with him.  I just feel like this is your typical trap game, go Bengals, make me look good.
Quick Blurbs for the Rest of the Games
1.      Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills – Ughhh, my Bears are terrible and they’re above .500.  Here’s the thing, I’m a Bears homer and can’t go against them in this game (which means you should bet the other way).  If they can’t beat the Bills by a field goal or more, I’m jumping off the Big Dam Bridge.
2.      New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina Panthers – They’re baaaaaack!!! At least I think so.  I need to see it two games in a row to start believing, then they can make my main picks portion.
3.      Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Minnesota Vikings – This is your typical this team is falling apart, which way are they going to go, and I have no idea.  I say Minnesota either destroys Zona or they lose outright, no in between.
4.      New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (+4.5) – Because the Lions know how to cover a spread, that’s why.
5.      New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5) – Can you hate and love a pick at the same time?  The Patriots are a damn good team but the Browns are super feisty.
6.      New York Giants (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks – Can we stop talking about how good their home stadium is?  This team is terrible and if this was in East Rutherford, this would be a 14 point spread.  Giants are way better.
7.      Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (-7) – I’m not going to go back through my blogs but I believe I haven’t pick a Packers game correct.  Here’s what I’m doing, I might as well reverse jinx the Bears biggest rival, GO COWBOYS!!!
8.  Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – I realize this is my upset pick but I’m going to add one more note.  Never pick a road favorite, divisional game on MNF.

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